Wyndham Championship First Round Leader Picks and Predictions: Back Griffin, Perez to Start Fast

Wyndham Championship First Round Leader Picks and Predictions: Back Griffin, Perez to Start Fast

It is time for the final regular-season event of the 2025 PGA Tour season, and there are many things at stake.

Some players are playing for a spot in the playoffs, some are playing for their future. Those who finish outside of the top 100 in the FedEx Cup will lose their card ahead of next season, unless they are exempt.

What this means is there are going to be many players in this field desperate to make a fast start and kick off their week in the right way. That might make things harder when looking for a first round leader, but to me, it presents an opportunity.

While I won’t simply be targeting players that are in a desperate position, the extra motivation does make an appeal, especially in this market.

As you would expect, the top of the First Round Leader market correlates with the outright market, but given Matt Fitzpatrick is +2000 to win this event and +4000 to lead after round 1, this is wide open.

Let’s break down all the contributing factors I think are important when assessing the Wyndham Championship First Round Leader market, and look at our picks for the week ahead.

2025 Wyndham Championship First Round Leader Strategy

We have plenty of history to consider at the Wyndham Championship, but to keep this as relevant as possible, we will focus on the last five years of the event.

So let’s look at the players who led after round 1 here since 2020, the score they had to shoot, and the time they teed it up. With this, we can see if there are any obvious trends to focus on.

2024 - Beau Hossler (11:18 am #1 tee) - 60

2023 - Russell Henley (1:00 pm #1 tee) - 62

2022 - John Huh (6:51 am #1 tee) - 61

2021 - Russell Henley (8:40 am #1 tee) - 62

2020 - Harold Varner III (8:20 am #1 tee), Tom Hoge (12:15 pm #1 tee), Roger Sloan (12:15 pm #1 tee) - 62

Unfortunately, Russell Henley isn’t playing; otherwise, my life would be far easier. There are a couple of trends we can focus on, though.

Wyndham Championship First Round Leader Trends Over the Years

Firstly, it seems advantageous to play the course the right way round. By that I mean, teeing off #1 tee is one thing each of the 7 leaders/co-leaders has in common over the past five years.

Secondly, we can see that a seriously low score is required. If you don’t shoot 62 or better in round 1 on Thursday, you’re probably not going to be in contention for the first round lead.

We also see repeat names. Harold Varner III shot an opening round 63 in 2017, three years before he co-led with a 62 in 2020. Roger Sloan has shot four rounds of 65 or better since he co-led here in 2020, showing his affinity for this course; he’d also closed with a 65 the year before. Hoge has also signalled his intent with an opening round of 66 in 2019.

Russell Henley led twice, showing you can repeat first round success here, and while Beau Hossler had only shot a 67, John Huh had shot a second round 62 here and a round of 65 long before opening with a 61 and another.

Simply put, your chosen pick should really have some course experience and form in their locker.

Weather Forecast for the 2025 Wyndham Championship

Below is the weather outlook for the opening round of the 2025 Wyndham Championship.

Here, we will be able to see if there is any tee time bias.

The report above shows that the wind picks up every so slightly in the afternoon, and given that 4 of the last 7 leaders/co-leaders have teed off in the morning, I would lean slightly toward the morning starters.

There’s not much in it, though, and you can split your picks across the waves if that suits.

Who in the Field has Started Fastest on Tour This Season?

Here are the 5 fastest starters in the field based on their Round 1 Scoring Average during the 2025 PGA Tour Season. • Keith Mitchell (1st overall in 2025 - Scoring Average 67.56) - Low Opening Round - 61 (Truist Championship) • Lee Hodges (3rd overall in 2025 - Scoring Average 68.44) - Low Opening Round - 65 (Phoenix Open, Rocket Classic) • Sam Ryder (3rd overall in 2025 - Scoring Average 68.44) - Low Opening Round - 63 (Texas Open) • Harry Hall (5th overall in 2025 - Scoring Average 68.48) - Low Opening Round - 64 (Sony Open, Mexico Open) • Andrew Putnam (6th overall in 2025 - Scoring Average 68.50) - Low Opening Round - 64 (CJ Cup, Rocket Classic)

What Score is Required to Lead After Round 1 of the Wyndham Championship?

62 is the worst score shot by a first round leader over the last five years. That has to be the target score, and even then, there’s room for a lower score again.

