Hugo Gaston vs. Colton Smith Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest US Open Qualifiers Odds - Thursday, August 27th
Hugo Gaston and Colton Smith meet Thursday in the final round of US Open qualifying with only one victory separating them from the main draw. Gaston enters as the higher-ranked and more experienced player, while Smith tries to complete a home-soil run after surviving consecutive three-set matches.
Peter Alexis - August 27, 2026, 12:40 PM EDT
4 Minute ReadHugo Gaston vs. Colton Smith Prediction: Can Hugo Gaston Finish Strong in Qualifiers, Earn Main Draw Spot?
Gaston and Smith are scheduled for a 1:40 PM ET start on Court 12. Gaston is the -145 favorite, while Smith sits at +119 after battling his way through the first two rounds.
Gaston has taken a much cleaner route. The No. 3 qualifying seed beat Guido Ivan Justo 7-5, 6-3 in the opening round before dismantling Andre Ilagan 6-1, 6-3 on Wednesday. He lost just four games in the second round and enters Thursday without having dropped a set.
Smith has shown plenty of toughness, but his path has been far more demanding. He needed three sets to beat Andrea Pellegrino 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 before surviving another three-set battle against Jerome Kym 7-6, 2-6, 6-4. That means Smith has already played six competitive sets compared with only four for Gaston.
Hugo Gaston vs. Colton Smith Odds
- Moneyline: Gaston (-145), Smith (+120)
Hugo Gaston vs. Colton Smith Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Thursday, August 27th, 2026
- Time: 1:40 PM ET
- Where to Watch: Tennis Channel
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Hugo Gaston vs. Colton Smith Prediction
The experience difference is significant as well. Gaston is a former World No. 58 who has played deep into Grand Slam draws and spent years facing ATP-level opposition. Smith has made progress as a professional, but Thursday represents a much different level of pressure with a first US Open main-draw berth sitting directly on the other side of the match.
Smith's serve and aggressive game give him a chance to keep sets close, particularly with an American crowd behind him. Gaston, however, is exactly the type of opponent capable of making that style uncomfortable. The French left-hander uses changes of pace, angles and drop shots to prevent bigger hitters from settling into predictable baseline patterns.
The physical situation also favors Gaston. Smith has gone deep into deciding sets on consecutive days, while Gaston's 6-1, 6-3 second-round victory required far less energy. In the final match of a compressed qualifying week, that difference becomes increasingly difficult to ignore.
Hugo Gaston vs. Colton Smith Best Bet
- Best Bet: Gaston ML (-145) Check out the best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
At -145, Gaston is still priced reasonably despite owning the ranking, experience and workload advantages. Smith has been gritty enough to make this competitive, but Gaston has looked progressively better with every set and should have enough variety to end the American's run.
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