Daniil Medvedev vs. Arthur Rinderknech Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest US Open Odds for Friday, September 4th
Daniil Medvedev continues his US Open resurgence Friday against Arthur Rinderknech, with the 2021 champion finally looking comfortable again on the New York hard courts. Rinderknech has enough serve to make individual sets competitive, but Medvedev's return game and recent straight-set form create a strong case for the Russian to advance without needing a fifth set.
Peter Alexis - September 4, 2026, 12:10 PM EDT
4 Minute ReadDaniil Medvedev vs. Arthur Rinderknech Prediction: Will Medvedev Handle Business in Third Round on Friday Afternoon?
Medvedev and Rinderknech are scheduled for approximately 12:30 PM ET on Grandstand, with Medvedev priced at -301 and Rinderknech at +227. The better way to back the favorite is Medvedev -1.5 sets at -140, which cashes with either a 3-0 or 3-1 victory.
Medvedev arrived in New York searching for answers after losing to Martin Damm in Winston-Salem, but his first two US Open matches have looked completely different. He has yet to drop a set and dismantled Sebastian Gorzny 6-1, 6-3, 7-5 in Round 2, firing 14 aces and facing only one break point. He also won 87% of his first-serve points.
Daniil Medvedev vs. Arthur Rinderknech Odds
- Moneyline: Medvedev (-300), Rinderknech (+230)
Daniil Medvedev vs. Arthur Rinderknech Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Friday, September 4th, 2026
- Time: 12:30 PM ET
- Where to Watch: ESPN
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Daniil Medvedev vs. Arthur Rinderknech Prediction
That is a major improvement from a summer in which Medvedev struggled to stack victories. The former champion has now won consecutive hard-court matches for the first time since Indian Wells in March, and the draw around him has opened dramatically with Novak Djokovic, Brandon Nakashima and Andrey Rublev already eliminated.
Rinderknech is playing well enough to demand respect. He beat Sho Shimabukuro in four sets before taking out Jaume Munar 7-6, 6-2, 7-5 in Round 2. His serve can create stretches where even an elite returner gets very few looks, which is the main reason a 3-0 Medvedev ticket feels less comfortable than simply asking the Russian to win by two sets.
There is also useful head-to-head history. Medvedev beat Rinderknech in straight sets at this tournament in 2022, but Rinderknech got revenge in Shanghai last season, winning 4-6, 6-2, 6-4. The Frenchman therefore knows he can hurt Medvedev, but sustaining that level for three winning sets in New York is a much different task.
Medvedev's deep return position should allow him to neutralize more of Rinderknech's first-strike offense as the match goes on. If the Frenchman steals a tiebreak or catches Medvedev during one loose service stretch, the -1.5-set wager still survives.
Daniil Medvedev vs. Arthur Rinderknech Best Bet
- Best Bet: Medvedev -1.5 Set Spread (-140) Check out the best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Medvedev finally looks like himself again at the tournament where he has historically played his best Grand Slam tennis. The serve is holding, the return pressure is building and the draw gives him every incentive to take advantage.
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