Matteo Berrettini vs. Stan Wawrinka Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest US Open Odds for Monday, August 31st
Matteo Berrettini and Stan Wawrinka run back one of the most entertaining matches of Wimbledon when they meet in the opening round of the US Open on Monday. Berrettini is the overwhelming favorite, but Wawrinka's farewell Grand Slam creates every reason to expect another emotional battle rather than a routine straight-sets result.
Peter Alexis - August 31, 2026, 2:10 PM EDT
4 Minute ReadMatteo Berrettini vs. Stan Wawrinka Prediction: Can Nakashima Continue Hot Play in US Open First Round?
Berrettini and Wawrinka are scheduled for a 3:00 PM ET start in New York, with Berrettini favored at -422 and Wawrinka available at +304. The more interesting market combines Berrettini to win with both players taking a set and at least one set reaching a tiebreak at +120.
The entire case begins with what happened at Wimbledon just two months ago. Wawrinka won the opening set before Berrettini eventually prevailed 6-7, 7-6, 7-6, 7-6 in a four-hour, 19-minute battle. Every single set reached a tiebreak, and three of the four were decided by only two points once they got there.
Matteo Berrettini vs. Stan Wawrinka Odds
- Moneyline: Nakashima (-750), Baez (+550)
Matteo Berrettini vs. Stan Wawrinka Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Monday, August 31st, 2026
- Time: 3:00 PM ET
- Where to Watch: ESPN, ESPN Unlimited
Click here for complete Brandon Nakashima vs. Sebastian Baez Odds
Matteo Berrettini vs. Stan Wawrinka Prediction
That match perfectly demonstrated why another tiebreak is so appealing. Neither veteran wants to play extended physical rallies unless necessary, both can generate large amounts of free points behind the first serve and both have enough experience to remain composed deep into sets.
Wawrinka also has considerably more motivation than a normal +304 underdog. The 41-year-old initially appeared set to miss his final US Open after being denied a wild card, but Patrick Kypson's withdrawal opened a spot and allowed the 2016 champion to return to Flushing Meadows for one last Grand Slam appearance before retiring at the end of the season.
That farewell atmosphere makes a completely flat performance difficult to expect. Wawrinka may no longer possess the physical level to beat Berrettini across five sets, but his one-handed backhand and first-strike power remain capable of carrying him through one strong set, particularly with the New York crowd likely to embrace his final appearance.
Berrettini remains the more likely winner. He beat Wawrinka at Wimbledon, is 10 years younger and enters with the bigger sustained serving advantage. His North American preparation has been inconsistent, but he still beat Titouan Droguet in Cincinnati and pushed Jiri Lehecka to three sets before losing. Wawrinka, meanwhile, has lost five of his last six completed matches.
The straight moneyline is far too expensive, while demanding a Berrettini sweep ignores what happened at Wimbledon and the emotion surrounding Wawrinka's farewell. The better script is another competitive opening portion before the younger Italian eventually takes control physically.
Matteo Berrettini vs. Stan Wawrinka Best Bet
- Best Bet: Matteo Berrettini to Win + Both Players to Win a Set + At Least One Tiebreak (+120) Check out the best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
They produced four tiebreaks the last time they shared a court. Monday only requires one, plus one set for Wawrinka and the expected Berrettini victory, to cash a much more attractive +120 ticket.
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