Saturday Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks: Kentucky Derby and Oaks Prep Picks for Gotham and Busher Invitational

Saturday Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks: Kentucky Derby and Oaks Prep Picks for Gotham and Busher Invitational

On Saturday, March 5, Aqueduct Racetrack features Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby Prep races in the Busher Invitational (Oaks) and the Grade III Gotham (Derby). Get my analysis and picks for both of Saturday’s Oaks and Derby Prep races in New York.

Race 9 – Kentucky Oaks Prep Race (50 points to the winner)

• Distance: 1 mile
• Name: The Busher Invitational
• Age: 3-years-old (fillies)
• Surface: Dirt

This six-horse field features only one double-digit long shot, Shotgun Hottie (12-1), while everyone else is between 6-1 and 7-5 on the morning line. Magic Circle (3-1) and Venti Valentine (7-2) will sit first and second at the quarter pole as they did at the Grade II Demoiselle Stakes back in December. In that race they were both tracked down and passed by Nest, who is one of the more impressive fillies in the 3-year-old crop. This time, Magic Circle will try to nurse a comfortable lead and have plenty left kicking for home as she’s shortening up over her two most recent efforts that were an extra furlong. However, her last time out was aided by severe rail bias and might end up being an outlier.

As a result, it is hard to look past morning line favorite Radio Days (7-5), a Gun Runner progeny, who will sit off the pace and make a run around the far turn. She’s stretching out to a mile for the first time, but she’s been incredibly consistent in terms of her speed figures and has two wins and a second in three career starts. She probably wouldn’t mind if Venti Valentine pushed Magic Circle but should be close enough to the leaders that she won’t need to make up too much ground in the stretch. Meanwhile, Morning Matcha may need more speed up front to run into but will like the mile distance. Sterling Silver (6-1) is stretching out from 6 ½ furlongs and benefitted from the inside rail bias last time out. From a wagering standpoint, does not offer a lot but Radio Days is probably safe to use as a single in horizontal wagers.

Race 9 Picks

• Win: Radio Days
• Place: Magic Circle
• Show: Morning Matcha

Click Here for the Best Sportsbook Promotions Available in Your State

Race 10 – Kentucky Derby Prep Race (50 points to the winner)

• Distance: 1 mile
• Name: The Gotham – Grade III
• Age: 3-years-old
• Surface: Dirt

Let’s start this Derby prep discussion with a horse that may end up earning zero points if he wins, which is Rockefeller (4-1), trained by Bob Baffert who is currently suspended by Churchill Downs from entering horses in the Derby for the next two years. Rockefeller is shipping east for the second time after winning the Grade III Nashua last time he was in the Empire State. He’s a “need the lead” type of horse as evidenced by his second-place finish at the Grade III Sham Stakes last time out. The problem for Rockefeller is that Bold Journey (6-1), Dean’s List (7-2), Fromanothamutha (6-1), and Golden Code (8-1) also all want the early lead. Breaking from the far outside in a one-turn mile should give Rockefeller some assistance in clearing the field, but it’s far from a given. Dean’s List is probably the most serious contender from the group with early speed as he’s won both his starts down at Gulfstream but is stretching out for the first time. His trainer, Todd Pletcher, is as good as they come at preparing horses for going longer distances and Dean’s List beat a very good field last time out.

Fromanothamutha should really like a one-turn mile and has run gamely against horses like Mo Donegal and My Prankster but is also erratic and may fade down the stretch with the amount of early speed in this field. This leave the door open for two horses who should be just behind the early speed, Morello (3-1) and Glider (8-1). Glider lost to Emmanuel last time out who is running in Saturday’s Fountain of Youth down at Gulfstream Park. Glider has shown rapid improvement since coming off the synthetic in his debut effort and while Pletcher may have originally wanted him on turf, Quality Road progeny are versatile, and he’s turned into a nice dirt horse who could get a good trip. Morello meanwhile has won his first two starts by a combined 9 ¼ lengths while gradually stepping up in distance. The one-turn mile should not be a problem. A replication of his last effort is probably good enough to win but I’d expect the Asmussen colt to continue to progress and the hot pace should suit him perfectly.

Race 10 Picks

• Win: Morello
• Place: Glider
• Show: Dean’s List

Click here for the best offers in your state