BMW Championship First Round Leader Picks and Predictions: Back Matsuyama, Fleetwood For Quick Starts

BMW Championship First Round Leader Picks and Predictions: Back Matsuyama, Fleetwood For Quick Starts

We are down to 50 players in the second FedEx Cup Playoffs event, the BMW Championship.

Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, and Rory McIlroy are all at the top of the market again, but it is Hideki Matsuyama who ruled last week, and players like Collin Morikawa, Patrick Cantlay, and Viktor Hovland will all be looking to have their say as he did last week.

Chris Kirk led after round 1 of the FedEx St Jude Championship last week, edging eventual winner, Matsuyama by a shot, and we will be hoping another player can come from the pack in the BMW Championship First Round Leader market.

This is a course we have not seen on the PGA Tour in 18 years, so we will not have course form to lean on, but we can see if there are any similarities over the years in this event.

2024 BMW Championship First Round Leader Strategy, Trends

Let's look at the last five renewals of the BMW Championship to see if there are any trends we can establish.

2023 - Rory McIlroy (12:10 pm), Brian Harman (12:21 pm) - 65

2022 - Keegan Bradley (10:00 am) - 64

2021 - Sam Burns (11:09 am), Jon Rahm (11:21 am), Rory McIlroy (1:55 pm) - 64

2020 - Hideki Matsuyama (1:09 pm) - 67

2019 - Justin Thomas (10:21 am), Jason Kokrak (12:10 pm) - 65

First of all, this event has been held at four different courses over the past five years, with only Olympia Fields (2020 and 2023) hosting the event twice in that span. Even, the leading score on day one was 67 in 2020 and 64 in 2022, so there really is no sense of what score might lead here on day one.

My best guess would be to average them out and suggest a 65, which will put you firmly in the mix and might be enough to lead after day one, as it has been in 3 of the past 5 renewals.

Rory McIlroy co-led this event after round 1 last year, after finishing 3rd at the FedEx St Jude Championship the week before, thanks to a closing round 65. Brian Harman, the co-leader that week had finished T31, but he had closed with rounds of 68, 67, and 68 after a slow start on Thursday.

In 2022, Keegan Bradley shot a 64 to lead the BMW Championship after round 1. He had missed the cut the week before and was in generally poor form, so there's no real logic behind his first round lead.

In 2021, Sam Burns, Jon Rahm, and Rory McIlroy shared the leader after round 1. Burns had finished 21st the week before and shot a 3rd-round 64. Jon Rahm had finished 3rd the week before and was also the first round leader to kick off his week then as well. McIlroy had finished 44th and had not played that well the week before.

In 2020, Hideki Matsuyama led this event after round 1, he had finished 29th the week before but had at least shot a 3rd round 65 to give us a clue.

In 2019, Justin Thomas and Jason Kokrak co-led after round 1 of the BMW Championship. Thomas had finished 12th the week before, shooting 3 rounds of 68 or better, and Kokrak had also finished 12th, closing with his best round of the week - a Sunday 66.

As expected and in keeping with contending form overall, fast starts can carry over in the FedEx Cup Playoffs as well.

Weather Forecast at the 2024 BMW Championship

There is over a four-hour gap between the first and last starters in the 2024 BMW Championship, so it is worth checking in on the weather at Castle Rock, Colorado, to see if there is any adverse weather expected on Thursday.

The worst of the weather comes from 10 am to 12 pm, so you will either want to target the very earliest starters or hold on until some of the final groups, who will seemingly miss the most of it and play in calmer conditions as their round goes on.

Who in This Field Has Started Fastest on the PGA Tour This Season?

Here are the 5 fastest starters in the field based on their Round 1 Scoring Average during the 2024 PGA Tour Season.

• Scottie Scheffler (1st Overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 67.82 - Low Opening Round - 65 - (Houston Open and Travelers Championship)
• Xander Schauffele (2nd Overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 68.00) - Low Opening Round - 62 (PGA Championship)
• Collin Morikawa (3rd Overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 68.17) - Low Opening Round - 65 (Sentry, Heritage, Scottish Open)
• Alex Noren (4th Overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 68.79 - Low Opening Round - 62 (American Express)
• Aaron Rai (5th Overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 68.82 - Low Opening Round - 65 (Wyndham, John Deere)

Fastest Starters on the PGA Tour Over The Last 8 Weeks

Here are the five players in the field this week, that have started the fastest on the PGA Tour, in the past two months.

