Scottish Open First Round Leader Picks and Predictions: Back Fowler, Ferguson in Scotland

Scottish Open First Round Leader Picks and Predictions: Back Fowler, Ferguson in Scotland

The PGA Tour heads to Scotland, as the PGA and DP World Tours co-sanction the Scottish Open. This means we see a split of players from both tours, making for an exciting event ahead of the British Open.

The Scottish Open First Round Leader market is headlined by the tournament favorites, Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele, and these two add huge star power to this market. This means there is certainly value to be found further down the board, and this is an event where longshots can prosper after day one.

We might see one of the very best players win this week, but I am still holding out hope that a value pick leads after round one, and we will outline how we are going to identify our picks this week, below.

2024 Scottish Open First Round Leader Strategy, Trends

Below, we look at the last five renewals of this event to see who led after round 1 of the tournament. The last five is relevant because this event moved to the Renaissance Club for the first time in 2019, and has played there ever since. The last two years has been co-sanctioned by the DP World Tour and PGA Tour.

Below, you will see the player who led on day 1, the time they teed off and from what tee, and the score that set the pace with on Thursday.

• 2023 - Byeong Hun An (9:27 am #10) - 61
• 2022 - Cameron Tringale (9:05 am #1) - 61
• 2021 - Jack Senior (9:30 am #10) - 64
• 2020 - Lee Westwood (12:27 pm #1) - 62
• 2019 - Romain Wattel (12:50 pm #10) - 63

Three morning starters have prospered here over the years, but the two afternoon leaders in Lee Westwood and Romain Wattel suggest both waves are in play, especially when you consider Davis Riley and Justin Thomas both sat in 2nd after day one in 2023 and 2021 respectively.

Scottish Open First Round Leader Trends

Previous First Round Lead a Sign - Each of the five players to lead here after day one of the Scottish Open since 2019, had already held a first round lead in their career, whether at this level, or lower.

Scottish Open Experience Helpful - Of the five first round leaders here, four of them had already played in a Scottish Open in the past. The only outlier was Jack Senior, who had played in the Scottish Challenge six times, in the British Open twice, and also in the Dunhill Links. He knew what links golf was all about.

Weather Forecast at the 2024 Scottish Open

It looks like the wind will be strongest on Thursday morning, before tapering off throughout the day. Gusts are at their highest from 7 am to 9 am local time, with the biggest drop-off coming at 4-5 pm, where some of the later starters could enjoy some relief.

The weather is very changeable in this part of the world though, so I still think a balance between morning and afternoon starters is wise.

Who in this Field Has Started Fastest on Tour This Season?

Here are the 5 fastest starters in the field based on their Round 1 Scoring Average during the 2024 PGA Tour Season.

• Xander Schauffele (2nd overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 68.00) - Low Opening Round - 62 (PGA Championship
• Collin Morikawa (3rd overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 68.07) - Low Opening Round - 65 (Sentry, Heritage)
• Alex Noren (6th overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 68.75) - Low Opening Round - 62 (Amex)
• Aaron Rai (7th Overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 68.83) - Low Opening Round - 65 (Sony Open, John Deere)
• Ludvig Aberg (10th Overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 69.07) - Low Opening Round - 66 (Heritage, U.S. Open)

What Score is Required to Lead After Round 1 of the Scottish Open?

The average leading score here after round 1 over the past five years is 62.4. In each of the past two years, we have seen co-sanctioned fields, meaning we have seen more PGA Tour players in this field. The last two first round leaders have shot 61, and both of them came from the PGA Tour (Byeong Hun An and Cameron Tringale), so it appears the scoring has got better since the fields got deeper.

I still think a 63 is going to put you in a good position this week, with a 62 perhaps the punchier end of the target.

The Favorites in the 2024 Scottish Open First Round Leader Market This Week

Here are the favorites in the First Round Leader market at the 2024 Scottish Open.

• Rory McIlroy +2200
• Xander Schauffele +2200
• Collin Morikawa +3300
• Ludvig Aberg +3300
• Tommy Fleetwood +3500
• Viktor Hovland +3500
• Joohyung Kim +4000

2024 Scottish Open First Round Leader Picks

Here are five picks, all of which are +4500 and bigger in the 2024 Scottish Open First Round Leader Market.

Erik Van Rooyen +8000 (BetRivers)

I am on Erik Van Rooyen outright, but can he get off to a quick start? I certainly think so, as he's found himself 6th and 35th in recent starts after round 1, and held his first-ever first-round lead on the PGA Tour at the Mexico Open earlier this season too.

