Lorenzo Sonego vs. Ignacio Buse Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest ATP Rome Italian Open Odds for Thursday, May 7th

Lorenzo Sonego vs. Ignacio Buse Prediction: Expect a Three-Set Battle in Italian Open First Round on Thursday

Lorenzo Sonego and Ignacio Buse meet Thursday, May 7, at 1 p.m. ET in the Round of 128 at the Italian Open, with both players looking for a needed foothold on the clay in Rome. Sonego brings the home-crowd edge and the higher-level résumé, while Buse arrives as the younger, in-form clay-court threat with enough baseline stability to make this a difficult opener.

The market points toward a competitive match rather than a clean result. Buse has been the steadier player this spring, but Sonego’s experience, crowd support, and ability to raise his level in front of Italian fans make this a dangerous spot for the favorite. With over 2.5 sets priced at +125, the best angle is built around a match that swings both ways before either player gets through.

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Lorenzo Sonego vs. Ignacio Buse Odds

• Moneyline: Sonego (+135), Buse (-160)

Lorenzo Sonego vs. Ignacio Buse Date, Time, and Where to Watch

• Date: Thursday, May 7th, 2026
• Time: 12:00 PM ET
• Where to Watch: Tennis Channel

Click here for complete Sonego vs. Buse Odds

Lorenzo Sonego vs. Ignacio Buse Prediction

Sonego’s recent form has been uneven, with losses to Mattia Bellucci, Dusan Lajovic, Andrey Rublev, and Lorenzo Musetti among his latest results, though he did pick up a clay win over Pedro Martinez in Barcelona. That record does not scream confidence, but context matters. Sonego has played a tougher main-tour schedule, and his serve plus first-strike forehand can still buy him holds even when his overall form is not clean. In Rome, that matters even more because the crowd can help him turn one loose service game or one long set into real momentum.

Buse has the stronger form profile entering the match. He beat Adrian Mannarino in Madrid, pushed Arthur Fils to three sets, then won back-to-back matches at the Aix-en-Provence Challenger before falling to Alejandro Tabilo. His broader numbers point to a player who is comfortable on clay, especially in extended rallies and return games. Buse has also been stronger in recent deciding sets, which gives him a real case if the match turns into a grind.

There is no previous head-to-head meeting, which adds to the volatility. Sonego has the more established tour-level profile, but Buse has been the more reliable match-to-match player in recent weeks. The matchup should come down to whether Sonego can protect enough service games and use the Rome crowd to force scoreboard pressure, or whether Buse’s return consistency and clay-court rhythm slowly pull the match away from him. With both players comfortable enough on the surface and neither side entering with a dominant form edge at this level, a three-set path is very live.

Lorenzo Sonego vs. Ignacio Buse Best Bet

• Best Bet: Alex Michelson (+125) Check out the best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook

The best bet is over 2.5 sets at +125. Buse deserves respect as the in-form player, but Sonego’s experience, home advantage, and ability to steal a tight set make a straight-sets result less attractive. This profiles as a match where Buse can control enough rallies to win long stretches, while Sonego has enough serve, power, and crowd energy to answer. At plus money, the over 2.5 sets is the cleanest play in a Round of 128 match that should be tighter than the moneyline suggests.

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