Open Championship First Round Leader Picks and Predictions: Back Aberg, Fleetwood to Start Fast

Open Championship First Round Leader Picks and Predictions: Back Aberg, Fleetwood to Start Fast

It is time for the final major of the season, as the best players in the world tee it up at Royal Troon for the 2024 Open Championship.

We have already picked out our sleepers for the 152nd Open Championship this week, but we are now looking at the First Round Leader Market.

The same culprits lead the way in the First Round Leader market, as the outright favorites, Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Xander Schauffele are the leading candidates here, as they are in the outright market as well.

We haven't landed on any of the leading three in the market, but we didn't get too far down the list before finding our first picks, so let's get into how we made those selections, and hopefully help you land a big winner also!

2024 Open Championship First Round Leader Strategy, Trends

Let's look at the last five Open Championships, as well as the 2016 renewal here, to see if we can find anything that points us toward a First Round Leader here.

• 2023 - Christo Lamprecht (7:52 am), Tommy Fleetwood (9:47 am), Emiliano Grillo (1:26 pm) - 66
• 2022 - Cameron Young (8:25 am) - 66
• 2021 - Louis Oosthuizen (9:58 am) - 64
• 2019 - J.B. Holmes (2:26 pm) - 66
• 2018 - Kevin Kisner (7:52 am) - 66
• 2016 - Phil Mickelson (1:26 pm) - 63

The morning starters have generally had the best of it here in the first round of this tournament, regardless of which course we have played at. Considering the changeable weather, and the variety of venues, it is quite telling that for the most part, the morning starters have had the best of it.

A whole host of morning starters set the pace in the clubhouse before J.B. Holmes pipped them in 2019, and in 2023, Grillo had to match the best morning starters.

Mickelson went lights out from his afternoon tee time, posting four birdies in his last five holes at Troon, coming within a few inches of shooting the lowest round in a major (at the time). Martin Kaymer was 2nd behind Mickelson, also teeing off in the afternoon, teeing off almost 40 minutes after the leader. Patrick Reed also shared 2nd place with Kaymer, teeing off at 8:03 am.

The leader here in 2016 showed you can emerge from the afternoon wave, but will the weather allow? More on that later.

Open Championship First Round Leader Trends

Links Experience - Aside from Christo Lamprecht, who was making his debut in this event and hadn't played the Scottish Open, the First Round Leaders in this event had generally had links experience, with Cam Young at least playing the Scottish Open the week before leading this event after round in 2022.

First Round Leader Experience - Christo Lamprecht aside again, every other First Round Leader in this event over the past five years, and also including 2016, had held a first round lead on the PGA Tour previously.

Weather Forecast at the 2024 Open Championship

Weather in Scotland can change way too quickly to say with any confidence what to expect on Thursday, but as it stands, I do not see any definitive draw bias on Thursday. It looks windy throughout the day, but it doesn't look particularly advantageous in either the morning or afternoon, so I will instead split my picks over the two waves.

Who in this Field Has Started Fastest on Tour This Season?

Here are the 5 fastest starters in the field based on their Round 1 Scoring Average during the 2024 PGA Tour Season.

• Scottie Scheffler (1st overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 67.80) - Low Opening Round - (Travelers, Houston Open)
• Collin Morikawa (2nd overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 67.88) - Low Opening Round - 65 (Sentry, Heritage, Scottish Open)
• Xander Schauffele (3rd overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 68.06) - Low Opening Round - 62 (PGA Championship
• Rory McIlroy (4th overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 68.29) - Low Opening Round - 65 (Players, U.S. Open, Scottish Open)
• Patrick Cantlay (5th overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 68.43) - Low Opening Round - 64 (Amex, Pebble Beach, Genesis)

What Score is Required to Lead After Round 1 of the Open Championship?

63 was the leading score here in 2016, when Phil Mickelson played lights out over the final five holes, piling up four birdies in quick succession, but he led by three that day, and 66 has generally been enough to lead after round 1 of the Open Championship on Thursday.

I would err on the side targeting a 65 on Thursday, just to compensate for the low score shot here by Mickelson, but a 65 or 66 should certainly put you in the mix.

The Favorites in the 2024 Open Championship First Round Leader Market This Week

Here are the favorites in the First Round Leader market at the 2024 Open Championship

• Scottie Scheffler +1600
• Rory McIlroy +2200
• Xander Schauffele +2500
• Ludvig Aberg +3000
• Bryson DeChambeau +3300
• Collin Morikawa +3300
• Jon Rahm +3500

2024 Open Championship First Round Leader Picks

Here are five picks in the First Round Leader market, as we look to close out major season with a win to get the week started.