One of the reasons I like the South African to win, is the level of consistency he has shown this season, but it's his ability to post some incredibly low scores that pique my interest in this market as well.

He shot a second-round 63 here last year when out of sorts, and on his course debut here, he opened with a pair of 64s to lead after two rounds, sitting just one back on day one as well.

In addition to this strong start here in 2019, he also started fast at the 2018 British Open, where he was one back of the opening-day lead at Carnoustie. That is another Scottish links course, and I love the potential he's shown to start fast in recent seasons, particularly in a test like this.

Van Rooyen ranks 13th in Birdie or Better Percentage and he tees off early at 7:44 am.

Ewen Ferguson +9000 (bet365)

In three starts at this golf course, Ewen Ferguson has finished day one in 24th, 7th, and 7th, which is an unbelievable record.

He might not have threatened the opening-day lead here just yet, but he does have previous in that sense, leading three tournaments after round 1 in the past, and he's also been within one shot of the Thursday lead at the Alfred Dunhill Links, another Scottish links event.

Ferguson is riding a high after winning in Germany last week and he's also qualified for next week's British Open, another event close to home, so this is a great three-week stretch for him.

Not only did Ferguson win last week, but he also sat 2nd on day one, sitting one shot back of the opening-day lead, so he's shown us exactly what we want him to see.

He tees off just before 2 pm, which means he might take advantage of the calmer conditions, and post a low score to start the week.

Nicolai Hojgaard +9000 (BetRivers)

Nicolai Hojgaard also tees off in the afternoon tomorrow and I think the Dane can start his week off quickly with a low round.

Hojgaard missed the cut on debut here two years ago, but he opened with a round of 67 to sit in 7th place, and he returned a year later to shoot a second-round 63 and a final round 67, showing his ability to post low rounds here.

It has been a mixed bag for Hojgaard so far this year, as he looks to acclimatize to life on the PGA Tour, but a second-round 65 last week offers reason for encouragement.

If the rain persists, the players are going to be presented with a soft golf course, and that will suit bigger hitters like Hojgaard who is one of the longer drivers of the ball on his day.

He is the volatile type, and it is hard to know exactly where his game is at, but his irons have improved of late, and a return to the DP World Tour could bring the best out of him.

Three times already in his young career, Hojgaard has held the first-round lead at this level, and 15 times in his career he's been within two of the Thursday lead, so he's prone to flying out of the gates.

Rickie Fowler +11000 (bet365)

Rickie Fowler is an excellent links player, which he has shown in this event in the past, winning back in 2015, and posting three top 10s either side of that as well. Three top 6 finishes in the Open Championship further highlight his suitability for this test, and now he needs to show it at this course.

In the past two years here, Fowler has finished 47th and 42nd, but on both occasions, he's been inside the top 10 after 36 holes so he's certainly more suited to this test than he's shown after four rounds.

Over the last three events, he's been 34th, 2nd, and 4th after round one, opening with rounds of 64 and 66 in the last two events in particular, so he's clearly trending in the right direction.

Whether he can continue his ascension and post a first-round lead remains to be seen, but at +11000, he looks overpriced based on his past two events alone.

Fowler has twice been within two of the first-round lead at this event, albeit at different courses, so I am sure he can step out the gates fast here, as he has done so 10 times in the past when holding the first-round lead.

Eric Cole +11000 (bet365)

Eric Cole was one of the last players off of my outright shortlist, but a bet in the first round leader market is enough for me.

In the last two weeks, Cole has found himself 3rd and 4th after round 1, and a few weeks before that he was 12th as well, so he's clearly getting in the mix on a Thursday. Last week, in particular, he opened with a round of 62, but Hayden Springer (59) and Sami Valimaki (61) just pipped him, as he posted a score that would lead almost every other week.

Last year, Cole was in 15th place after round 1 here and he was actually better placed going into Sunday, as he sat in 5th before a final round 79 ruined his week. I would rather focus on the positives though, which saw him open with a 67 and shoot a moving-day 64 on the Saturday.

Cole has found form again and it's largely been led by fast starts, so I will bet on him making another one here in Scotland.

He has led after round 1 once on the Korn Ferry Tour, and he's been within two of the first-round lead 8 times since playing on the PGA Tour, so there's every chance of another fast start here.