2025-26 NFL MVP Guide: Josh Allen Takes Commanding Lead in Regular Season MVP Market
Get the latest Super Bowl 60 odds and NFL futures, with the Eagles, Bills, and Ravens leading the pack. See which teams are trending up or down, the most popular bets, and a full guide to NFL futures markets, including Super Bowl MVP odds, win totals, playoff props, and more.
OC Staff - September 29, 2025, 2:30 PM EDT
7 Minute ReadNFL Regular Season MVP Odds: Can Anyone Contend with Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson in 2025 MVP Race?
We are only four weeks into the NFL season and not even out of September, yet the MVP race already looks like it’s shaping up in historic fashion. Josh Allen has surged to the front as the overwhelming favorite, listed at +110 on most books and even dipping into slight minus money at others. To see a quarterback carry odds this short just a quarter of the way into the season is nearly unheard of, but Allen’s play and Buffalo's hot start have made it undeniable.
Allen has nearly 1,000 passing yards through four games, has added three rushing touchdowns, and has led the Bills to a perfect 4-0 record. That combination of production and winning has given him a commanding edge in a race that is usually wide open this early. He also owns a head-to-head win over one of his biggest preseason challengers, Lamar Jackson, after leading a dramatic Week 1 comeback against Baltimore. With both the stats and the narrative on his side, Allen has separated himself in a way that feels unusual for September.
The rest of the field is scrambling to keep pace. Justin Herbert remains the closest competitor at +700 after leading the Chargers to a 3-1 start, though his stock dipped after a sluggish loss to the Giants. Herbert has the arm talent and system to put up monster numbers, but if Los Angeles stumbles again, his candidacy could fade quickly. Next week’s matchup with Jayden Daniels and Washington will be a key chance to reassert himself.
Jackson’s situation is even trickier. He entered Week 4 tied with Allen near the top of the odds board, but a hamstring injury suffered against Kansas City and Baltimore’s 1-3 start have sent his odds tumbling to +900. With the severity of the injury still unclear, the Ravens’ outlook — and Jackson’s candidacy — hang in the balance. If healthy, he could easily work his way back into contention, but at the moment, bettors are cautious.
Lurking just behind is Patrick Mahomes at +1000, who reminded everyone why he’s never far from MVP talks. Mahomes lit up a depleted Ravens defense in Week 4 and looked more comfortable with reinforcements arriving in the Kansas City passing game. With the Chiefs back to .500 and their offense starting to click, Mahomes has the potential to charge up the board quickly if he keeps stacking wins. He gets a high-profile chance next Monday night against Jacksonville in what could be a statement game.
Get your first month of oddschecker+ right now for just $0.99. Don't miss out on this post NFL Draft deal!
NFL MVP Odds
Risers & Fallers: NFL MVP Odds Movement
Since the preseason, the futures market has shifted significantly after the first month of the season. Here are the biggest risers and fallers on the NFL Regular Season MVP board (odds changes are week to week):
📈 Risers
- Josh Allen (+300 → +110) Allen has surged into the top spot after a blistering start and a wave of preseason hype fueled by his Hard Knocks spotlight. Bettors are piling in, making him the consensus favorite.
- Justin Herbert (+850 → +700) Herbert is firmly in the mix thanks to an explosive Chargers offense and a clean, turnover-free start to the year. His numbers have him climbing fast.
- Patrick Mahomes (+2500 → +1000) Mahomes is still elite, but struggled to start the season with wide receiver injuries. He's starting to hit his stride after a blowout win over the Ravens at home gothe Chiefs back to .500.
📉 Fallers
- Lamar Jackson (+330 → +900) Jackson tumbled down in the market, mostly because of an unknown hamstring injury. His stats are still great in the mix, it just depends how long he could be out.
- Jalen Hurts (+750 → +1600) Hurts opened strong in the market, but Philly’s run-heavy approach has capped his passing production. Bettors are shifting to flashier stat leaders.
- Jordan Love (+1200 → +1600) Love has been great for the Packers, but a loss to the Browns and a tie on Sunday Night Football against the Cowboys have knocked has chances down a bit. Remember, wins matter.
- Joe Burrow (+800 → Off the Board) An early-season injury and toe surgery pushed Burrow down off the board. Cincinnati’s slow start is scaring bettors off, and they'll pray to get Burrow back before the season ends, but he's not going to be in the MVP race.
Bettors Backed Burrow Heavy in Preseason
In the preseason, it was actually Joe Burrow who drew the heaviest public action in the MVP market, pulling in 14% of all tickets and nearly a quarter of the total handle (23%) at around +600 odds. That optimism has quickly evaporated with his injury, wiping out what was one of the most popular early wagers. By contrast, Josh Allen was barely on the radar for bettors in August, claiming just 3.5% of the tickets due to his shorter, less appealing odds.
Other players who attracted notable preseason interest were Jalen Hurts (8.4% of the handle) and rookie Jayden Daniels (8.6%), as bettors searched for value outside of the most expensive options. The early approach made clear that while the public still prioritized quarterbacks, they were steering away from chalky names like Allen and Lamar Jackson in hopes of landing a bigger payout.
Betting on NFL Futures: A Quick Guide
Futures bets are one of the most fun ways to get action down on the NFL. Instead of just betting on who wins this week, you’re wagering on something bigger that plays out over the whole season (or all the way to the Super Bowl).
Think of futures as long-term tickets; they give you a rooting interest that sticks. Every win, loss, injury, or breakout performance can move the odds, and if you locked in early, that value is yours to ride all season long.
The most popular NFL futures markets include:
- Super Bowl Winner (which team hoists the Lombardi in February)
- Conference & Division Champions
- Regular Season Win Totals (Over/Unders)
- Player Awards (MVP, Rookie of the Year, Comeback Player, etc.)
- Stat Leaders (Most Passing Yards, Rushing Yards, etc.)
- Player Milestones (e.g., Will a QB hit 40+ Passing TDs?)
Super Bowl MVP Odds
If you’re not diving into futures market until mid-season, the Super Bowl MVP is a great place to look instead of this Regular Season MVP market. These odds are not up at most books as they wait for the contenders to make themselves known. It’s basically a two-part bet: you’re picking the team you think will win it all and which star will carry them.
- Quarterbacks usually dominate (think Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson).
- Running backs and wide receivers can cash if they have monster games on the big stage.
- Occasionally, a defensive player or special teams star sneaks in — rare, but the payouts are huge.
This market heats up late into the season, so you can hedge or double down based on which teams look like true contenders.
Explore oddschecker's NFL Futures Markets
Here’s a breakdown of all the NFL futures you can bet on this season, with quick explanations for casual fans:
Popular NFL Outrights
Super Bowl Winner – Which team lifts the Lombardi.
Super Bowl Matchup – Pick the exact two teams that will face off.
Super Bowl Winning Conference – AFC vs. NFC.
Super Bowl Winning Division – Which division produces the Super Bowl champ.
AFC Champion / NFC Champion – Who represents each conference in the big game.
#1 Seed Markets - AFC #1 Seed / NFC #1 Seed – Which team earns home-field advantage through the playoffs.
Player Awards
- Offensive Rookie of the Year / Defensive Rookie of the Year – Bet on which rookie makes the biggest impact in their first season.
- Comeback Player of the Year – Awarded to a player who bounces back from injury or a tough year.
- Coach of the Year – Goes to the head coach who turns a team around or exceeds expectations.
- Offensive Player of the Year / Defensive Player of the Year – Recognizes the best all-around offensive or defensive star outside of the MVP race.
- Protector of the Year – Honors the league’s best offensive lineman.
- MVP – The big one: Most Valuable Player across the entire NFL Regular Season.
Season Leader Odds
- Most Passing Yards – Which QB airs it out the most.
- Most Passing TDs – Quarterback with the most touchdown throws.
- Most Receiving Yards – Wideout or tight end who racks up the biggest yardage total.
- Most Rushing Yards – Running back (or dual-threat QB) who dominates on the ground.
How To Bet On NFL Futures
NFL futures betting is simple once you know the basics. Instead of betting on one Sunday’s outcome, you’re putting money on a result that plays out over weeks or months. The most common example? Picking which team will win the Super Bowl.
Here’s a quick step-by-step for betting NFL futures:
- Choose a sportsbook and sign up. Click any offer within this article to get started with some extra bonus funds.
- Find the futures tab. Futures odds are usually posted right after the previous season ends, so markets are open year-round.
- Lock in your pick. Odds reflect the current perception of a team or player, so acting early can often give you the best value.
- Sit back and watch it unfold. Futures betting is a long-term play — you’re in it for the season, not just the weekend.
NFL Award Betting FAQs
What types of bets can I make on NFL Player Awards?
Beyond just picking who wins the Regular Season NFL MVP, you can bet on:
- Comeback Player of the Year
- Coach of the Year
- Offensive Player of the Year
- Defensive Player of the Year
- Super Bowl MVP
- Offensive Rookie of the Year
- Defensive Rookie of the Year
What exactly is a futures bet?
A futures bet is a wager on something that won’t be decided right away — like who wins the Super Bowl, or whether a QB hits 4,000 passing yards in a season. Odds shift throughout the year, so locking in early can sometimes give you a better price.
Where can I bet on Super Bowl 60?
You can legally bet on Super Bowl 60 in most U.S. states with regulated sportsbooks. Top options include BetMGM, Caesars, FanDuel, DraftKings, Fanatics, and bet365. Each operator offers exclusive sign-up bonuses — check out our promo code page to maximize your value.
When is the best time to bet Super Bowl futures?
- Right after the previous Super Bowl — when odds first open and oddsmakers might undervalue rising teams.
- After the NFL Draft or big free-agent moves — when rosters take shape.
- Late preseason — when depth charts and injuries are clearer.
Can I cash out NFL futures early?
Yes, many sportsbooks now offer cash-out options, letting you secure profit (or cut losses) before the season ends if your team is in a good spot.
Why do Super Bowl odds change during the year?
Odds move based on betting action, injuries, roster moves, and performance. For example, if Josh Allen goes down in Week 2, the Bills’ odds would immediately lengthen.
What’s the difference between Super Bowl odds and playoff odds?
- Super Bowl Odds are outright — you’re betting on the champion.
- Playoff Odds are simpler — will a team make or miss the postseason?
Do I have to bet big money to win big?
Not at all. Futures bets often carry big payouts. A $25 bet on a +2000 underdog to win the Super Bowl would return $500 if it hits.
Can I bet on player stats all season long?
Yes. You can wager on passing yards, rushing touchdowns, receiving yards, and more. Books also post season milestones (ex: Will Mahomes throw 40+ TDs?) and weekly props once games kick off.
What’s the most popular Super Bowl prop?
Besides MVP, novelty props like the coin toss and Gatorade color dumped on the winning coach are staples every year.
More NFL Odds
