Jaime Faria vs. Carlos Alcaraz Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest US Open Odds for Wednesday, September 2nd
Carlos Alcaraz looked far sharper than expected in his first singles match in 139 days, sweeping Roman Safiullin to begin his US Open title defense. Jaime Faria is dangerous and already owns a major hard-court upset this summer, but Alcaraz now has the comeback match behind him and should be even more comfortable in Round 2.
Peter Alexis - September 2, 2026, 6:00 PM EDT
4 Minute ReadJaime Faria vs. Carlos Alcaraz Prediction: Will Alcaraz Cruise After First Match Warmup?
Faria and Alcaraz are scheduled for approximately 8:10 PM ET, with Alcaraz an enormous -1060 favorite and Faria available at +800. The much better price comes on Alcaraz to win 3-0 sets at -125.
The biggest question entering the tournament was not whether Alcaraz was the better player. It was whether he would look rusty after missing nearly five months with a wrist injury. The answer in Round 1 was encouraging immediately.
Alcaraz beat Roman Safiullin 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 without dropping a set in his first singles match since April. He showed some understandable imperfections with 27 unforced errors and five double faults, but he moved freely, produced more than 20 forehand winners and said afterward that he was finally playing without pain.
Jaime Faria vs. Carlos Alcaraz Odds
- Moneyline: Sakamoto (+350), Alcaraz (-500)
Jaime Faria vs. Carlos Alcaraz Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Wednesday, September 2nd, 2026
- Time: 8:00 PM ET
- Where to Watch: ESPN
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Jaime Faria vs. Carlos Alcaraz Prediction
That makes Wednesday significantly different from the opener. Alcaraz no longer has to rediscover the rhythm of walking onto court for a singles match, dealing with changeovers or managing a three-set workload. He already completed that test and did it without allowing Safiullin to push any set beyond 6-4.
Faria is a legitimate threat and should not be reduced to the +800 next to his name. The Portuguese player beat Jenson Brooksby 6-3, 7-6, 4-6, 1-6, 6-2 in Round 1, recovering after losing consecutive sets and surviving a hostile American crowd. He also upset Ben Shelton in Cincinnati two weeks ago for the first Top-10 victory of his career.
That Brooksby victory also required three hours and 43 minutes and five complete sets. Faria hit 14 aces but also committed 14 double faults and was broken seven times, vulnerabilities that become far more dangerous when Alcaraz is standing on the other side of the net.
There is no head-to-head history between them. Faria's power could keep one set close, especially if Alcaraz continues serving at slightly reduced speed following the wrist injury. The Spaniard averaged only around 112 mph on first serves in Round 1, below his typical level.
Everything else points toward Alcaraz. He has the superior return game, movement and ability to immediately punish Faria's second serve. Faria cannot afford the type of mid-match drop that saw Brooksby win consecutive sets 6-4, 6-1, because Alcaraz is unlikely to give the momentum back once he creates separation.
Jaime Faria vs. Carlos Alcaraz Best Bet
- Best Bet: Alcaraz Wins 3-0 Sets (-125) Check out the best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
There was a reasonable argument before Round 1 that the defending champion might need four sets simply because of rust. After watching him sweep Safiullin, that concern is significantly smaller. Alcaraz should be sharper in his second match back, while Faria enters after a draining five-set opener.
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