Alexander Bublik vs. Tommy Paul Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest US Open Odds for Friday, September 4th
Alexander Bublik and Tommy Paul meet in a fascinating rematch of last year's US Open third-round marathon, when Bublik survived the American in five sets after midnight. Paul is favored this time around, but Bublik enters playing cleaner tennis and has already shown twice that this matchup can work in his favor.
Peter Alexis - September 4, 2026, 12:15 PM EDT
4 Minute ReadAlexander Bublik vs. Tommy Paul Prediction: Can Bublik Pull Slight Upset, Extend US Open Hot Streak?
Bublik and Paul are scheduled for approximately 12:30 PM ET on Louis Armstrong Stadium. Paul is the favorite, but Bublik is available at +140 in a matchup that looks far closer than the market suggests.
Bublik has been outstanding through two rounds. He beat J.J. Wolf 6-4, 6-2, 3-6, 6-1 in his opener and then completely overwhelmed Adrian Mannarino 6-3, 6-1, 6-1. Against Mannarino, Bublik hit 16 aces, won 91% of his first-serve points and was broken only once.
Alexander Bublik vs. Tommy Paul Odds
- Moneyline: Bublik (+140), Paul (-175)
Alexander Bublik vs. Tommy Paul Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Friday, September 4th, 2026
- Time: 12:30 PM ET
- Where to Watch: ESPN
Click here for complete Alexander Bublik vs. Tommy Paul Odds
Alexander Bublik vs. Tommy Paul Prediction
The bigger change is how controlled he looks. Bublik can always produce spectacular tennis, but his best stretches often come with unnecessary volatility. This week he has mostly simplified the game around the serve and forehand, exactly the formula that made him so dangerous in New York last season.
Paul has also played well. He beat Dino Prizmic 6-2, 6-3, 5-7, 6-4 in Round 2, winning 82% of his first-serve points and breaking seven times. The American is more consistent from the baseline and will have the crowd behind him, which explains why he is favored.
The head-to-head is where the upset becomes particularly appealing. Bublik beat Paul in an epic 7-6, 6-7, 6-3, 6-7, 6-1 match at this exact stage of the US Open last year. He also beat Paul in Miami earlier in 2025, showing the New York result was not simply a one-off.
Last year's match was decided by Bublik's serve. He hit 22 aces, won 83% of first-serve points and repeatedly forced Paul to play pressure games while getting very few comfortable looks on return. If the same serving level appears Friday, Paul will again have to win extremely thin sets.
Alexander Bublik vs. Tommy Paul Best Bet
- Best Bet: Bublik Moneyline (+140) Check out the best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Paul is capable of reversing the result, especially if Bublik's first-serve percentage falls. But +140 is a generous price on the player who won their last two meetings and has dropped only one set through the opening two rounds.
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