3M Open First Round Leader Picks and Predictions: Back Bhatia, Coody to Start Fast

3M Open First Round Leader Picks and Predictions: Back Bhatia, Coody to Start Fast

There's no rest for the wicked, as some top talent, such as Tony Finau, Akshay Bhatia, Sam Burns, and Billy Horschel tee it up in the Twin Cities this week, for the 3M Open.

This is one of the most volatile betting events of the year, as there doesn't seem to be much rhyme or reason why people would play well here, outside of the obvious winners, such as Tony Finau, Bryson DeChambeau, and to a lesser extent, and in-form Lee Hodges last year.

What we are interested in here though, is the First Round Leader market, and that only requires a player to shoot one low round this week.

Anything from 62 to 65 has been required to lead here after round one over the years, but can we identify the players with the best chance to hit that number?

Look for players that have relished birdie fests this season, in particular the Mexico Open and the Rocket Mortgage Classic, and then look into some of the strategy outlined below, to see if anyone pops as a good selection for you.

2024 3M Open First Round Leader Strategy, Trends

Below, we look at the first five renewals of the 3M Open, to see what score was required to lead on Thursday, whether the leaders started in the morning or the afternoon, and also what tee they started from - to see if there are any patterns or trends.

• 2023 - Lee Hodges (8:35 am #10) - 63
• 2022 - Scott Piercy (7:01 am #1) Sungjae Im (7:23 am #10) - 65
• 2021 - Rickie Fowler (7:34 am #10), Troy Merritt (7:45 am #1), Jhonattan Vegas (1:39 pm #1), Roger Sloan (2:12 pm #10) - 64
• 2020 - Richy Werenski (12:10 pm #1) - 63
• 2019 - Scott Piercy (12:50 pm #10) - 62

Of the 9 players to lead or co-lead here over the first five years, 5 have come from the morning wave and 4 have come from the afternoon wave - not a lot to split them so far.

Of the 9 players to lead or co-lead here over the first five years, 5 have started their round on the 10th tee, while 4 have started from the 1st tee. Again, splitting hairs.

One thing we have seen is that a 63 or better has been required to lead this tournament outright at the end of play on Thursday, and that should be the target score.

The weather is the only thing that could affect how we pick between the AM and PM starters, so let's see if that's going to be a factor this week.

Weather Forecast at the 2024 3M Open

There isn't a whole lot in Thursday's weather report. There's a bit of rain in the early morning, and the winds are calm, so players may get to start on a soft golf course with no wind, but there is nothing in the afternoon that suggests a player can't go low from the late wave either.

I would advise splitting your picks across both waves.

Who in this Field Has Started Fastest on Tour This Season?

Here are the 5 fastest starters in the field based on their Round 1 Scoring Average during the 2024 PGA Tour Season.

• Ben Silverman (7th Overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 69.00 - Low Opening Round - 62 (Barracuda)
• Rico Hoey (10th Overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 69.12 - Low Opening Round - 64 (ISCO Championship)
• S.H. Kim (13th Overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 69.18 - Low Opening Round - 64 (Cognizant Classic)
• Justin Lower (15th Overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 69.20 - Low Opening Round - 64 (American Express, Scottish Open)
• Hayden Springer (15th Overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 69.20) - Low Opening Round - 59 (John Deere Classic)

Fastest Starters - Last 8 Weeks

Here are the five players in the field this week, that have found themselves making the faste starts in recent weeks, based on their 8-week scoring average.

