Napoli vs Bologna Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest Serie A Odds - Monday, May 11th
A clash of contrasting ambitions awaits in Serie A as second-placed Napoli host Bologna, who currently sit tenth in the league standings. The fixture is set to kick off at 19:45 BST on Sunday 11th May 2026 at Napoli's home ground.
OC Staff - May 11, 2026, 7:00 AM EDT
3 Minute ReadNapoli vs Bologna: Lineups, Team News and Prediction
A clash of contrasting ambitions awaits in Serie A as second-placed Napoli host Bologna, who currently sit tenth in the league standings. The fixture is set to kick off at 19:45 BST on Sunday 11th May 2026 at Napoli's home ground.
Napoli vs Bologna Form
The hosts, Napoli, come into this game following a goalless draw away against Como in their last outing. Over their last six matches across all competitions, Napoli have registered two wins, two draws, and two losses. During this period, they've found the net six times while conceding four. Notably, five of Napoli's last six Serie A games have seen under 2.5 goals scored, suggesting a recent trend towards tighter encounters for the Partenopei.
Bologna's recent form paints a bleaker picture. Their last match also ended in a 0-0 draw at home against Cagliari, but this result follows a string of defeats. In their last six games across all competitions, Bologna have failed to secure a single victory, managing just one draw and suffering five losses. They have only scored one goal in this period, conceding a significant eleven. Alarmingly, Bologna have failed to score in their last three Serie A matches, and six of their last seven Serie A games have featured under 2.5 goals.
Napoli vs Bologna Head to Head
The most recent encounter between these two sides saw Napoli secure a 2-0 victory over Bologna in the Supercoppa Italiana in December 2025.
Looking at their last six meetings across all competitions, the rivalry has been evenly contested. Both Napoli and Bologna have recorded two wins each, with two matches ending in a draw. Interestingly, five of these last six matches between the two teams have also seen under 2.5 goals scored, reinforcing the expectation of a low-scoring affair.
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Napoli vs. Bologna Odds
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Napoli vs Bologna Probable Lineups
Napoli (3-4-3):
Milinkovic-Savic; Olivera, Buongiorno, Rrahmani; Spinazzola, Lobotka, Anguissa, Politano; McTominay, Højlund, De Bruyne
Bologna (4-2-3-1):
Ravaglia; Miranda, Lucumí, Heggem, Mário; Freuler, Moro; Ferguson, Orsolini, Rowe; Castro
Napoli vs Bologna Team News
Napoli face several key absences for this fixture. David Neres is sidelined with a thigh strain, while Antonio Veragara is also out due to a thigh injury. Giovanni Di Lorenzo will miss the match with a groin injury, and Romelu Lukaku is unavailable due to a hip injury. These injuries could impact Napoli's attacking options and defensive stability.
Bologna also have their share of injury concerns. Kevin Bonifazi is out with an abdominal strain, Federico Bernardeschi is nursing a hip injury, and Lukasz Skorupski is sidelined with a hamstring issue. Nicolo Casale is also unavailable due to injury. These absences will test Bologna's squad depth, particularly in defence and midfield.
Napoli vs Bologna Match Facts
- There have been under 2.5 goals scored in 5 of Napoli's last 6 games in Serie A.
- Napoli have seen under 2.5 goals in 5 of their last 6 matches against Bologna in all competitions.
- Bologna have failed to score in their last 3 matches in Serie A.
- There have been under 2.5 goals scored in 6 of Bologna's last 7 games in Serie A.
Prediction: Napoli 1-1 Bologna
This encounter is poised to be a tight affair, with the data suggesting a low-scoring outcome. Napoli, despite their higher league position and superior average rating (6.62 vs 6.56), have shown a recent propensity for matches with under 2.5 goals. The hosts boast strengths in "Finishing scoring chances" and "Creating chances through individual skill," and are predicted to "score as a result of individual skill" or "an opposition error." They also possess the ability to "come back from losing positions," highlighting their resilience.
However, Bologna, despite their poor recent overall form, have a decent head-to-head record against Napoli and demonstrate strengths in "Defending set pieces" and "Creating long shot opportunities." While they have clear weaknesses such as "Protecting the lead" and "Avoiding individual errors," Napoli's "non-aggressive" style of play might not fully exploit these vulnerabilities. Bologna's recent struggles in front of goal are a major concern, having failed to score in their last three Serie A outings. Yet, the prediction of a 1-1 draw implies they will manage to break their goal drought. Given the tight nature of recent meetings and both teams' tendency for low-scoring games, a hard-fought draw seems a plausible outcome.
Best Bet: Under 2.5 Goals Click here to get the best odds at Caesars Sportsbook
Considering the prediction of a 1-1 draw and the overwhelming statistical evidence, a strong betting angle for this match is Under 2.5 Goals. Five of Napoli's last six Serie A games have finished with fewer than three goals, a trend mirrored in six of Bologna's last seven Serie A fixtures. Furthermore, five of the last six head-to-head encounters between these two sides across all competitions have also seen under 2.5 goals. This consistent pattern across recent form and historical clashes makes this a highly attractive bet.
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