Ludvig Aberg +3000 (DraftKings)

Ludvig Aberg has been inside the top four at the end of round 1 in 4 of his last 6 starts and inside the top 18 in the last four straight.

The Swede loves a fast start and he was in 3rd place after round 1 in Scotland last week, in an event he probably should have won. The best way to get over the disappointment of last week is to get off to a quick start this week and set himself up for a big week at The Open.

He started fast at the U.S. Open in his last major start, so he has experience getting off to a quick start at a major now, and he can do so again at Troon, which on paper, should suit him right down to the ground.

He is averaging 68.73 in the opening round on the PGA Tour this year, good enough to rank 7th in Round 1 Scoring Average. Back the phenom to start fast here, at double the odds of his outright number.

Collin Morikawa +3300 (BetRivers)

Collin Morikawa has been in fine form in recent weeks, finishing 23rd or better in the last 10 straight events, with four top-4 finishes in his last six starts.

In his last seven straight events, Morikawa has sat inside the top 16 at the end of round 1, sitting inside the top 5 after round 1 on five occasions in 2024.

Morikawa was inside the top 5 after round 1 of the PGA Championship, and that was his first experience of being in that position after round 1 of a major. I think he can now follow that up with another effort in the Open Championship, a title he has already won.

Last week's top 5 finish at the Scottish Open was eye-catching, as it was the only other time he's impressed on a links course, outside of his win at Royal St George's in 2021. Playing so well now, Morikawa looks like he could play well anywhere right now, and his iron play is at a level where I trust him to start fast at the Open this week.

Morikawa has held six first round leads already in his career, which is really encouraging considering they have all come since 2020, with his last coming at the tail-end of 2023. He's due another...

Tommy Fleetwood +4000 (DraftKings)

Tommy Fleetwood loves links golf, and if he were to win his first major here, it would hardly be a surprise. He's overdue a big win, but can he get it done over four rounds? I still (reluctantly) have my doubts, so instead, I will chance that he gets the fans off their feet on Thursday instead.

The Englishman has found himself 3rd, 9th, and 1st after round 1 of recent Open Championships, and he can lead after round 1 of this tournament for the second straight year this week.

Fleetwood has been inside the top 20 after round 1 of his last five straight events, sitting three shots back of the first round lead at both the Memorial Tournament and last week's Scottish Open, making him a prime candidate for this market.

Twice at the British Masters, once at Wentworth, and once at the British Open, Fleetwood loves recording first round leads in the UK, and he can notch another here.

Alex Noren +9000 (Caesars)

If we are looking for a dew-sweeper, Alex Noren is the pick of the bunch, as he tees off at 6:46 am, with Tom McKibbin, and amateur, Calum Scott. This feels like a friendly group, where Noren will be the veteran and perhaps feel freed up to play his own game.

So far this season, Noren has been 7th after round 1 of the Sony, led the Amex with a 62, and twice been in 2nd place in back-to-back weeks at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, and the Wells Fargo Championship. Add him sitting 8th after round 1 last week at the Scottish Open, and that's 5 times in 17 starts he's been inside the top 8 after round 1 of a tournament this season. That is why he ranks directly above his compatriot in 6th place in the Round 1 Scoring charts this season.

Noren has played well in this tournament on multiple occasions and in recent years, he's got off to a quick start on Thursday as well. 12th after round 1 in 2017, 18th in 2018, 3rd in 2019, and 7th last year, Noren has been within three of the first round lead on three occasions now, and knows how to get himself in contention on day one.

A fast start overall, and a player that is clearly comfortable almost every time he tees it up in this event, we should feel good about backing Noren in the First Round Leader Market, especially after he shot bookend rounds of 65 last week.

Emiliano Grillo +15000 (bet365)

Taking Fleetwood and Emiliano Grillo a year after they co-led the 2023 Open Championship on Thursday may seem foolish, but I liked both anyway, before casting my mind back 12 months.

Grillo has flashed some good stuff in recent weeks, even if he hasn't found any level of consistency, and in two of his last four starts, he's been inside the top 16 after round 1. One of those came at the U.S. Open and the other the week before at the Memorial, and a return to this Championship could bring the best out of him.

The Argentine has a funny relationship with this event, he either misses the cut or finishes inside the top 12m there is no in-between. He finished 12th here on debut in 2016, found himself in the same position five years later in Kent, and then posted a career-best 6th place in this event last year.

Grillo was playing far better this time last year, coming off a recent enough win at Colonial and a 15th-place finish at the Travelers, but he has that volatility I like about him, that could see him go deep at a big number.

If his putter behaves, Grillo can get in the mix on day one, teeing off in the afternoon in Scotland.