Newcastle Champions League Odds: Newcastle 27% likely to qualify for last 16

We are entering last chance saloon for Newcastle's hopes in the 2023/24 Champions League ahead of their final Group F match tonight against AC Milan.

Read Scott Thornton's match prediction here.

Going into the match, Newcastle should take comfort from their home form. Eddie Howe’s side have the highest home xG (expected goals) in the Premier League with 20.44. They have won nine of their 11 matches at St. James' Park so far this season, losing only to Liverpool and Borussia Dortmund. 

How can Newcastle qualify for Champions League last 16?

Newcastle must beat AC Milan at St James' Park on Wednesday night to stand any chance of qualifying for the last 16 of the Champions League.

However, the Magpies are also relying on Paris St-Germain not beating already qualified Borussia Dortmund at the Westfalenstadion.

If Kylian Mbappe's Paris St-Germain win, they will top the group and Newcastle will be out whatever the result in Newcastle's match. 

Should PSG only draw in Dortmund, Newcastle would progress with a win on goal difference. That's because the first tiebreaker for teams tied on points is the goal difference between the two teams (+3 for Newcastle) in matches against each other.

In betting terms, the chances of Newcastle progressing to the last 16 can be found by pairing a Newcastle win with Dortmund-Draw double chance against PSG. This comes out at a best price of 2.67/1 on BetMGM, giving an implied chance of 27%.

Can Newcastle go into the Europa League?

If PSG beat Dortmund tonight, Newcastle vs Milan becomes a shootout for the Europa League spot in Group F. A draw would be good enough for Newcastle’s side on overall goal difference, because the goal difference between the two teams is level (0-0 at the San Siro in September).

There is only a 25% chance that Newcastle will be playing no European football in the new year (implied probability from the best price for an AC Milan win - 29/10 on Sky Bet).

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