Bermuda Championship First Round Leader Picks and Predictions: Back Hughes, Wu For Fast Starts

Bermuda Championship First Round Leader Picks and Predictions: Back Hughes, Wu For Fast Starts

We are back for another wide-open event on the PGA Tour this week, as a relatively weak field assembles for the 2024 Bermuda Championship.

After an exciting week in the World Wide Technology Championship this past weekend, where Austin Eckroat carded 11 birdies to win on Sunday, we now head to Bermuda for the sixth renewal of this event.

A player may well need to make 11 birdies on Thursday to shoot the lowest round here this week, and that's the type of low-scoring we will be looking for, from a potential First Round Leader.

The weather is this course's biggest defense, as it's otherwise a short course that will yield low scores. We will see plenty of low rounds this week, even with strong winds, but who will end the day in 1st place on Thursday afternoon?

Let's look at the credentials needed to be a contender in the Bermuda Championship First Round Leader Market.

2024 Bermuda Championship First Round Leader Strategy, Trends

We have five years of course form to go by, so let's see if there are any trends we can ascertain from the previous renewals of the Bermuda Championship.

We will be looking at the required score to lead after round 1 each year, the tee the leaders started from, and their tee time. The latter will vary each year depending on a weather wave split, so don't get too caught up in the tee times before looking at the weather report.

• 2023 - Alex Noren (7:12 am #10) - 61
• 2022 - Austin Smotherman (7:51 am #1), Harrison Endycott (1:26 pm #10) - 62
• 2021 - Brandon Hagy (12:48 pm #10), Chad Ramey (1:32 pm #10) - 65
• 2020 - Peter Malnati (8:25 am #1) - 63
• 2019 - Scottie Scheffler (9:14 am #10) - 62

Five of the seven leaders or co-leaders here on day one have teed off from the 10th tee on Thursday, and four of those have also teed off in the morning. Looking at the weather, which we will detail below, the afternoon looks slightly favorable, so I wouldn't get too caught up in that, but the 10th tee trend certainly looks interesting.

Generally speaking, we are looking for a player who can shoot a 62, despite Hagy and Ramey leading with a round of 65 on day one.

Weather Forecast at the 2024 Bermuda Championship

The weather forecast for Thursday's round looks a bit of a mixed bag, but the wind is at its lowest around 2-3 pm, so this is something to consider.

Who in the Bermuda Championship Field Has Started the Fastest on the PGA Tour in 2024?

Here are the five fastest starters in the field based on their Round 1 Scoring Average this calendar year.

• Rico Hoey (4th Overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 68.64) - Low Opening Round - 63 (American Express)
• Henrik Norlander (6th Overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 68.71) - Low Opening Round - 62 (Black Desert Championship)
• Jacob Bridgeman (8th Overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 68.91) - Low Opening Round - 63 (3M Open)
• Doug Ghim (15th Overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 69.12) - Low Opening Round - 64 (Shriners Open)
• Hayden Springer (17th Overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 69.18 - Low Opening Round - 64 (American Express, ISCO Championship)

What Score is Required to Lead After Round 1 at the Bermuda Championship?

In three of the five years here, you have needed to shoot a round of 62 or better to lead here, with Alex Noren's leading round of 61 last year the lowest so far. The 65 looks like an anomaly, so players should be aiming for a 63 at least, and more than likely a 62.

The Favorites in the 2024 Bermuda Championship First Round Leader Market This Week

Here are the favorites in the First Round Leader market this week, ahead of Thursday's Opening Round of the Bermuda Championship.

• Mackenzie Hughes +3000
• Maverick McNealy +3000
• Seamus Power +3000
• Ben Griffin +3500
• Doug Ghim +3500
• Justin Lower +3500
• Sam Stevens +3500

2024 Bermuda Championship First Round Leader Picks

Here are my three First Round Leader picks for the 2024 Bermuda Championship. Can one of these four players end the day atop the leaderboard, on Thursday?

Mackenzie Hughes +3000 (FanDuel)

• Round 1 Scoring Average in 2024 - 69.92 (62nd on the PGA Tour)
• Last Five Round 1 Scores - 64-67-70-70-65
• Last Five Round 1 Finishing Positions - 2nd, 27th, 43rd, 37th, 5th
• Birdie or Better Percentage in 2024 - 22.41% (91st on the PGA Tour)

Twice in his past five starts, Mackenzie Hughes has found himself inside the top 5 after round 1 of a PGA Tour event, and now he can find his way to the very top, for what would be the sixth time in his career.

Hughes has been inside the top 5 after round 1 on four occasions this season, most recently when opening with a 65 at the Sanderson Farms Championship, and before that, the 3M Open. He will now play the Bermuda Championship for the first time, but on paper, this looks a good fit.

This course favors those who have form on short coastal courses, and Hughes has that in abundance. The Canadian has won the RSM Classic, where he was also the first round leader, and he has since finished runner-up on two separate occasions, one time finishing inside the top 5 again on day one. 2nd at the Honda Classic, 6th at an Open Championship, 2nd and 3rd at the Corales, 7th at Mayakoba, and 10th at Pebble Beach all suggest this should be a good course for him, and he's certainly playing well enough to show that this week.

