Ben Shelton vs. Brandon Nakashima Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest ATP Montreal Final Odds - Thursday, August 13th
Ben Shelton faces Brandon Nakashima at 8 PM ET on Thursday, August 13, at IGA Stadium in Montreal in the National Bank Open final. Can Shelton successfully defend his Canadian Masters title, or will Nakashima complete his breakthrough week with the biggest victory of his career? Check out this Ben Shelton vs. Brandon Nakashima prediction and best bet for August 13.
Peter Alexis - August 13, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
4 Minute ReadBen Shelton vs. Brandon Nakashima Prediction: Can Nakashima Overcome Shelton's Ownership in ATP Montreal Final?
Shelton enters the all-American final as a substantial -249 favorite, with Nakashima available at +197. Shelton is attempting to win consecutive Canadian Masters titles after capturing Toronto last season, while Nakashima is appearing in his first Masters 1000 final.
Shelton has been dominant throughout Montreal. The defending champion has won all five matches in straight sets, including a 6-3, 6-1 demolition of Jakub Mensik in the quarterfinals before finally solving Learner Tien 6-2, 6-3 in the semifinals. He is now 11-0 in Canada since the start of last year’s title run.
Ben Shelton vs. Brandon Nakashima Odds
- Moneyline: Shelton (-240), Nakashima (+180)
Ben Shelton vs. Brandon Nakashima Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Thursday, August 13th, 2026
- Time: 8:00 PM ET
- Where to Watch: Tennis Channel
Click here for complete Ben Shelton vs. Brandon Nakashima Odds
Ben Shelton vs. Brandon Nakashima Prediction
Nakashima should not be dismissed simply because of the underdog price. He entered Wednesday’s semifinal as a significant underdog against red-hot Rafael Jodar and immediately ended the Spaniard’s run 7-6(3), 6-4. That followed a 6-2, 6-3 victory over Luciano Darderi, while Nakashima won 81% of his first-serve points and hit 28 winners against Jodar.
The head-to-head heavily favors Shelton at 5-0, with all five meetings coming since April 2024. Shelton beat Nakashima in straight sets in Houston, Washington, the Australian Open and Indian Wells before surviving 6-7(8), 6-2, 7-6(5) in Toronto last summer. Four of the five meetings have been on hard courts, with the Houston matchup the lone clay encounter.
The 5-0 record looks much more dominant than the individual sets actually were. Seven of their 12 sets have reached a tiebreak, including both sets in Washington, two of three in Toronto and the opening set of their Australian Open and Indian Wells meetings. Even before the Indian Wells matchup, Nakashima had won at least five games in every set the two had played.
That history fits the way both Americans are serving right now. Shelton has gone unbroken in three of his five Montreal matches, while Nakashima’s serve repeatedly bailed him out against Jodar, including four saved break points while serving for the match. The market recognizes the likelihood of another extremely tight set, which is why a tiebreak is priced all the way up at -240.
Ben Shelton vs. Brandon Nakashima Best Bet
- Best Bet: Over 2.5 Sets (+110) Check out the best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Shelton deserves to be favored and is playing well enough to improve to 6-0 in the rivalry, but -249 offers little value against an opponent who just dismantled Jodar and has finally taken a set from Shelton in their most recent meeting. Nakashima’s serve gives him a legitimate route to one set, while Shelton’s current level makes a complete upset less necessary to attack. Rather than paying -240 for a tiebreak, the better plus-money angle is backing these two to split the first two sets and push the final into a decider.
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