Yibing Wu vs. Carlos Alcaraz Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest US Open Odds for Friday, September 4th
Carlos Alcaraz faces Yibing Wu in the third round Friday after finally showing a little vulnerability against Jaime Faria. Alcaraz dropped his first set of the tournament Wednesday, but the defending champion responded by winning 18 of the next 23 games and now gets an opportunity to produce a much cleaner performance.
Peter Alexis - September 4, 2026, 12:20 PM EDT
4 Minute ReadYibing Wu vs. Carlos Alcaraz Prediction: Will Alcaraz Roll in Third Round After Warmup Matches?
Wu and Alcaraz are scheduled for approximately 1:00 PM ET on Arthur Ashe Stadium. Alcaraz is a massive -2400 favorite, making the 3-0 sets market at -160 the far more attractive way to approach the matchup.
Alcaraz's second round began poorly. Faria broke him once and took the opening set 6-4, raising immediate questions about whether the wrist injury and long layoff were still affecting his rhythm. Alcaraz answered emphatically, winning the next three sets 6-0, 6-3, 6-2 and improving his US Open career record to 26-3.
Yibing Wu vs. Carlos Alcaraz Odds
- Moneyline: Wu (+900), Alcaraz (-2000)
Yibing Wu vs. Carlos Alcaraz Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Friday, September 4th, 2026
- Time: 1:00 PM ET
- Where to Watch: ESPN
Click here for complete Yibing Wu vs. Carlos Alcaraz Odds
Yibing Wu vs. Carlos Alcaraz Prediction
That response may be more useful than another effortless sweep would have been. Alcaraz experienced adversity, corrected the problem immediately and then physically overwhelmed Faria over the final three sets. His movement looked strong and his forehand became much more aggressive as the match progressed.
Wu is having an excellent tournament himself. He beat James Duckworth 7-5, 6-3, 6-1 in Round 2 without facing a single break point. Wu hit 12 aces, committed only one double fault and won an exceptional 83% of his second-serve points.
The head-to-head shows why Wu cannot be completely dismissed. Their only previous meeting came in Shanghai in 2024, where Alcaraz won 7-6, 6-3. Wu protected serve well enough to force a first-set tiebreak before Alcaraz eventually created separation.
Still, the difference between keeping one best-of-three match competitive and winning an entire set in a Slam is significant. Alcaraz has now played two singles matches since his layoff, and the rust excuse becomes less relevant with every round.
Yibing Wu vs. Carlos Alcaraz Best Bet
- Best Bet: Alcaraz Wins 3-0 Sets (-160) Check out the best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Wu's serve can keep one set in the 6-4 or 7-5 range, but Alcaraz's return game and athleticism should eventually create too much pressure. After dropping a set Wednesday, expect the defending champion to be much sharper from the opening game.
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