Tommy Paul vs. Flavio Cobolli Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest ATP Cincinnati Odds - Thursday, August 20th
Flavio Cobolli faces Tommy Paul at approximately 3 PM ET on Thursday, August 20, at the Lindner Family Tennis Center in Cincinnati. Can Paul build on his dramatic upset of the tournament's top seed, or will Cobolli repeat his previous success against the American on these courts? Check out this Tommy Paul vs. Flavio Cobolli prediction and best bet for August 20.
Peter Alexis - August 20, 2026, 12:00 PM EDT
4 Minute ReadTommy Paul vs. Flavio Cobolli Prediction: Can Cobolli Pull Upset in ATP Cincinnati Quarterfinal?
Paul enters the Cincinnati Open quarterfinal as a -159 favorite, with Cobolli offering +130 on the moneyline. Tennis Channel will carry tournament coverage from the outdoor hard courts in Cincinnati, where both players arrive after surviving difficult three-set matches to reach the final eight.
Paul produced one of the tournament's biggest wins Wednesday, saving a match point to eliminate top seed Alexander Zverev 4-6, 7-6(6), 6-4. He trailed after a lengthy rain delay and again fell behind 4-2 in the deciding set before winning four consecutive games, reaching his first Cincinnati quarterfinal and 50th tour-level quarterfinal overall.
Tommy Paul vs. Flavio Cobolli Odds
- Moneyline: Paul (-159), Cobolli (+130)
Tommy Paul vs. Flavio Cobolli Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Thursday, August 20th, 2026
- Time: 3:00 PM ET
- Where to Watch: Tennis Channel
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Tommy Paul vs. Flavio Cobolli Prediction
Cobolli has taken an even more demanding route. He opened with a 6-1, 4-6, 6-3 victory over Miomir Kecmanovic, survived Alexander Blockx 7-5, 4-6, 7-5 and then rallied past Rafael Jodar 4-6, 7-6(3), 6-3 in the round of 16. Every match has gone three sets, but the Italian has repeatedly played his best tennis when the pressure has increased.
The head-to-head provides an especially interesting reason to consider the underdog. Cobolli's only previous meeting with Paul came at this tournament in 2024, when he saved three match points and won 6-2, 4-6, 7-5. He produced 25 winners to Paul's 15 and recovered from a break down in the third set to secure what was then the biggest win of his career by ranking.
Paul is playing better tennis now than he did in that 2024 meeting, and eliminating Zverev demonstrates the ceiling he can reach on an American hard court. There is also a fatigue consideration on both sides, however. Paul's match lasted two hours and 51 minutes and included several weather interruptions, while Cobolli has spent all three of his Cincinnati matches battling through deciding sets.
The matchup should again come down to who handles the pressure points better. Paul has the cleaner all-around hard-court résumé and deserves favoritism, but Cobolli's heavy forehand and willingness to attack second serves bothered him badly in their previous Cincinnati meeting. The Italian has also already shown three times this week that falling behind does not take him out of a match.
Tommy Paul vs. Flavio Cobolli Best Bet
- Best Bet: Flavio Cobolli Moneyline (+130) Check out the best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
At +130, Cobolli does not need to be projected as the more likely winner overall. The price is attractive on a player who is 1-0 against Paul, has already beaten him on these exact courts and enters with three consecutive pressure-filled victories. Paul's emotional win over Zverev was excellent, but this is a much tighter quarterfinal than the favorite's price suggests.
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