Looking at his previous form, this is absolutely the sort of test Hughes relishes, and we know he is a player who comes out of the blocks fast, so it makes perfect sense that the player who has finished 4th and 8th in his past two starts leads the way in this market. I am not put off by his odds, if anything, I think they look generous compared to his outright number.

I think Hughes will catch a break in the weather during his round, given his 12:03 pm tee time, and that might the difference between him shooting 64 or 62.

Daniel Berger +4000 (DraftKings)

• Round 1 Scoring Average in 2024 - 70.17 (91st on the PGA Tour)
• Last Five Round 1 Scores - 75-65-72-67-74
• Last Five Round 1 Finishing Positions - 128th, 5th, 109th, 32nd, 81st
• Birdie or Better Percentage in 2024 - 22.69% (75th on the PGA Tour)

Daniel Berger is finding his way back after a long absence, and while he is struggling to put four rounds together on any given week, there are flashes that he might not be far away from a really big week.

There have been several low rounds from him recently, and while these have not necessarily come in the opening round, apart from at the Sanderson Farms where he was 5th after day one, he has looked dangerous at any given time during the week.

When 7th at the Sanderson Farms, Berger opened with two consecutive rounds of 65, and a week later he recorded the same at the Black Desert Championship, this time on Friday and Saturday. Two rounds of 67 at the Shriners, followed by rounds of 65 and 66 last week, show that Berger is finding low rounds fairly consistently, and I could see him really taking to this test.

While he's yet to play this golf course, Berger has won at Pebble Beach and finished 5th, finished 2nd, 4th, and 4th at the Honda, 2nd at the Puerto Rico Open, and 7th at the Sony Open, all courses I think are relevant this week.

Berger ranks inside the top 20 for Birdie Average over the past three months, which suggests he's finding his scoring touch, and that could be accentuated here, on a golf course that rewards strong wind players, who have a history of winning already on the PGA Tour - two boxes Berger ticks.

Daniel Berger will tee off in the same group as Mackenzie Hughes and I think their 12:03 pm looks favorable at this stage. The weather can change quickly here, which is why I have picked players across the two waves, so now it is time to look for some morning starters.

Dylan Wu +7000 (Caesars)

• Round 1 Scoring Average in 2024 - 69.54 (32nd on the PGA Tour)
• Last Five Round 1 Scores - 71-69-68-69-69
• Last Five Round 1 Finishing Positions - 54th, 54th, 44th, 62nd, 12th
• Birdie or Better Percentage in 2024 - 22.80% (71st on the PGA Tour)

Dylan Wu has played some solid golf this season, and ranks 32nd in Round 1 Scoring Average, suggesting Thursday is one of his favorite days!

8 times in his career, Wu has found himself inside the top 5 going into Friday, and these have come in Mexico, at the Corales, and at this event last year. Wu opened with a 63 here last year to sit 2nd after round 1, two back of Alex Noren's lead. This was one shot better than he shot in 2022 when he opened with a 64 to sit 8th on day one.

Wu has shot 66 or better in 4 of his 12 rounds here, making him a consistent performer at the Bermuda Championship, and one who can go low, given his opening rounds of 63 and 64 over those past two years.

Last week's 14th-place finish was a big return to form for Wu, who has been struggling for a while now, despite some solid rounds. Now, he's coming back to a course he knows well, and a big week here in Bermuda would go a long way to keeping his card. Currently occupying the 126th spot on the FedEx Cup Rankings, Wu would need to play his way into a card, and that is the sort of motivation we need for a first round leader.

Wu was inside the top 5 at halfway last week, with a second-round 65 vaulting him up the leaderboard to 4th, and while he did admittedly fall away, there were plenty of positives to give us confidence this week.

Peter Malnati +12500

• Round 1 Scoring Average in 2024 - 70.96 (157th on the PGA Tour)
• Last Five Round 1 Scores - 67-76-68-73-69
• Last Five Round 1 Finishing Positions - 12th, 117th, 37th, 117th, 62nd
• Birdie or Better Percentage in 2024 - 19.29% (175th on the PGA Tour)

Peter Malnati's stats make for grim reading, and that makes sense given he missed 11 cuts in 2024. He's also finished no better than 33rd since his shock win at the Valspar.

That win back in March was a clear reminder of what Malnati can do on any given week though, and while he's been searching for form in recent weeks, Bermuda looks like the place to lift his spirits.

In three visits to this course, Malnati is 3/3 for made cuts, finishing 21st, 7th, and 37th. We know looking back at these efforts that he is indeed capable of leading after round 1 because that's exactly what he did on debut, when finishing 21st, following an opening-round 63.

A year later he returned, shooting middle rounds of 65 and 67 to help him towards his first and so far only top 10 there, while 12 months ago he posted his worst finish yet, but still shot rounds of 66 and 64 on Friday and Saturday, respectively.

While Malnati continues to miss cuts, he seems to have one good round a week, and that's all he needs to deliver for us to potentially cash a big winning ticket on Thursday.

Malnati has ended round 1 inside the top 5 an eye-catching 20 times in his career, leading the field on three of those occasions. One of those first round leads came here back on debut, and it's no surprise he's played so well here over the years, given his form at Pebble Beach, PGA National (Honda/Cognizant Classic), the Sony Open, and across multiple Mexican courses.

His three first round leads have come at the Mexico Championship, the Sony Open, and this Bermuda Championship, so it's clear what sort of test he enjoys.