Sam McGuire discusses what lessons were learned from the two league meetings between Manchester City and Manchester United ahead of the FA Cup Final.
As odd as it may sound, Manchester United head into the FA Cup final against neighbours Manchester City as the form team.
Erik Ten Hag’s men won four successive matches to bring their 2022/23 Premier League season to an end with United claiming third position. By comparison, Manchester City are winless in two having drawn with Brighton before losing to Brentford. These games didn’t matter in the grand scheme of things having already secured a third successive title under Pep Guardiola, but it is interesting if you give much credence to momentum in the sport of football.
City have eyes on completing a historic treble, matching what the Red Devils did in 1999, whereas United are looking to complete a domestic cup double to turn a good season under Ten Hag into a great one.
Manchester City and Manchester United's Road To The Final
Usually, when two Premier League teams face off in a final, you can use previous matches to get an idea of what to expect. For example, last season’s clash between Liverpool and Chelsea was destined to be a tight affair. Why? Well, their previous three matches had finished as draws and the teams had shared just two goals across those games.
This time around, however, it’ll be much more difficult. The two games this season between City and United could not have been any more different.
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In the match at the Etihad, City romped to a thumping 6-3 win with both Erling Haaland and Phil Foden netting hat-tricks. The hosts had 54% of the ball, attempted 558 passes and had 22 shots on their way to an Expected Goals total of 3.06. Guardiola went with a more traditional line-up in the game with Jack Grealish and Foden on either side of Haaland in the attack.
Kevin De Bruyne and Bernardo Silva made up a midfield three alongside Ilkay Gundogan while the back four included Kyle Walker, Manuel Akanji, Nathan Ake and Joao Cancelo.
United lined up in a 4-2-3-1 with Marcus Rashford spearheading the attack. Jadon Sancho, Bruno Fernandes and Antony were tasked with supporting the England international. The double pivot in midfield was Christian Eriksen and Scott McTominay with Casemiro on the bench.
Ten Hag used Tyrell Malacia as his left-back with Diogo Dalot at right-back. Lisandro Martinez formed a centre-back partnership with Raphael Varane.
The starting XIs weren’t too different for the reverse fixture.
United included six players who started the 6-3 loss to City but their roles had been altered. For example, Rashford was deployed on the left of a three behind Anthony Martial with Eriksen playing as an attacking midfielder and Fernandes starting on the right. Fred partnered his compatriot Casemiro in midfield with Luke Shaw playing as a left-sided centre-back. Aaron Wan-Bissaka replaced Dalot at right-back.
City made just two changes to their team with Riyad Mahrez replacing Foden and Rodri coming in for Gundogan.
Yet the game couldn’t have been any different.
For starters, City had much more of the ball (71%) and attempted 744 passes. Despite their on-ball dominance, they failed to trouble the United backline. The visitors did take the lead in the second half through Grealish but managed just five shots across the 90 minutes. Their Expected Goals return of 0.67 is the lowest of the season.
United looked to hit City on the break and they carved out some decent openings. Granted, their opener was rather controversial with Fernandes arriving from deep to take the ball off of an offside Rashford. They nailed their tactics though by limiting their opponents while also threatening on multiple occasions.
So what can we learn from these games? The only real constant across both matches is Man United’s ability to create chances - they had an Expected Goals total of 1.72 in the 6-3 loss and an Expected Goals total of 1.67 in the 2-1 win. Aside from that, we know that if Ten Hag creates a specific plan for this game, United do have the players to frustrate their opponents and can cause issues on the counter.
But we’re yet to see this United team face off against this new system being utilised by Guardiola - the 3-2-2-3 shape. That alone will be intriguing.
One thing is for sure though, there are going to be goals in this game. There always is.
FA Cup Final Winner Odds
| Team | Best Price | Worst Price |
|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 3/10 | 2/9 |
| Manchester United | 3/1 | 5/2 |