1. Justin Thomas

• Average Score - 65.67
• Lowest Round 1 Score Last 8 Weeks - 62 (Scottish Open, 1st Round Leader)
• Round 1 Position Last 8 Weeks (Most Recent Last) - 1st, 3rd, 12th

2. Taylor Pendrith

• Average Score - 66.75
• Lowest Round 1 Score Last 8 Weeks - 65 (St Jude Championship)
• Round 1 Position Last 8 Weeks (Most Recent Last) - 50th, 11th, 6th, 2nd

3. Xander Schauffele

• Average Score - 67.25
• Lowest Round 1 Score Last 8 Weeks - 65 (Travelers, Olympics)
• Round 1 Position Last 8 Weeks (Most Recent Last) - 77th, 4th, 2nd, 5th

4. Chris Kirk

• Average Score - 67.33
• Lowest Round 1 Score Last 8 Weeks - 64 (St Jude Championship, 1st Round Leader)
• Round 1 Position Last 8 Weeks (Most Recent Last) - 17th, 11th, 1st

5. Scottie Scheffler

• Average Score - 67.67
• Lowest Round 1 Score Last 8 Weeks - 66 (St Jude Championship)
• Round 1 Position Last 8 Weeks (Most Recent Last) - 11th, 6th, 5th

What Score Is Required to Lead After Round 1 of the BMW Championship?

We are guessing a bit here, with a course most of these players have never seen, but I am going to set the target at a reasonable score of 65.

Who are the Favorites in the 2024 FedEx St Jude Championship First Round Leader Market This Week?

• Scottie Scheffler +900
• Xander Schauffele +1200
• Rory McIlroy +2000
• Collin Morikawa +2200
• Hideki Matsuyama +2200

2024 BMW Championship Leader Picks

Here are my three picks in the 2024 BMW Championship First Round Leader market this week.

Hideki Matsuyama +2200 (FanDuel)

• Round 1 Scoring Average (Last 8 Weeks) - 68.50 (13th in the field)
• Round Scoring Average (Season) - 70.41 (106th on the PGA Tour)
• Last Five Round 1 Scores - 66-71-75-63-65
• Last Five Round 1 Finishing Positions - 13th, 117th, 82nd, 1st, and 2nd
• Birdie or Better Percentage in 2024 - 22.14% (78th on the PGA Tour)

Hideki Matsuyama has a knack for backing up wins with a strong start the following week, and this was most recently on show when he won the Genesis Invitational in February and followed that up with a round of 67 to sit 2nd after round 1 of the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

I believe in Hideki to keep rolling the putts in as he did all last week, and as a player, we know what upside is on offer, so it would be no surprise to me if he was quick out the blocks this week.

1st and 2nd after round 1 in each of his past two starts, a repeat performance is hopefully on the line, for a player who looks bang in form and is capable of beating anyone on his day.

10th and 3rd in SG Approach in his past two starts, Matsuyama is dialed in with his irons and wedges, and that could lead to him to a second, round 1 lead in three starts.

Tommy Fleetwood +2800 (FanDuel)

• Round 1 Scoring Average (Last 8 Weeks) - 68.50 (13th in the field)
• Round Scoring Average (Season) - 69.94 (17th on the PGA Tour)
• Last Five Round 1 Scores - 67-65-76-67-66
• Last Five Round 1 Finishing Positions - 18th, 8th, 96th, 5th, and 6th
• Birdie or Better Percentage in 2024 - 20:02% (151st on the PGA Tour)

Don't let his lackluster Birdie or Better Percentage put you off, because Tommy Fleetwood is a sold First Round Leader candidate.

In his past five starts, Fleetwood has sat inside the top 8 after round 1, and it is great to see consistency enter his game again, going into crunch time at the FedEx Cup Playoffs.

Fleetwood has ranked 5th and 2nd in SG Approach in his past two starts, and with his irons and wedges trending, there is every reason to think the Englishman can go low on Thursday.

Tommy Fleetwood has held 8 first round leads in his career, four of which have come on the PGA Tour (including majors). Twice Fleetwood has led the Players after round 1, and he's also led the Open Championship after round 1, so he's clearly the man for a big occasion on Thursday.

Taylor Pendrith +5500 (BetRivers)

• Round 1 Scoring Average (Last 8 Weeks) - 66.75 (2nd in the field)
• Round Scoring Average (Season) - 69.70 (40th on the PGA Tour)
• Last Five Round 1 Scores - 65-70-66-66-65
• Last Five Round 1 Finishing Positions - 6th, 50th, 11th, 6th, 2nd
• Birdie or Better Percentage in 2024 - 23.05% (46th on the PGA Tour)

Taylor Pendrith has been on fire in recent weeks, especially when it comes to the first round, so now it is time to record another first round lead.

Over the past five starts, he has been inside the top 11 after round 1 on four occasions, which shows just how comfortable he is at starting fast.

He ranks above average in both Round 1 Scoring Average and Birdie or Better Percentage, so this Pendrith looks set for another big week on the PGA Tour.

Despite his ability to go low and start fast, Pendrith has held just one first round lead on the PGA Tour in his career, but he has held five first round leads in total, across the Canadian and Korn Ferry Tours.