Sam McGuire explains why Everton’s defensive record provided a false sense of security in the early part of the season as the pressure grows on Frank Lampard.
Leicester City’s 2-0 victory away to Everton on Saturday saw them leapfrog their hosts as they climbed out of the relegation zone.
With Leeds United and Aston Villa both recording victories over the weekend, the Toffees slid down the Premier League table and now find themselves just two points clear of the bottom three.
At one stage earlier on in the campaign, Frank Lampard’s side had the best defensive record in the Premier League and managed to string together a six-game unbeaten run.
In early October, the manager commented on their defensive record: “I’m very happy because it’s a base that can help you win games. I’m also happy for the lads, because when you work as a team collectively it’s a really nice stat to hold onto.
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“What we have, for sure, is a great spirit and organisation. And we work hard on the training pitch, in trying to have that solid base. This Premier League is unforgiving, though, and if we drop those standards, then those nice things can change. We must take pride in that [the defensive record] and try to get even better because we can certainly improve defensively."
Since then, Everton have lost four of their six Premier League outings. On current form, they are one of the worst teams in the England top-flight with only Bournemouth (1) picking up fewer points over the last five matches.
No team has scored fewer goals in that period and the alarming thing for the Blues will be the fact all three of their goals arrived in the win over Crystal Palace. They have failed to score in four of their last five matches.
They are slowly but surely being dragged into a relegation battle. It would’ve been what few envisaged when they secured their place in the Premier League back in May.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin completed a remarkable turnaround against Crystal Palace in their penultimate game of the season to guarantee their spot in the top tier of English football. Trailing 2-0 at half-time, the Blues rallied in the second half to win the game late on.
Everton fans were behind Lampard and this union helped them take 10 points from their final 18 to secure safety. With supporters, players and the manager all pulling in the same direction, it was supposed to be the start of something.
They lost Richarlison in the summer to Spurs but managed to retain Calvert-Lewin and Anthony Gordon while adding Dwight McNeil, Neal Maupay, James Tarkowski, Conor Coady, Idrissa Gueye, Amadou Onana and James Garner.
Despite these reinforcements, Everton are currently picking up just one point per game. Last season it was 1.02 points per game.
They may have the third-best defensive record in the Premier League in terms of goals conceded (15) but the underlying numbers are not favourable.
Only Fulham (28.9), Nottingham Forest (26.7) and Bournemouth (25.9) have a higher Expected Goals Against total, with Everton having conceded chances worth 25.4 this season.
That suggests their defence isn’t as organised as Lampard implied in early October and that their goals conceded tally is down to poor finishing and good goalkeeping.
They also rank in the bottom three for goals scored (14) and 13th for Expected Goals (17.5). Being without Calvert-Lewin won’t have helped but the 25-year-old has just one goal in his six appearances this season. Everton aren’t creating high-value chances with great regularity and the chances they are creating aren’t being converted.
It is the worst possible combination.
Lampard is now a best price 5/1 in the next manager to leave market.
A key part of their survival last season was their home form under Lampard. In their final six matches at Goodison Park, Everton took 13 points, beating the likes of Newcastle United, Manchester United, Chelsea and Crystal Palace. In fact, 74% of their points haul was picked up at home.
This term, however, only Southampton (6) have taken fewer points at home with the Toffees claiming just eight points from the 21 on offer. They need Goodison Park to be a fortress.
Their defensive record has given them a false sense of security though but sooner or later, the opposition are going to start to convert their opportunities.
Combine that with the lack of threat in attack and Everton are in a relegation battle (best price 7/2). There’s no escaping that fact. Lampard might not be able to repeat the same trick as last season.
