USA vs. Portugal World Cup Betting Picks, Best Bets, and Predictions
USA vs. Portugal World Cup Betting Picks, Best Bets, and Predictions
The United States and Portugal square off for the final round of the group stages. Portugal lost to the Netherlands and beat Vietnam, while the United States beat Vietnam and tied the Netherlands.
USA vs. Portugal Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds
- Date: August 1, 2023
- Time: 3:00 am ET
- Where to Watch: FOX
Click here for the latest USA vs. Portugal Odds
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The both teams' market has been very popular, with the “no” option hitting at an insane rate this tournament. While no is definitely the option I would bet, it sits at -220 or worse on most sportsbooks. I think that’s a fairly unplayable number, considering the United States is definitely going to score. Portugal is most likely held scoreless, but I would prefer to dabble in markets like “correct score” sprinkling on the USA to win 2-0. I think a better alternative bet to BTTS “no” would be USA to win either 1-0, 2-0, or 3-0 “score bands” on DK for -160.
The United States have only allowed one shot on target this tournament, and Portugal will have minimal offensive opportunities. We backed the under in the last matchup, and it remains at 2.5 for this game. The US have scored 2 or less goals in 7 of their last 8 international games, with Vietnam being the exception. They have immense offensive talent, but still plenty of cohesiveness and team chemistry issues. They are a team that constantly changed the lineup before the tournament (injures were a factor), and it shows! I think this game stays under the total, but the United States offense should look better on offense. They haven't quite dominated possession yet, but they should be able to assert themselves here.
Portugal is a defensive minded team with plenty of cohesion, considering all the team experience and the players familiarity with each other . They held the Netherlands to only one goal and five shots on target, shut out Vietnam, and shut out England in a recent summer friendly. I think they will lose this game, but they should be fairly resistant on the defensive side of the ball.
The United States took 28 and 18 shots in their first two games, and I expect them to be aggressive here. While the Portugal defense is good, the American side really hasn’t played anywhere close to the talent level they present. I’m not sure how many they put in the net, but I expect the United States to dominate possession and have plenty of scoring opportunities. I think that makes them very appealing in the corners market, and I took them to have 5 corners and parlayed it with Horan 2+ shots, which has cashed in all 3 international games this year. Horan has locked in dependable minutes, and is known to take shots from both inside and outside the box, being a focus on set pieces. Corners at the base 6.5 price is good, and 5 is one of my favorite parlay pieces in the game.
Last game we cashed our Longshot, Rose Lavelle to have an assist +350. While the price has gotten worse, I do like this bet once again. Beyond just the corner opportunities, Lavelle has shown her importance as a key facilitator on this team. Despite only playing limited minutes in her first two games, I think she plays the full match today. She’s priced at +175 and I think that's worth a bet. My second favorite option in that market is Sophia Smith at +250, which feels like good odds considering her offensive opportunity. Finally, if you can bet any unders on Megan Repinoe then you should, I don't see any options, but she’s being priced by name value, not role!
USA vs. Portugal Betting Picks
- PICK: 1 unit - USA Score bands (-160) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
- PICK: 0.5 units - Under 2.5 (+100) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
- PICK: 0.5 units - Under 3.5/USA ML (-130) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
- PICK: 0.5 units - 5+ Corners/Horan 2+ shots (-134) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds