Paula Badosa vs. Coco Gauff Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest US Open Odds for Thursday, September 3rd
Coco Gauff faces a genuinely dangerous second-round opponent Thursday night in Paula Badosa, a former World No. 2 who has repeatedly given her problems. Gauff is the overwhelming favorite based on current ranking and recent form, but the matchup history makes a straight-sets assumption far too aggressive.
Peter Alexis - September 3, 2026, 5:00 PM EDT
4 Minute ReadPaula Badosa vs. Coco Gauff Prediction: Can Badosa Steal a Set from Coco on Thursday Night?
Badosa and Gauff are scheduled for approximately 7:00 PM ET on Arthur Ashe Stadium. Gauff is a massive -770 favorite and Badosa sits at +487, but the stronger betting angle is Over 2.5 sets at +200.
Gauff opened the tournament with a professional 6-3, 6-4 victory over Zeynep Sonmez. The former US Open champion served much better than she had earlier in the year, landed 62% of first serves and closed the match in only 80 minutes. She enters on a seven-match winning streak after capturing Cincinnati.
Paula Badosa vs. Coco Gauff Odds
- Moneyline: Badosa (+485), Gauf (-770)
Paula Badosa vs. Coco Gauff Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Thursday, September 3rd, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET
- Where to Watch: ESPN
Click here for complete Paula Badosa vs. Coco Gauff Odds
Paula Badosa vs. Coco Gauff Prediction
The market still may be underrating how awkward Badosa has historically been for her. Badosa leads the career head-to-head 5-3 and has won the last two meetings, including a 1-6, 6-3, 6-2 comeback in Berlin this June and a 7-5, 6-4 victory at the 2025 Australian Open.
That Berlin match is particularly important for this wager. Gauff completely dominated the opening set and still could not finish in two. Badosa adjusted, began controlling more baseline exchanges and won the final two sets comfortably. She clearly does not enter this matchup believing she needs a miracle to compete.
Badosa has dealt with significant injuries over the past several seasons, including a serious back problem and hip issues that dropped her outside the Top 100. She says she is finally healthy again, and recent results support that claim. She won a WTA 125 title in Bastad, reached another final in Iasi and then beat Daria Kasatkina in straight sets to reach Round 2 in New York.
The weather delays surrounding the tournament are worth mentioning here as well. Badosa's first-round match was suspended after she took a commanding 6-1 lead and later resumed, adding another disruption to a player whose physical condition has been closely watched. Even with that interruption, she finished the match strongly enough to set up this blockbuster.
Gauff remains the much safer player to trust over the full match. She is younger, healthier, moving exceptionally well and playing with the confidence of a recent Cincinnati champion. Badosa's path to an outright upset requires maintaining her highest level for three complete sets, something her recent physical history makes harder to project.
Paula Badosa vs. Coco Gauff Best Bet
- Best Bet: Over 2.5 Sets (+200) Check out the best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
One set is different. Badosa has beaten Gauff five times, has won their last two meetings and knows exactly how to disrupt her. At +200, the wager only asks her to reproduce that success for one portion of the match while still allowing Gauff to ultimately survive.
A 2-1 Gauff victory fits both the current form and the matchup history much better than a routine sweep.
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