Wyndham Championship First Round Leader Picks and Predictions: Back Hughes, Novak for Quick Starts

Wyndham Championship First Round Leader Picks and Predictions: Back Hughes, Novak for Quick Starts

The Wyndham Championship takes center stage this week and while the weather looks likely to cause delays for the first couple of days, we still have the first round leader market to consider.

This weather certainly impacts how you bet in this market this week, and you would be forgiven for skipping it altogether, but alas, we will still be making some picks in this already volatile market!

The problem with adverse weather conditions is that it has the chance to create a huge wave advantage, which could go completely the other way if we experience delays in round 1. For example, the afternoon looks far easier to play in on Thursday, but if the morning players move into the early afternoon or worse still, the first round doesn't even take place until Friday, everything flips!

With this in mind, I will be splitting my picks across the two waves and just praying for a chance.

Let's look at the recent history here at the Wyndham Championship, to see if there are any clues on how to pick a winner in this market.

2024 Wyndham Championship First Round Leader Strategy, Trends

Below, we can see which players have led here after round 1 over the past five years, what time they teed off, from what tee, and the score they had to shoot to lead.

• 2023 - Russell Henley (1:00 pm #1) - 62
• 2022 - John Huh (6:50 am #1) - 61
• 2021 - Russell Henley (8:20 am #1) - 62
• 2020 - Harold Varner III (8:20 am #1), Tom Hoge (12:15 pm #1), Roger Sloan (12:15 pm #1) - 62
• 2019 - Byeong Hun An (8:40 am #1), Sungjae Im (12:20 pm #10) - 62

My first takeaway? It looks extremely beneficial to start on the 1st tee on Thursday. It also doesn't appear to be too important what time you tee off in general. That will of course be different in weather like this, but it's good to see neither wave is ruled out normally.

You probably won't see a 62 this week, but that score has generally been required to lead here, so low scoring should still be expected, especially if they stay off the course during the worst of the weather.

Finally, repeat performances. Russell Henley has led here twice after round 1. Sungjae Im has led here once and sat in 2nd behind John Huh in 2022. Byeong Hun An co-led with Sungjae in 2021 and sat in 2nd behind Henley last year, so it is certainly a case of "usual suspects" at the Wyndham.

Weather Forecast at the 2024 Wyndham Championship

It's grim. We might not get 72 holes in this week, and if we do, it will be an extended day on Saturday, where players will likely play two rounds. Expect the first round to end on Friday rather than Thursday this week.

I'll leave the weather forecast below with you and let you decide how to attack. If the round was played in full on Thursday, you would very much be looking toward the afternoon staters, but who knows how the PGA Tour will handle this one...

Who in this Field Has Started Fastest on Tour This Season?

Here are the 5 fastest starters in the field based on their Round 1 Scoring Average during the 2024 PGA Tour Season.

• Ben Silverman (7th Overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 68.95 - Low Opening Round - 62 (Barracuda)
• Hayden Springer (8th Overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 69.00) - Low Opening Round - 59 (John Deere Classic)
• Justin Lower (12th Overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 69.10) - Low Opening Round - 64 (American Express and Scottish Open)
• Rico Hoey (15th Overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 69.17 - Low Opening Round - 64 (ISCO Championship)
• Andrew Novak (15th Overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 69.17 - Low Opening Round - 65 (Phoenix Open, Cognizant Classic, 3M Open)

Fastest Starters - Last 8 Weeks

Here are the five players in the field this week, that have found themselves making the fastest starts in recent weeks, based on their 8-week scoring average.

1. Ben Silverman

• Average Score - 66.00
• Lowest Score - 62 (Barracuda Championship, 1st Round Leader)
• Round 1 Position Last 8 Weeks (Most Recent Last) - 27th, 23rd, 1st, 24th

2. Pierceson Coody

• Average Score - 66.50
• Lowest Score - 61 (ISCO Championship, 1st Round Leader)
• Round 1 Position Last 8 Weeks (Most Recent Last) - 35th, 47th, 1st, 46th

3. Jacob Bridgeman

• Average Score - 66.60
• Lowest Score - 63 (3M Open 1st Round Leader)
• Round 1 Position Last 8 Weeks (Most Recent Last) - 20th, 26th, 100th, 15th, 13th, 4th

4. Hayden Springer

• Average Score - 66.67
• Lowest Score - 59 (John Deere Classic 1st Round Leader)
• Round 1 Position Last 8 Weeks (Most Recent Last) - 15th, 75th, 1st, 2nd, 136th, 6th

5. Patrick Rodgers

• Average Score - 66.80
• Lowest Score - 65 (Travelers, 3M Open)
• Round 1 Position Last 8 Weeks (Most Recent Last) - 6th, 35th, 27th, 50th, 3rd

What Score is Required to Lead After Round 1 at the Wyndham Championship?

