Roman Safiullin vs. Carlos Alcaraz Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest US Open Odds for Monday, August 31st
Defending US Open champion Carlos Alcaraz finally returns to singles competition Monday against Roman Safiullin after spending more than four months sidelined by a wrist injury. Alcaraz remains an overwhelming favorite, but the long absence makes his opening match much more difficult to handicap than the -528 moneyline suggests.
Peter Alexis - August 31, 2026, 11:00 AM EDT
4 Minute ReadRoman Safiullin vs. Carlos Alcaraz Prediction: Will Alcaraz Start Hot in His Return from Injury at US Open on Monday?
Safiullin and Alcaraz are scheduled for a 12:40 PM ET start at Arthur Ashe Stadium. Alcaraz is a massive -528 favorite with Safiullin at +365, but there is considerably more uncertainty than usual surrounding the defending champion after his lengthy layoff.
Alcaraz has not played a singles match since April. The right wrist injury forced him to miss the French Open, Wimbledon and essentially the entire North American hard-court swing, turning the US Open into both his Grand Slam title defense and his first singles tournament in nearly five months.
Roman Safiullin vs. Carlos Alcaraz Odds
- Moneyline: Safiullin (+365), Alcaraz (-500)
Roman Safiullin vs. Carlos Alcaraz Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Monday, August 31st, 2026
- Time: 12:40 PM ET
- Where to Watch: ESPN, ESPN Unlimited
Click here for complete Roman Safiullin vs. Carlos Alcaraz Odds
Roman Safiullin vs. Carlos Alcaraz Prediction
He has at least tested the wrist in competition. Alcaraz played US Open mixed doubles alongside Serena Williams and reached the quarterfinals, but doubles cannot fully replicate the movement, serving volume or extended baseline exchanges required over a best-of-five singles match.
That makes asking Alcaraz to sweep three sets unnecessarily aggressive. He can still be the vastly superior player over four or five sets while needing some time to find his timing. The opening set in particular could be unpredictable after months without singles competition, and even one stretch of loose service games gives Safiullin a path to grabbing a set.
Safiullin is also dangerous enough to take advantage. He possesses legitimate power from both wings and has already produced quality Grand Slam tennis this season, reaching the fourth round at Wimbledon with victories over Andrey Rublev and Joao Fonseca before losing to Novak Djokovic in four sets.
The matchup history reinforces that he should not be treated as a routine first-round opponent. Safiullin has previously beaten Alcaraz on a hard court, stunning him at the 2023 Paris Masters. Alcaraz won their subsequent meeting at the 2024 Olympics, but Safiullin has already experienced what it takes to disrupt the Spaniard.
None of that means the upset is likely. Alcaraz is the defending champion, one of the best players in the world and should have an enormous physical and shot-making advantage once he settles into the match. The better game script is Alcaraz winning while Safiullin capitalizes on the inevitable rust somewhere along the way.
Roman Safiullin vs. Carlos Alcaraz Best Bet
- Best Bet: Both Players To Win A Set + Carlos Alcaraz Moneyline -110 Check out the best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
That makes the combination market ideal. There is no need to trust Safiullin to threaten the outright upset, and there is no reason to demand three flawless sets from a player returning from nearly five months away. Safiullin steals one, Alcaraz takes care of the rest.
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