1. Ben Silverman

• Average Score - 66
• Lowest Score - 62 (Barracuda Championship)
• Round 1 Position Last 8 Weeks (Most Recent Last) - 20th, 9th, 27th, 23rd, 1st

2. Pierceson Coody

• Average Score - 66.75
• Lowest Score - 61 (ISCO Championship)
• Round 1 Position Last 8 Weeks (Most Recent Last) - 50th, 35th, 47th, 1st

3. Patrick Fishburn

• Average Score - 67.17
• Lowest Score - 65 (Barracuda Championship, John Deere Classic)
• Round 1 Position Last 8 Weeks (Most Recent Last) - 20th, 26th, 100th, 15th, 13th, 4th

3. Austin Smotherman

• Average Score - 67.17
• Lowest Score - 64 (Wichita Open, Korn Ferry Tour)
• Round 1 Position Last 8 Weeks (Most Recent Last) - 14th, 56th, 76th, 4th, 27th, 23rd

5. J.J. Spaun

• Average Score - 67.20
• Lowest Score - 65 (Barracuda Championship, John Deere Classic)
• Round 1 Position Last 8 Weeks (Most Recent Last) - 50th, 9th, 15th, 60th, 4th

What Score is Required to Lead After Round 1 at the 3M Open?

This is very simple. Twice in five renewals, 63 has been good enough for an outright lead, with Scott Piercy shooting 62 in 2019. The other two years, there was a logjam at the top, with multiple players shooting 64 and 65.

Shoot a 63 on Thursday and you will almost certainly be the first round leader, and if not, certainly be in contention.

The Favorites in the 2024 3M Open First Round Leader Market This Week

Here are the favorites in the First Round Leader market at the 2024 3M Open

• Tony Finau (+2800)
• Sam Burns (+3500)
• Akshay Bhatia (+4000)
• Luke Clanton (+4000)
• Sahith Theegala (+4000)

2024 3M Open First Round Leader Picks

Here are five picks in the 3M Open First Round Leader Market, all of which are +4000 or bigger!

Akshay Bhatia +4000 (FanDuel)

• Round 1 Scoring Average (Last 8 Weeks) - 68.33
• Round Scoring Average (Season) - 70.14 (67th on the PGA Tour)
• Last Five Round 1 Scores - 69-68-64-64-76
• Last Five Round 1 Finishing Positions - 7th, 6th, 2nd, 1st, 96th
• Birdie or Better Percentage in 2024 - 22.85% (58th)

Barring a blip at the Open Championship last week, Akshay Bhatia has been tearing it up in round 1 in recent weeks, and he can do the same here.

He has the perfect skill set for this course, and ejecting early from the Open Championship might have given him a chance to get acclimated back to the States quickly.

The Rocket Mortgage Classic offers the most obvious correlation and he led there after round 1 two starts ago, opening with a 64. That was a week after opening with the same score at the Travelers to sit 2nd on day one there.

This is Bhatia's 3M Open debut, and while I was wrong about him potentially impressing last week, this event is without a doubt right up his street.

An early tee time and a comfortable pairing with someone like Tony Finau could bring out another special round from Bhatia, who has already led after round 1 twice in his career. Both of those came this season at the Texas Open (where he won) and the Rocket Mortgage (2nd), so if he is going to contend here, it will likely be driven by a fast start.

Adam Hadwin +5500 (bet365)

• Round 1 Scoring Average (Last 8 Weeks) - 70.83
• Round Scoring Average (Season) - 70.37 (83rd on the PGA Tour)
• Last Five Round 1 Scores - 66-74-69-69-75
• Last Five Round 1 Finishing Positions - 1st, 86th, 33rd, 77th, 82nd
• Birdie or Better Percentage in 2024 - 22.84% (59th)

The stats above make for pretty grim reading for Adam Hadwin, other than the first-round lead he held at the Memorial Tournament five starts ago. With that said, he is the type of player to repeat form on his favorite courses, and this is one of them.

Hadwin was sat inside the top 10 after the first round in each of his first three starts here, before stumbling out of the gates last year. At this course, the Canadian's round 1 scoring average is 67.25, good for 8th in the field.

The Canadian has held five first round leads in his career, three of which came on the PGA Tour, and he's always in contention here. His opening rounds here read, 64-67-68-70, and while those figures are trending in the right direction, I still think he's shown enough to suggest he contends for the first round lead here again.

This has proven a good course for Hadwin, who has two top-6 finishes to his name here, and I think he can bring that confidence to Thursday's round.

He's another who will go out early on Thursday morning.

Patrick Fisburn +9000 (bet365)

• Round 1 Scoring Average (Last 8 Weeks) - 67.17
• Round Scoring Average (Season) - 70.80 (131st on the PGA Tour)
• Last Five Round 1 Scores - 67-72-65-66-65
• Last Five Round 1 Finishing Positions - 20th, 26th, 100th, 15th, 13th, 4th
• Birdie or Better Percentage in 2024 - 20.73% (132nd)

Patrick Fishburn's season as a whole has been very volatile, but he's certainly finding his feet at this level, with 5 top-25 finishes in his last 7 starts. The two times he's finished outside of the top-25 during this run of form, Fishburn has still opened with rounds of 68 (20th), and 65 (15th), meaning he's been in the mix before ejecting on Friday.

Whether he can get through four rounds here and win remains to be seen, and that is why I decided against him in the outright market. With that said, I do think he makes a great first round leader candidate, who only needs to go a couple of shots lower at the 3M Open, to post his first career first round lead.

He is brilliant off the tee, 6th, 4th, and 10th in SG Off the Tee in his last three made cuts, and his putting has been strong to match, ranking 72nd, 3rd, and 2nd in SG Putting in the same span.

A good driver of the ball, that is evidently streaky with the putter, Fishburn looks like the perfect type of player for a first round lead.

Jhonattan Vegas +9000 (bet365)

• Round 1 Scoring Average (Last 8 Weeks) - 68.33
• Round Scoring Average (Season) - 70.23 (74th on the PGA Tour)
• Last Five Round 1 Scores - 68-70-70-67-68
• Last Five Round 1 Finishing Positions - 14th, 96th, 50th, 9th, 65th
• Birdie or Better Percentage in 2024 - 23.04% (45th)

Jhonnatan Vegas' career has been plagued by injuries, and as a result, we might be past the point where we feel confident about him winning a tournament. What I won't rule out though, is his ability to go low, especially for one round only.

Last time out at the John Deere Classic, Vegas was able to shoot a second round 64, which he followed up with rounds of 67 and 68. These three rounds were a reminder of what Vegas can do, and it's his off-the-tee game that is catching the eye here.

Vegas has ranked 6th, 8th, and 3rd in SG Off the Tee in his last three starts, and also ranked 10th and 28th in his last two starts in SG Approach.

Clearly, Vegas has found a bit of accuracy of late, and if he can continue to drive the ball well and set up plenty of birdie chances, he only needs a hot putter for round 1 to contend for another first round lead here.

Vegas was one of four players to shoot 64 in the first round of this event in 2021, and the same score would put him in the mix again. He might need to go one lower than he did in 2021 to claim the outright lead, but he's got the blend of course, and current form in his favor this week, after leading after round 1 in 2021 and finishing in 2nd place at the end of the week.

Pierceson Coody +10000 (BetRivers)

• Round 1 Scoring Average (Last 8 Weeks) - 66.75
• Round Scoring Average (Season) - 70.12 (66th on the PGA Tour)
• Last Five Round 1 Scores - 67-70-69-67-61
• Last Five Round 1 Finishing Positions - 50th, 35th, 47th, 1st
• Birdie or Better Percentage in 2024 - 23.90% (21st)

At +10000, Pierceson Coody is very much a punt, but based on recent form, his prowess off the tee, and his overall suitability to the test, I think he is more than worthwhile betting.

He ranks among the best in this group when it comes to Birdie or Better Percentage, and if he can keep his recent form going, he's in for a big end to the season.

Coody has already held two first round leads in his career, one on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2023 and the other two starts ago, at the ISCO Championship.

I like what Coody has been doing with the driver recently, ranking 4th, 33rd, and 17th in SG Off the Tee in his last three starts, and he's brought a hot putter to match, ranking 9th or better for SG Putting in 3 of his last 5 starts.

Pierceson Coody is playing at 8:46 am on Thursday morning in the group behind his Twin Brother, and he will be keen to show him how to score in round 1 of the 3M Open.