Gareth Southgate has the biggest decision of his managerial career to make on Saturday as England take on France for a place in the World Cup semi-finals.
The Three Lions have played in bigger matches under the former Middlesbrough manager over the last few years but this one against France feels different. Southgate has to weigh up whether he should stick or twist against the reigning champions.
England have moved away from the double pivot system that Southgate was married to in previous tournaments. The formation may have shifted from a 3-4-3 to a 4-2-3-1 on occasion but the one constant was the two-man midfield. It was a base to build from and extra security for the defence.
At this World Cup, England have lined up in a 4-3-3. However, this morphs into a 2-3-5 when in possession, as shown in the picture below.
It essentially means England attack with five and defend with five.
As a result, they have scored 12 goals and conceded just twice in their four outings, keeping three clean sheets in the process. The tactic is a successful one.
Yet Southgate could be tempted to change it against France. It isn’t solely tied to Golden Boot and Golden Ball favourite Kylian Mbappe, but the PSG star (3/1 to join Real Madrid in January) does require a special focus if you are going to limit his impact.
England could switch back to a 3-4-3 and use Kyle Walker as the right-sided centre-back. He is perhaps the only player in the squad capable of keeping up with Mbappe in a foot race. The Manchester City man also has the physicality to not be bullied by the 24-year-old.
But does this send out the wrong message? The change in formation would mean the Three Lions are defending with seven and attacking with just three.
The plan might be to frustrate before hitting the French on the break but if the numbers aren’t there in the final third, Didier Deschamps’ side will easily deal with the threat.
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Another potential solution to the Mbappe problem would be to tweak the shape to a 4-2-3-1. It isn’t quite as defensive as the 3-4-3 but does offer some solidity in midfield. With two sitting ahead of the centre-backs, it means the wide areas can be covered without sacrificing the centre of the pitch.
For example, if Stones has to track someone into the right-sided channel, one of the two midfielders can drop in at centre-back. Alternatively, if one of the midfielders heads into the wide areas, the other one can cover. On paper, England would be defending with six and attacking with four.
If Southgate wants to be bold, he will stick with the shape that has served him so well in Qatar.
Yes, it might allow Mbappe to isolate players in certain situations but he has the ability to do that against teams who sit in a low block anyway. Instead of thinking of ways to limit what the opposition can do, England might be best served thinking of ways that they can hurt their opponents.
France haven’t looked the most composed in defence and Raphael Varane has had a few dodgy moments. Why not look to put pressure on him with runners from midfield?
If France are pinned, the likes of Theo Hernandez can’t be at his marauding best and Antoine Griezmann, in his new midfield role, is tasked with defensive work. If Olivier Giroud (30/1 best price for the Golden Boot) is then feeding off scraps, France can’t be at their electrifying best.
The best form of defence is attack. Southgate should stick and England should get at France.
England vs France Odds: Selected Markets
| Selection | Best Price | Worst Price |
|---|---|---|
| England | 21/10 | 15/8 |
| France | 6/4 | 13/10 |
| Draw | 23/10 | 21/10 |
| Mbappe First Scorer | 5/1 | 7/2 |
| England Clean Sheet | 11/4 | 47/20 |
