Rafael Jodar vs. Lorenzo Musetti Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest ATP Montreal Odds - Thursday, August 6th
Rafael Jodar faces Lorenzo Musetti at 7 PM ET on Thursday, August 6, on Centre Court at IGA Stadium in Montreal. Can Jodar defeat the Italian for the second time in less than a week, or will Musetti answer after their volatile Washington matchup? Check out this Rafael Jodar vs. Lorenzo Musetti prediction and best bet for August 6.
Peter Alexis - August 6, 2026, 3:00 PM EDT
4 Minute ReadRafael Jodar vs. Lorenzo Musetti Prediction: Can Blockx Pull Upset at ATP Montreal, Continue Hot Streak?
Rafael Jodar meets Lorenzo Musetti in the third round of the ATP Montreal National Bank Open on Thursday, August 6, with the match scheduled for 7 PM ET on Tennis Channel. Jodar is a -138 moneyline favorite, while Musetti enters as a +113 underdog. Over 2.5 sets and Jodar to win the first set and match are both available at +110, while Jodar to win 2-1 is priced at +260.
This is an immediate rematch of their Washington quarterfinal, where Jodar recovered from a dominant opening set by Musetti to win 1-6, 6-1, 6-4. The match did not follow a stable pattern for either player, with both producing one-sided stretches before Jodar held his nerve in the deciding third set. Another matchup between two talented and surging players should create similar momentum swings.
Rafael Jodar vs. Lorenzo Musetti Odds
- Moneyline: Jodar (-135), Musetti (+115)
Rafael Jodar vs. Lorenzo Musetti Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Thursday, August 6th, 2026
- Time: 6:00 PM ET
- Where to Watch: Tennis Channel
Click here for complete Rafael Jodar vs. Lorenzo Musetti Odds
Rafael Jodar vs. Lorenzo Musetti Prediction
Jodar has been tested repeatedly during a demanding North American hard-court stretch. After eliminating Musetti, he recovered from another opening-set loss to beat Alejandro Tabilo 6-7(6), 6-4, 6-4 in the Washington semifinals before falling 7-6(2), 6-4 to Taylor Fritz in the rain-delayed final. He then traveled directly to Montreal and rallied past Corentin Moutet 4-6, 6-1, 6-3, overcoming fatigue and another slow start to secure his fifth victory across six matches.
Musetti opened his Montreal campaign with a 7-6(8), 6-2 victory over qualifier Nicolas Mejia. The Italian had to save multiple opportunities during a competitive first-set tiebreak before controlling the second set, an encouraging performance after his Washington defeat. His tournament in the United States also included a 6-3, 5-7, 6-3 victory over Aleksandar Vukic, giving Musetti two three-set matches across his past three appearances.
The matchup remains difficult to price because each player can expose the other’s weaknesses. Musetti’s variety, defensive range and one-handed backhand allow him to change the height and pace of rallies, while Jodar can take control by stepping inside the baseline and attacking with greater weight from both wings. Musetti showed he can overwhelm the Spaniard when his first strike is precise, but Jodar’s ability to absorb that surge and eventually dictate longer exchanges proved decisive in Washington.
Jodar has now lost the opening set in four consecutive matches against Musetti, Tabilo, Fritz and Moutet. That pattern makes the first-set-and-match combination less dependable despite the appealing +110 return. A faster start could still produce that result, but backing Jodar 2-1 at +260 also requires correctly predicting both the winner and exact set distribution.
Rafael Jodar vs. Lorenzo Musetti Best Bet
- Best Bet: Over 2.5 Sets (+110) Check out the best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
- Lean: Jodar Wins First Set/Match (+115) Check out the best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
The over provides exposure to the competitive nature of the matchup without requiring either player to finish the job. Musetti has already shown that he can dominate Jodar for a full set, while the Spaniard’s recent recovery record makes him difficult to eliminate after falling behind. With both players carrying strong form and contrasting weapons, each should have a sustained stretch of control.
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