The Favorites in the 2025 Wyndham Championship First Round Leader Market

Here are the favorites in this week’s First Round Leader market. • Matt Fitzpatrick +4000 • Aaron Rai +4500 • Ben Griffin +4500 • Keegan Bradley +4500 • Hideki Matsuyama +5000 • Jordan Spieth +5000 • Robert MacIntyre +5000 • Si Woo Kim +5000

2025 Wyndham Championship First Round Leader Picks

With some extremely generous odds on offer this week, I have opted for as many as five picks in the First Round Leader market.

Ben Griffin +4500 (Click Here to Bet With DraftKings)

Ben Griffin has enjoyed a memorable season, and he can return to the spotlight again this week, after a couple of missed cuts in a row.

Missing the cut at the British Open was no real surprise; it can be a hard cut to make, but Griffin will be disappointed with missing the weekend at the John Deere Classic. Hopefully, a couple of weeks' rest is enough for him to reset and come and conquer a course he's finished 4th and 7th against one missed cut, over his three starts.

Before his last two missed cuts, Griffin had sat 6th, 15th, and 14th after round 1 in his three recent events, and that form is more like what we will expect this week. Last year, he was 9th after round 1 here, and he's shot rounds of 63, 64 (twice), and a 65 here, so he's more than capable of going low on any given day at the Wyndham.

Griffin ranks inside the top 30 for Round 1 Scoring Average this season, and if you narrow that down to the past three months, he ranks 9th, so he's a good bet here, at a course he loves.

It will likely take a top player to shoot the lowest round from the afternoon wave, and Griffin fits that bill, with his excellent play this season.

Griffin grabbed the first round lead for the first time in his career at the Memorial earlier in the season, but he's been within two shots of the lead six times in his PGA Tour career since 2022, so he's certainly someone who gets in the mix on a Thursday.

Chris Kirk +8000 (Click Here to Bet With BetMGM)

Chris Kirk ranks 73rd in the FedEx Cup Standings, so a good week here would see him make the playoffs, and that will no doubt be his target. He can set up a good week with a fast start here, something he has done over the years, sitting 2nd after round 1 in 2021, as he shot a 64 in the afternoon wave. He was also 13th after round 1 the year before, so he's enjoyed success here in the past.

Kirk has opened with a round of 66 or better in four of his eight starts here at the Wyndham, and that level of consistency makes him a good target.

Add to his course form the fact he's sat in 7th after round 1 of two of his last four events and top 25 in another, and you've got someone who's a good bet from the early wave.

32 times in his career, Chris Kirk has been within two shots of the first round lead, and he's converted 8 of those into leads, which is a strong rate. Veterans have done well at this course plenty of times over the years, and Kirk has shown enough in his previous starts here to show he could be a factor this week.

Victor Perez +10000 (Click Here to Bet With BetMGM)

Victor Perez is playing some consistent golf of late, finishing inside the top 28 in three of his last six events. Those finishes have been charged by a strong start on more than one occasion of late, as he's finished inside the top 20 after round 1 in five of his last six starts.

The highlight of this run was when he led the Scottish Open after round 1, two starts ago, shooting a 64 to lead a very strong field on the links. The fact that he's consistently sitting inside the top 20 on Thursday is incredibly eye-catching.

He finished 33rd on his course debut here last year, opening with a 66 and breaking 70 in all four rounds. A second go around could easily yield a better result, and I will take a shot on him at +10000 given his recent form.

Perez has held three first-round leads across the DP World and PGA Tours and has been within two shots of the Thursday lead 17 times in total across those two tours.

Ben Kohles +12500 (Click Here to Bet With BetRivers)

Ben Kohles finished 8th at the ISCO Championship and 20th at last week's 3M Open, so he's finding some form, and in both events he shot rounds of 66. This recent scoring shows he can go low, as does his course form, which saw him open with a 65 three years ago, and a 66 last year, despite missing the cut 12 months ago.

Kohles is capable of a low score, finishing 5th and 18th after round 1 of his two most recent starts here and with the perfect blend of Driving Accuracy and low scoring ability, I think he's more than worth chancing at 125-1.

Thomas Rosenmueller +12500 (General)

Thomas Rosenmueller is the only player without any course history that I am going to back in this market this week.

Rosenmueller has finished 29th or better in three straight events, and he opened with a round of 65 at the ISCO Championship to sit 2nd after round 1.

He ranks inside the top 31 in both Birdie Average and Round 1 Scoring Average over the past three months, and that consistency suggests he could get off to a fast start here.

The German has ranked 14th and 20th in SG Approach and 3rd and 6th in SG Tee to Green over his past two events, so his ball striking is right where it needs to be to set up the birdie chances needed to lead here on day one.