Alexei Popyrin vs. Alejandro Tabilo Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest US Open Odds for Thursday, September 3rd
Alexei Popyrin and Alejandro Tabilo meet Thursday after both dropped a set but otherwise looked strong in their US Open openers. Tabilo owns the ranking advantage and enters as the favorite, but Popyrin's huge serve and recent upset of Grigor Dimitrov create the ingredients for a long four-set or five-set battle.
Peter Alexis - September 3, 2026, 12:00 PM EDT
4 Minute ReadAlexei Popyrin vs. Alejandro Tabilo Prediction: Will These Two Battle to Five Sets on Thursday Afternoon?
Popyrin and Tabilo are scheduled for approximately 1:20 PM ET on Court 7, with Tabilo favored at -172 and Popyrin available at +135. The preferred market is Over 41.5 total games at -110, a number that should come into play if both men continue producing the level they showed in Round 1.
Popyrin delivered one of the stronger first-round upsets. He lost the opening set to Grigor Dimitrov 6-3 before responding 6-3, 6-2, 6-4, turning what initially looked like another Dimitrov-controlled match into a convincing four-set victory.
Alexei Popyrin vs. Alejandro Tabilo Odds
- Moneyline: Popyrin (+135), Tabilo (-170)
Alexei Popyrin vs. Alejandro Tabilo Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Thursday, September 3rd, 2026
- Time: 1:20 PM ET
- Where to Watch: ESPN Unlimited
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Alexei Popyrin vs. Alejandro Tabilo Prediction
That comeback is especially encouraging because Popyrin's ranking has fallen to around No. 130 after a difficult stretch, but his ceiling remains far higher than that number suggests. He has previously been inside the Top 20, owns one of the bigger serves on tour and has already shown at Flushing Meadows that he can beat established seeded players when his first-strike tennis clicks.
Tabilo had a similar opening-round experience against Yannick Hanfmann. The Chilean won 6-3, 6-2, dropped the third-set tiebreak and then finished the match 6-3 in the fourth. Like Popyrin, he demonstrated enough control to advance comfortably without producing a straight-set sweep.
The only previous head-to-head actually went the other way. Popyrin beat Tabilo 7-5, 6-3, 6-4 at Roland Garros last year. That was a straight-sets result, but the first set reached 12 games and Popyrin proved he can consistently pressure Tabilo even on a slower surface.
Thursday's hard court should give both players more opportunities to shorten points behind the serve. Tabilo's left-handed delivery can create awkward patterns, while Popyrin is capable of producing stretches where breaking him becomes almost impossible. That naturally increases the chances of 6-4, 7-5 and tiebreak sets.
The 41.5 number does require some competitiveness. A quick four-set result can still stay under, so the ideal script has at least one tiebreak and both players taking a set. Something like 7-6, 6-4, 4-6, 7-5 produces 45 games without needing a fifth.
Alexei Popyrin vs. Alejandro Tabilo Best Bet
- Best Bet: Over 41.5 Total Games (-115) Check out the best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Neither man looked vulnerable enough in Round 1 to expect the match to disappear quickly. Tabilo is the steadier player and deserves to be favored, but Popyrin has enough serve and enough confidence from beating Dimitrov to push this deep.
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