Alex Michelsen vs. Daniel Merida Aguilar Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest US Open Odds for Friday, September 4th
Alex Michelsen gets an immediate revenge opportunity against Daniel Merida Aguilar in the third round of the US Open, less than a month after Merida upset him in Montreal. Michelsen has been nearly flawless in New York and just swept Brandon Nakashima, making the American an appealing set-spread play despite the dangerous rematch.
Peter Alexis - September 4, 2026, 2:30 PM EDT
4 Minute ReadAlex Michelsen vs. Daniel Merida Aguilar Prediction: Can Michelsen Get Revenge for Montreal in US Open Third Round Today?
Michelsen and Merida are scheduled for approximately 4:30 PM ET. Michelsen is only a slight moneyline favorite despite his dominant first two rounds, and the preferred wager is Michelsen -1.5 sets at +100.
Michelsen has yet to drop a set at this tournament. His second-round performance was his best yet, taking out No. 16 seed Brandon Nakashima 6-3, 6-3, 6-4. Nakashima earned an early break, but Michelsen immediately settled into the match and controlled virtually everything afterward.
Alex Michelsen vs. Daniel Merida Aguilar Odds
- Moneyline: Michelsen (-215), Aguilar (+185)
Alex Michelsen vs. Daniel Merida Aguilar Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Friday, September 4th, 2026
- Time: 4:30 PM ET
- Where to Watch: ESPN Unlimited
Click here for complete Alex Michelsen vs. Daniel Merida Aguilar Odds
Alex Michelsen vs. Daniel Merida Aguilar Prediction
That result was especially impressive because Nakashima arrived playing some of the best hard-court tennis of his career. Michelsen did not simply survive a seed. He outplayed him methodically from the baseline and never allowed the match to approach a fourth set.
Merida is also red hot. He knocked out No. 23 seed Andrey Rublev 6-7, 6-2, 6-4, 6-4 in Round 2, winning 70% of his second-serve points and allowing Rublev only one break across 20 service games. The 21-year-old Spaniard has climbed to a career-high ranking around No. 39 and has earned every bit of respect the market is giving him.
The most important piece is their Montreal meeting. Merida beat Michelsen 6-4, 6-7, 6-1 in August, dominating the deciding set and winning 66% of points against Michelsen's second serve. The broader professional series is tied 1-1.
That defeat gives Michelsen both tactical information and motivation. He knows Merida can punish his second serve and cannot afford the same dramatic third-set fade. The New York version of Michelsen has been serving and returning far more consistently than the player Merida saw in Montreal.
Alex Michelsen vs. Daniel Merida Aguilar Best Bet
- Best Bet: Michelsen -1.5 Sets (+100) Check out the best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Merida is feisty enough to steal one set, which is exactly why -1.5 sets is preferable to demanding a 3-0 sweep. Michelsen can win 3-1 and still cash, and his form through six straight winning sets suggests the American has the higher level right now.
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