Brandon Nakashima vs. Sebastian Baez Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest US Open Odds for Monday, August 31st
Brandon Nakashima opens his US Open against Sebastian Baez on Monday in a matchup that heavily favors the American's preferred surface and current form. Nakashima already swept Baez at a major two years ago and now returns home after one of the best hard-court stretches of his career.
Peter Alexis - August 31, 2026, 2:00 PM EDT
4 Minute ReadBrandon Nakashima vs. Sebastian Baez Prediction: Can Nakashima Continue Hot Play in US Open First Round?
Nakashima and Baez are scheduled for a 3:00 PM ET start, with Nakashima a massive -780 moneyline favorite and Baez at +490. Instead of paying that price outright, backing the American to finish the match in three sets offers +100 odds.
The only previous tour-level meeting came at Wimbledon in 2024, and Nakashima dominated 6-2, 6-3, 6-4. It was a different surface, but the underlying matchup remains attractive because Nakashima's serve and flatter hard-court ball consistently put Baez outside his preferred patterns.
Brandon Nakashima vs. Sebastian Baez Odds
- Moneyline: Nakashima (-750), Baez (+550)
Brandon Nakashima vs. Sebastian Baez Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Monday, August 31st, 2026
- Time: 3:00 PM ET
- Where to Watch: ESPN, ESPN Unlimited
Click here for complete Brandon Nakashima vs. Sebastian Baez Odds
Brandon Nakashima vs. Sebastian Baez Prediction
Nakashima enters New York playing arguably the best tennis of his career. His Cincinnati run included victories over Aleksandar Kovacevic, Daniil Medvedev, Nuno Borges and Taylor Fritz before Frances Tiafoe finally stopped him in the semifinals. He has won eight of his last 10 matches and has climbed to around No. 17 in the world.
The serve has become particularly difficult to deal with. Nakashima can generate cheap holds, protect his second serve and then use his return game to create separation against opponents without equivalent firepower. That is a major problem for Baez in a best-of-five hard-court match.
Baez is still a dangerous competitor and actually owns a Winston-Salem hard-court title from 2023, but almost all of his career success has come on clay. Thirteen of his 14 titles have been on clay, and his main-tour hard-court record remains far below Nakashima's.
There is also little reason to expect Nakashima to let the match become unnecessarily long. He comes in rested after Cincinnati, is playing at home and has already demonstrated that he can take Baez apart in a Grand Slam environment without surrendering a set.
Brandon Nakashima vs. Sebastian Baez Best Bet
- Best Bet: Nakashima Wins 3-0 Sets (+100) Check out the best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
At -780, the moneyline offers nothing. Even -2.5 sets would normally require caution against an experienced opponent, but Nakashima's current level, serve and previous straight-sets major victory over Baez make the +100 sweep worth backing.
More Tennis Odds
Affiliate Disclosure.
We are not a gambling or betting operator, but we receive a commission from these companies when we advertise their brands and refer customers to them (affiliate marketing). We provide information, odds information and links to websites of these companies. Some of the information made available on our site may be positioned as a result of a commission paid to us by a third party. We do not take or place bets/transactions and any information on Our Products is provided for entertainment purposes only.
