2025 PGA Championship Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Cantlay, Aberg at Quail Hollow
The 2025 PGA Championship will get underway from Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte this week. Outside of Rory and Scottie as the main favorites, who should you take a chance on as a sleeper pick? Matt MacKay has his eye on Patrick Cantlay and Ludvig Aberg, among a few other value plays for the 2025 PGA Championship.
Matt MacKay - May 12, 2025, 4:45 PM EDT
6 min2025 PGA Championship Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Cantlay, Aberg at Quail Hollow
The 2025 PGA Championship is the second major of the year, taking us to Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina this week. Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy are the clear-cut betting favorites at +450 and +500 odds.
Other notable betting favorites ahead of Round 1 on Thursday include Bryson DeChambeau (+1000), 2024 PGA Championship winner Xander Schauffele (+2000), Jon Rahm (+2000), as well as Collin Morikawa and Justin Thomas at +2200 odds. Thomas won the 2017 PGA Championship at Quail Hollow Club, while Morikawa won the 2020 PGA Championship at TPC Harding Park in San Francisco, California. DeChambeau recorded a runner-up finish behind Schauffele at Valhalla last year.
There are quite a few sleepers and value picks to target in the outright winner market at the 2025 PGA Championship. Previous major winners, including golfers currently playing on LIV, will compete in this field with a cut line enforced.
Quail Hollow Club is a lengthy par 71, running over 7,600 yards. It demands precision and distance off-the-tee, with greens running up to 12.5 feet via Stimpmeter. Greens in regulation aren't as important here, since areas of the green play at different reads and speeds. Water hazards and bunkers present, along with tree-lined fairways. Underwent recent tee box and green renovations. "Green Mile" is the difficult final three-hole stretch at Quail Hollow, without a par 5 in play.
PGA handicapper Matt MacKay is back to share several of his top sleepers and value picks to bet ahead of the PGA Championship with the latest odds. Each pick is a worth a one-unit wager. Follow Matt's X account for more PGA betting analysis and free picks throughout the 2025 PGA Tour season.
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2025 PGA Championship Odds
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2025 PGA CHAMPIONSHIP DATE, TIME, AND WHERE TO WATCH
- Date: Thursday, May 15 - Sunday, May 18, 2025
- Time: 7:00 AM - 8:00 PM ET
- How to Watch: ESPN+, ESPN, Paramount+, CBS
2025 PGA Championship Sleepers and Value Picks
Ludvig Aberg (+2500) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best PGA Championship odds
Ludvig Åberg is a solid value at 25-1, even though he's still a top-eight betting favorite with the latest PGA Championship odds. The Swede recorded an outright win earlier this year at The Genesis Invitational at Torrey Pines South, which is a lengthy, difficult course profiling similar to Quail Hollow Club.
Åberg missed the cut in his debut at the 2024 PGA Championship. This will also mark his debut at Quail Hollow Club.
Ranked 10th SG: Off-the-Tee, including 27th in driving distance and sixth on approach shots from 200+ yards, Åberg is also 21st in proximity. Approach shots and putting have been volatile in 2025 but Åberg has enough talent to make a run atop the leaderboard at Quail Hollow.
I'd sprinkle a quarter unit (0.25) on Åberg to win his first major at 25-1 odds, returning over six units of profit.
Patrick Cantlay (+4500) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best PGA Championship odds
Patrick Cantlay is due for an outright win on the PGA Tour soon. It's been three years since his last outright victory at the 2022 BMW Championship but Cantlay is playing well right now, recording a T4 finish at the Truist Championship with a final round 65 in Philadelphia.
We've seen Cantlay help win the Presidents Cup at this course in 2023. He's logged a pair of top 30 finishes at the 2023 and 2024 Wells Fargo Championship events as well.
Ranked 12th total strokes gained, including 10th SG: Approach, third at greens in regulation rate, and 28th putting average, Cantlay could be poised for a breakthrough win at Quail Hollow this week. He's 20th in scoring average, 16th in birdie average and third on par 4s.
Volatile putting is the biggest hurdle for Cantlay to overcome. His best PGA Championship finish was T3 in 2019. Recorded a T53 at Valhalla last year, with a T9 at the 2023 PGA Championship at Oak Hill CC in Rochester, New York.
A 0.10 unit sprinkle is sufficient on Cantlay to win this week at 45-1 odds, returning 4.5 units of profit.
Sungjae Im (+9000) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best PGA Championship odds
Sungjae Im has played well at Quail Hollow during his career. The South Korean golfer has a pair of top 10 finishes in his last two appearances at this course during the 2023 and 2024 Wells Fargo Championship.
Im's best finish at the PGA Championship was a T17 in 2021 in Kiawah. He missed the cut in 2023 and 2024.
Im currently ranks as one of the best short game golfers on the PGA Tour. Ranked 26th SG: Putting, third in putting average, and 12th in birdie average, his inability to be consistent with his approach shots has been the biggest issue to overcome in 2025.
Im i top 20 on par 4s, 24th in scoring average and ninth in driving accuracy. This comes down to whether or not he can dial in his irons, which we've seen him do well in previous events held at Quail Hollow.
90-1 is too long for Im in the outright winner market. Let's add another 0.10 unit sprinkle on Im to record his first major win to grab nine units of profit. It would end a four-year win drought on the PGA Tour.
Maverick McNealy (+11000) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best PGA Championship odds
Maverick McNealy has been heating up in 2025, quickly making a name for himself on the PGA Tour. The 29-year-old has yet to log a top 20 finish in four appearances at the PGA Championship but he's set up for the best finish yet in 2025.
Enters Quail Hollow with five top 10 finishes this season, including a runner-up to Ludvig Åberg at the Genesis Invitational. Ranked 35th in total strokes gained, including 30th SG: Approach, 40th SG: Putting and 26th at finding greens in regulation. 37th in birdie average as well.
McNealy's lone appearance at Quail Hollow resulted in a missed cut at the 2021 Wells Fargo Championship. I expect him to be in better form this week, leaning on his irons and putter to climb the leaderboard.
Disappointing showing at the Truist Championship with a T60 finish. Recorded a pair of T3 finishes at the Valero Texas Open and RBC Heritage in April, intersected with a pedestrian T32 finish at The Masters.
110-1 warrants one final 0.10 unit sprinkle on McNealy to grab his first win at a major and second win on the PGA Tour this week.
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