Tommy Paul vs. Carlos Alcaraz Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest US Open Odds for Sunday, September 6th
Tommy Paul challenges Carlos Alcaraz in the fourth round of the US Open on Sunday, September 6. The defending champion arrives after a straight-sets victory, while Paul advanced through a dramatic five-set battle against Alexander Bublik.
Peter Alexis - September 6, 2026, 12:00 PM EDT
4 Minute ReadTommy Paul vs. Carlos Alcaraz Prediction: Can Tommy Paul Play Close with Alcaraz in US Open Round of 16?
Tommy Paul faces Carlos Alcaraz in New York on Sunday, with their fourth-round match scheduled for 2:00 PM ET. Alcaraz is a substantial -459 moneyline favorite against the +326 American as the defending champion encounters his most accomplished opponent of the tournament so far.
Alcaraz has progressed comfortably overall, but there have been openings. He began by beating Roman Safiullin 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 before dropping the opening set against Jaime Faria and recovering to win in four. His latest performance was sharper, a 6-3, 6-4, 6-1 victory over Yibing Wu, although Paul has the movement and returning ability to make him work considerably harder.
Tommy Paul vs. Carlos Alcaraz Odds
- Moneyline: Paul (+330), Alcaraz (-450)
Tommy Paul vs. Carlos Alcaraz Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Sunday, September 6th, 2026
- Time: 2:00 PM ET
- Where to Watch: ESPN
Click here for complete Tommy Paul vs. Carlos Alcaraz Odds
Tommy Paul vs. Carlos Alcaraz Prediction
Paul has been feisty throughout this run, winning all three matches despite surrendering at least one set each time. He beat Coleman Wong and Dino Prizmic in four sets before recovering from two sets to one down against Bublik, winning 6-4, 3-6, 6-7, 6-1, 6-3. Taking the final two sets so convincingly showed that he still had plenty of competitive energy after a difficult opening stretch.
Alcaraz leads the head-to-head 6-2, but Paul’s two victories both came on hard courts. Their latest encounter at the Australian Open in January finished 7-6, 6-4, 7-5 to Alcaraz, producing 35 games despite ending in straight sets. That result illustrates how Paul can extend individual sets even when the Spaniard ultimately controls the outcome.
Paul’s return game and willingness to take the ball early should prevent Alcaraz from dictating every exchange. The American can also move forward behind his approach shots, forcing the favorite to execute passes rather than simply overpower him from the baseline. Fatigue after 13 sets is the main concern, but Paul’s strong finish against Bublik supports his chances of remaining competitive long enough to push this beyond three sets.
Tommy Paul vs. Carlos Alcaraz Best Bet
- Best Bet: Over 37.5 Total Games (-110) Check out the best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Over 37.5 games at -110 fits an Alcaraz victory with meaningful resistance. A scoreline such as 7-6, 4-6, 6-4, 6-3 totals 42 games, while even 6-4, 4-6, 6-4, 6-3 reaches 39. Paul does not need to threaten the outright upset throughout the afternoon. One set and competitive service games elsewhere can be enough, making the over an attractive way to back his resilience against a superior opponent.
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