Moses Itauma is a red-hot 1/7 favourite to blow past Filip Hrgovic and claim the IBF heavyweight title tonight.
Moses Itauma's rapid rise reaches its biggest examination yet on Saturday when the unbeaten 21-year-old challenges Filip Hrgovic for the vacant IBF heavyweight title at the O2 Arena. Just 31 professional rounds into his career, Itauma is chasing a piece of history: victory would make him the second-youngest heavyweight world champion ever, behind only Mike Tyson.
Hrgovic, a decade older and considerably more battle-tested, has spent fight week needling his opponent, branding him a "kid" and vowing to send him "back to high school". The bookmakers, though, see this as anything but a even contest.
Moses Itauma vs. Filip Hrgovic Odds
Who is the Favourite in Moses Itauma vs. Filip Hrgovic?
Itauma is a huge 1/7 favourite, and the price reflects just how emphatically he's dismantled everyone put in front of him. Twelve knockouts from 14 fights, a blend of hand speed and ring IQ that pundits keep comparing to Oleksandr Usyk, and a habit of making seasoned operators look a step off the pace.
Hrgovic isn't there to make up the numbers, though. At 34, with an Olympic bronze medal and only one defeat on his record, a stoppage loss to Daniel Dubois caused by cuts rather than damage, he brings a reach advantage and a heavy right hand that's earned respect from people who've watched Itauma closely. But his tendency to smother his own work at close range, and a loose left hand when he loads up the right, are exactly the kind of gaps a fighter with Itauma's timing is built to exploit.
Moses Itauma vs. Filip Hrgovic Betting & Predictions
Despite being priced up at 6/1, Hrgovic has actually pulled in the majority of bets over the last week through oddschecker - 61% to Itauma's 38%.
That's a classic case of punters chasing the bigger price rather than backing the form horse; with Itauma so short at 1/7, plenty are willing to have a small-stakes swing on the veteran upsetting the odds rather than lump on at a rate that offers minimal returns.
They will be hoping Hrgovic finds a way to drag Itauma into the unchartered waters of the late rounds to try and turn this into a battle of stamina.
Where the market is far more unified is on how the fight ends. Moses Itauma by KO, TKO or disqualification is comfortably the most backed method of victory, and it's easy to see why. 12 of his 14 wins have come inside the distance, and he's stopped his last three opponents, including durable operators like Dillian Whyte and Jermaine Franklin, well inside the 12-round limit. If bettors are backing the favourite, they're backing him to do it early rather than grind out a decision.
Itauma is 1/3 to win by TKO or KO.
