Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs. Daniil Medvedev Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest ATP Rome Italian Open Odds for Monday, May 11th
Daniil Medvedev will be another solid favorite in the Italian Open Round of 32 on Monday morning. Can he avoid the upset against Pablo Llamas Ruiz? Let's take a look at the latest ATP Rome Italian Open odds for Monday, May 11th.
Peter Alexis - May 11, 2026, 6:30 AM EDT
4 Minute ReadPablo Llamas Ruiz vs. Daniil Medvedev Prediction: Can Medvedev Avoid Upset in Round of 32 at Italian Open on Monday Morning?
Pablo Llamas Ruiz and Daniil Medvedev meet Monday in Rome, with the match scheduled for 10:10 a.m. ET at the Italian Open. Medvedev is the clear favorite at -245, while Llamas Ruiz comes back at +198 after battling through multiple matches already in the tournament.
Medvedev is the better player and should still be expected to advance, but Rome has not always been a clean setting for him despite his past title here, and Llamas Ruiz has already shown enough fight in this draw to make the favorite work.
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Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs. Daniil Medvedev Odds
- Moneyline: Llamas Ruiz (+195), Medvedev (-245)
Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs. Daniil Medvedev Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Monday, May 11th, 2026
- Time: 10:10 AM ET
- Where to Watch: Tennis Channel
Click here for complete Llamas Ruiz vs. Medvedev Odds
Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs. Daniil Medvedev Prediction
Medvedev’s 2026 season has had major highs, including titles in Brisbane and Dubai, plus a run to the Indian Wells final. The clay swing has been less convincing, with a brutal early Monte Carlo exit showing how quickly his rhythm can leave him on slower surfaces. He remains dangerous because of his return game, court coverage, and ability to extend rallies, but this is not the same kind of straightforward favorite spot he would be on a hard court.
Llamas Ruiz enters with momentum after beating Ethan Quinn and Corentin Moutet in Rome, with the Moutet match going the distance and ending in a third-set tiebreak. That matters for the total because he has already handled pressure points on these courts, and his clay rhythm should help him avoid getting completely overwhelmed. Even if Medvedev’s level rises, Llamas Ruiz has enough match reps in Rome to push at least one set deep.
There is no established head-to-head trend to lean on, which makes the total more attractive than trying to force a side at a shorter number. Medvedev’s overall class should eventually show, but Llamas Ruiz has the clay match play and confidence to create scoreboard pressure. A 7-5, 6-4 or 6-4, 7-6 type Medvedev win is firmly in play, and a three-set match would put the over in excellent position.
Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs. Daniil Medvedev Best Bet
- Best Bet: Under 21.5 Games (-105) Check out the best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
Medvedev is still the rightful favorite, but his clay volatility and Llamas Ruiz’s current Rome momentum point toward a more competitive match than the moneyline suggests. The underdog does not need to win to cash the angle. He only needs to hold enough early service games and force one extended set.
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