Thomas Frank overcame a mid-season lull to lead Brentford to a remarkable 13th place finish in their first topflight season and secure safety by 11 points. But can the Bees avoid second season syndrome and maintain their topflight status?
What happened last year?
Despite being the lowest ranked championship team to gain promotion, achieving this via the playoffs, Brentford were the only one of the 3 promoted teams to stay up. In their first ever Premier League season, not only did they outperform the relegated Norwich and Watford, but they also managed to achieve a 13th place finish only five points off 10th placed Wolves and a comfortable 11 points above the drop.
After making only three permanent summer signings in preparation for their first attempt at England’s football elite, Thomas Frank’s men sat in 7th by the end of September, losing only once, 1-0 to Brighton, due to a 90th minute Leandro Trossard goal. There seemed to be no fluke of this with some of their results seemingly laying down the gauntlet, including a 2-0 win against Arsenal, a 3-3 draw against Liverpool and a 2-1 away win against West Ham.
However, reality seemed to be returning with only three wins in their next 20 games leaving them just one point above the drop in 17th by the end of February. But seven wins in their last 11 games nullified their mid-season lull and saw them charge up the table to finish 13th.
Key signings?
Aaron Hickey
Brentford suffered last season with several players covering the wing back position. Winger Sergi Canos was deployed at right-wing back for large parts of the season. Despite his creativity going forward his defensive skillset was limited and left vulnerability. Moreover, their major summer signing of centre-back Kristoffer Ajer from Celtic spent large parts covering here too.
Therefore, the arrival of Scottish full-back Aaron Hickey for £18 million is a huge positive for next season. Hickey spent two seasons at Bologna after signing from Hearts. In his first season, despite having injury setbacks, he was nominated for the Europe Golden Boy award. Last season, he took his form to new levels playing 35 times and scoring five goals helping Bologna to stabilise another mid-table finish. His arrival not only offers creativity going forward in terms of potential goals, taking off pressure from Toney and Mbeumo, but also facilitates Canos and particularly Ajer playing their preferred positions with Ajer likely to be pivotal at the heart of their defence.
Keane Lewis Potter
Brentford aren’t big spenders but have broken their club record to sign Keane Lewis-Potter from Hull for £20 million. With Eriksen deciding to sign with Manchester United, they are desperately needing someone to create chances for their exciting front two.
Potter is only 21 and has signed a monster six-year contract but his impact will need to be sooner than that if Brentford are to maintain their mid-table safety. He ended last season with 12 goals and three assists despite operating for a relegation threatened team and he should thrive being surrounded by better talent.
However, at such a young age, the worry is his impact may not be as immediate as that of veteran Eriksen who had played over 200 Premier League games before signing.
And who’s out?
Christian Eriksen
At the end of February Brentford sat in 17th, one point above the relegation zone. However, March 5th marked Eriksen’s first start for Brentford and his growing influence surged them up the table. Eriksen, who had most recently won the Scudetto with Antonio Conte’s Inter Milan, had been out of football for eight months after suffering a cardiac arrest whilst playing for Denmark in the Euro’s.
There was no doubt Eriksen, a player who registered a goal or an assist every 1.9 games for Tottenham, was a level above Brentford, yet he came with fitness risks and insurance risks attached and so many clubs steered clear allowing Thomas Frank to secure the coup of the season.
Indeed, in the final 11 games, Eriksen started 10 and created 2.9 chances per game, registering one goal and four assists. Indeed, since his first start on March 5th, Eriksen ranked 3rd for chances and created and passes into the final third.
His influence was transparent too with Brentford winning seven games from the 10 he started and taking a total of 22 points from a possible 30 to go from being one point off relegation to 11pts clear and a late surge into 13th place.
Who is their star man?
Christian Norgaard
Although Ivan Toney may steal the highlight reel with 12 goals and five assists, five of his goals were from the penalty spot and he doesn’t have the influence of Eriksen this term. Therefore, Brentford’s key man may be defensive midfielder Christian Norgaard.
Norgaard has turned his career around since reuniting with Thomas Frank and was Brentford’s player of the season. Indeed, he tops the Premier League list of combined tackles and interceptions at 173 whilst he is 4th in the list of possession won at 270.
His statistics don’t just stand out in the Premier League either, with his ranking top amongst Europe’s top five leagues on tackles won, winning 80.
What can we expect from them in 2022/23?
Brentford have a very young squad with Pontus Janson the only player of those who played 10+ games last season over 30. When Sheffield United went from 9th placed finish in their first season in the Premier League to be relegated the next, Chris Wilder spoke of the “anxiety” of his players and the importance of mentality. The worry is that such a young squad may suffer with a greater weight of expectation placed on them after such a successful first season and a positive mentality will be crucial for Brentford next season.
Their mid-season lull also offers concerns and although that was saved largely by the impact of Christian Eriksen, he is no longer here and young Lewis-Potter’s impact may not be so immediate. Hickey’s arrival should help Ajer play in his preferred centre-back position aswell as deploying Canos further up the pitch but they must find a way of pathing a way from defence to attack and creating enough chances for their exciting duo of Toney and Mbeumo. Unless they can find more creativity and a connection between defence and attack, I don’t envisage Frank’s men enjoying the same finish as last year.
Where do the odds project them to finish?
Brentford are around the 9/4 mark to get relegated and the 9/2 mark to finish in the top half.
Any recommended bets?
Brentford should be more involved in a relegation scrap this year, whether they have too much quality to keep them up is unknown but at best priced 11/4 they should be backed small stakes to go down.
