Australian Open Semifinal Predictions: Novak Djokovic vs. Tommy Paul, Karen Khachanov vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas
Australian Open Semifinal Predictions: Novak Djokovic vs. Tommy Paul, Karen Khachanov vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas
Entering the Australian Open, Novak Djokovic figured to be the talk of the tournament after not being eligible to participate last year, as he was deported from the country after not receiving the COVID-19 vaccine. The Serbian has dominated the major like no other before him. Djokovic won three consecutive Australian Open titles from 2019-21 before last year's ban. He is looking to extend his record to 10 Australian Open titles (no other player has more than six).
Can American Tommy Paul offer any resistance in the semifinal and pull a massive upset? Who has the edge in the other semifinal between No. 18 seed Karen Khachanov and No. 3 seed Stefanos Tsitipas? Tennis expert Mike Spector breaks down both Men's Australian Open semifinal matches.
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Novak Djokovic vs. Tommy Paul Prediction
This is the first-ever meeting between Djokovic and Paul, and on paper, there have been few more mismatches in a men's Grand Slam semifinal in recent memory. Paul has just 12 more wins than losses in his career and has one ATP title, while Djokovic has won 92 titles and is motivated to tie Rafael Nadal's record of 22 major victories.
Paul outlasted two fellow Americans (Jenson Brooksby and Ben Shelton) so far this tournament, but his two matches against seeded players were much more grueling. Paul needed a combined nine sets to beat No. 24 Roberto Bautista Agut and No. 30 Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, while Djokovic has won 11 consecutive sets and dropped just 27 games in that span.
Djokovic is 39-0 in his previous 39 ATP main draw matches in Australia and has won the first set in 27 of his last 28 completed ATP main draw matches. While Paul has covered the game spread in seven consecutive ATP main draw matches against older opponents, none are as seasoned or dominant in this tournament as Djokovic.
Novak Djokovic vs. Tommy Paul Pick
- Djokovic -7.5 games (-160) Bet $100 to collect $162. DraftKings has the best odds, click here to bet
Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Karen Khachanov Prediction
While the two opponents in the first semifinal have not faced each other before, the rivalry between Tsitsipas and Khachanov has been one-sided. Tsitsipas has won all five head-to-head meetings with Khachanov, all since 2017. Four of those victories came on hard court, with three decided in straight sets.
While Tsitsipas has dominated Khachanov, none of the previous five meetings were in a best-of-five setting. Khachanov has played all tournament aggressively, and we look for him to be competitive in this match by attacking the weakest part of Tsitsipas's game, his backhand. And despite winning 79% of his first serve points in the quarterfinal against Jiri Lehecka, Tsitsipas still conceded eight break point opportunities. His opponents are now 6-for-49 in converting break chances throughout the tournament. By comparison, Khachanov has allowed 33 break-point chances, and his more consistent serve will allow him success.
Khachanov has lost in straight sets in just one of his previous 24 Grand Slam matches, and he has covered the game spread in eight of his last nine. Thus, we expect this match to go at least four or five sets and are backing the Over on total games.
Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Karen Khachanov Pick
- Tsitsipas-Khachanov Over 39.5 games (-125) Bet $100 to collect $180. DraftKings has the best odds, click here to bet
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