Who knows? It will all come down to the weather, but I think we can expect the highest leading score here for some time, and it might be closer to 65 or 66, as opposed to the 61s and 62s we are used to.

The Favorites in the 2024 Wyndham Championship First Round Leader Market This Week

Here are the favorites in the First Round Leader market at the 2024 Wyndham Championship

• Sungjae Im (+3500)
• Billy Horschel (+5000)
• Shane Lowry (+5000)
• Cameron Young (+5000)
• Si Woo Kim (+5000)

2024 Wyndham Championship Leader Picks

Here are my picks in the 2024 Wyndham Championship First Round Leader Market. Good luck this week folks, you are going to need it...

Mackenzie Hughes +9000 (FanDuel)

• Round 1 Scoring Average (Last 8 Weeks) - 67.20
• Round Scoring Average (Season) - 70.30 (82nd on the PGA Tour)
• Last Five Round 1 Scores - 72-65-66-69-64
• Last Five Round 1 Finishing Positions - 50th, 6th, 23rd, 4th, 2nd
• Birdie or Better Percentage in 2024 - 21.75% (98th)

Mackenzie Hughes has found form, at least in the opening round of his most recent tournaments, placing in the top 6 in three of his past four starts at Thursday's end...

This is not unusual for the Canadian, who has been reliable on Thursdays over the years, leading 5 times on the PGA Tour after round 1, and ending the day within two of the lead 24 times in total.

Hughes has a pretty poor record here overall, but he did open with a 63 in 2019, to sit one shot back of the lead in 3rd place, and he can put himself in the mix again this week, given his recent Thursday efforts.

He might not win the tournament, but he can start fast, and at 90-1, he looks the value this week.

Andrew Novak +10000 (FanDuel)

• Round 1 Scoring Average (Last 8 Weeks) - 67.25
• Round Scoring Average (Season) - 69.17 (15th on the PGA Tour)
• Last Five Round 1 Scores - 66-71-67-66-65
• Last Five Round 1 Finishing Positions - 6th, 75th, 47th, 23rd, 3rd
• Birdie or Better Percentage in 2024 - 23.02% (50th)

Andrew Novak has started well in three of his last five starts, with his 3rd place finish after round 1 last time out his best start of the bunch. That came at the 3M Open, and he can better that again this week, by leading an event he has enjoyed in the past.

On the face of it, his course form of MC-33rd is distinctly average, but Novak settled into 4th place after round 1 last year, opening with a round of 64, and also adding a 3rd round 67 to suggest he can go low here when in form.

With four top-24 finishes in his past five starts and some strong iron play to lean on of late, Novak should enjoy his return to Sedgefield Country Club this week.

Two rounds of 64 at the John Deere, a single round of 66 at both the Rocket Mortgage Classic and the Scottish Open, and an opening 65 last time out at the 3M Open, Novak is firing some low ones of late and that can continue.

15 times since 2018, Andrew Novak has been within two shots of the lead on Thursday, and while he's only converted two of those into first round leads, he's overdue another. Those two came on the Korn Ferry Tour, so now it is time for Novak to experience what it is like to lead from the front at a PGA Tour event.

He's another like Hughes who is scheduled to tee off in the afternoon, which would be advantageous if everyone tees off as planned...

Patrick Rodgers +10000 (bet365)

• Round 1 Scoring Average (Last 8 Weeks) - 66.80
• Round Scoring Average (Season) - 70.35 (90th on the PGA Tour)
• Last Five Round 1 Scores - 65-69-66-69-65
• Last Five Round 1 Finishing Positions - 6th, 35th, 27th, 50th, 3rd
• Birdie or Better Percentage in 2024 - 22.05% (87th)

It's taken a while, but Patrick Rodgers has found his stride in the last few weeks and now that he has cemented his FedEx Cup Playoffs spot, he can freewheel to a fast start here.

Rodgers has never been able to put four rounds together here, but he has opened with a round of 63 to sit 3rd after round 1, only to go on to miss the cut, and he has many rounds of 67 or better around this golf course.

16 times in his career, Rodgers has finished within two shots of the First Round Lead, but not once has he converted this into a First Round Lead of his own. This is the week to do so, as he looks to replicate something like his 63 back in 2019.