It's five into three for the final Champions League place - who comes out on top in the race for the Top 5?
As the 2024/25 Premier League season approaches its final whistle on Sunday, several major outcomes have already been decided, leaving little ambiguity at the top and bottom of the table.
Liverpool emphatically sealed the title with a dominant 5 - 1 win over Tottenham back in April, securing their second Premier League crown with four games to spare and drawing level with Manchester United on 20 top-flight championships overall. Arsenal, meanwhile, have already confirmed a third consecutive second-place finish.
At the other end of the table, the relegation battle has long been settled, with all three promoted clubs -Southampton, Leicester City and Ipswich Town - dropping straight back down to the Championship.
This marks only the third instance in English football history where all three promoted sides have gone straight back down - the second time being last season.
Southampton’s descent was confirmed earliest, setting a new Premier League record for the quickest relegation with seven games still to play.
As the final day of the season looms, all eyes now shift to the remaining Champions League places, with five sides vying for the remaining three spots in the competiton.
Below is a look at how the Premier League table shapes up ahead of the final day.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool | 37 | 25 | 8 | 4 | 85 | 40 | +45 | 83 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 37 | 19 | 14 | 4 | 67 | 33 | +34 | 71 |
| 3 | Man City | 37 | 20 | 8 | 9 | 70 | 44 | +26 | 68 |
| 4 | Newcastle | 37 | 20 | 6 | 11 | 68 | 46 | +22 | 66 |
| 5 | Chelsea | 37 | 19 | 9 | 9 | 63 | 43 | +20 | 66 |
| 6 | Aston Villa | 37 | 19 | 9 | 9 | 58 | 49 | +9 | 66 |
| 7 | Nottm Forest | 37 | 19 | 8 | 10 | 58 | 45 | +13 | 65 |
Premier League Top 5 Odds
| Team | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Man City | 1/25 | 96% |
| Newcastle | 1/5 | 83% |
| Chelsea | 8/11 | 58% |
| Aston Villa | 5/4 | 44% |
| Nottingham Forest | 4/1 | 20% |
Who qualifies for the Champions League in the Premier League?
From the 2024/25 season, the Champions League has moved to a new 36-team "Swiss model" format, replacing the old group stage with one big league.
That change also means more Premier League teams can qualify - and for 2025/26, five teams will go through via league position, with a sixth already guaranteed.
Why? Thanks to strong English performances in Europe, the Premier League earned one of two European Performance Spots (EPS) - extra Champions League places awarded to the two best-performing leagues in UEFA competitions this season.
Tottenham’s Europa League win over Manchester United played a big part, as did deep runs from Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, and others. The upshot: England’s UEFA coefficient ranked in the top two, beating rivals like La Liga and the Bundesliga.
That means the top five Premier League teams this season will qualify for the 2025/26 Champions League. Liverpool and Arsenal are confirmed, with Man City, Newcastle, Chelsea, Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest battling for the final three places.
Tottenham, currently 17th, will also be in next season’s Champions League as Europa League winners—bringing the total number of English teams in the competition to six.
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Top 5 Betting
| Team | % of Total Bets |
|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 32.35% |
| Newcastle | 22.35% |
| Chelsea | 20.59% |
| Nottingham Forest | 18.24% |
| Man City | 13.53% |
The table above shows the percentage of bets taken through oddschecker since the conclusion of gameweek 37 on the top 5 finish market.
Bettors have favoured one of the outsiders in the market - Aston Villa - who are available at a best price of 5/4 with BetVictor.
Man City Champions League Odds
The pre-season favourites to win the league, Manchester City head into the final day of the 2024/25 Premier League season with odds of 1/25 with William Hill to secure Champions League qualification.
Sitting third with 68 points and a superior goal difference, Pep Guardiola’s side need just a point away at Fulham to confirm a top-five finish and book their place in the 2025/26 UEFA Champions League.
69 points would almost definitely be enough. The only real threat comes if all three of Newcastle, Chelsea, and Villa win and two of them surpass City on goal difference. However, with Aston Villa’s significantly lower goal difference (+9), it would take an extraordinary margin of victory for them to leapfrog City (+26).
Even in defeat, City are still strong favourites to qualify thanks to their cushion over Newcastle, Chelsea, Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest - three of whom would all need wins to have a chance of overtaking them.
Newcastle Champions League Odds
Newcastle United head into the final day of the 2024/25 Premier League season with a 1/5 chance with bet365 of securing a UEFA Champions League spot for the 2025/26 campaign.
Sitting fourth with 66 points and a healthy +22 goal difference, Eddie Howe’s side need a win at home against Everton to all but guarantee a top-five finish.
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Victory would take them to 69 points - enough to stay ahead of at least two of Chelsea, Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest. It is almost impossible for Aston Villa to leapfrog Newcastle given their far superior goal difference and Nottingham Forest can't reach 69 points.
A draw could still see Newcastle qualify, but it would leave them relying on Aston Villa to drop points at Manchester United and on Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest not ending in a draw.
A defeat, however, would put Newcastle’s Champions League hopes in serious jeopardy, needing Villa to lose to have any hope.
Chelsea Champions League Odds
Chelsea’s chances of qualifying for the 2025/26 UEFA Champions League hang in the balance heading into the final day of the Premier League season with a 8/11 chance (Sky Bet).
Sitting 5th with 66 points and a strong +20 goal difference, the Blues face a decisive away clash against direct top-five rivals Nottingham Forest.
Victory at the City Ground would all but secure Chelsea a Champions League spot, thanks to their superior goal difference over Aston Villa and points advantage over Forest.
However, a draw would leave Chelsea relying on results elsewhere, with hopes pinned on either Villa failing to beat Manchester United or Newcastle losing at home to Everton.
A loss, meanwhile, would almost certainly end their Champions League hopes, with only a highly unlikely swing in goal difference offering any lifeline.
Forest would leapfrog them in this scenario and if Newcastle or draw Villa win Chelsea would finish 7th.
They would need Aston Villa to lose to Man United and Newcastle to lose to Everton by a margin of three or more goals than Chelsea lose by.
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Aston Villa Champions League Odds
Aston Villa head into the final day of the 2024/25 Premier League season with a 5/4 chance (BetVictor) of securing a Champions League spot, but their fate is out of their hands.
Level on 66 points with Chelsea and Newcastle, Villa’s inferior goal difference (+6) puts them at a significant disadvantage in the race for a top-five finish.
Unai Emery’s side must beat Manchester United at Old Trafford to have any realistic hope of qualifying for the 2025/26 UEFA Champions League.
Even with a win, Villa still need at least one of their direct rivals - Chelsea (away at Nottingham Forest) or Newcastle (away at Everton) - to drop points or Man City to lose.
A draw or loss would almost certainly end Villa’s hopes due to tiebreakers heavily favouring their competitors.
Back Aston Villa Top 5 Finish!
Nottingham Forest Champions League Odds
Nottingham Forest remain in contention (4/1 with William Hill) for a Champions League place going into the final day of the 2024/25 Premier League season, but their hopes rest on both victory and favours elsewhere.
Currently sitting on 65 points with a +13 goal difference, Forest must beat Chelsea at the City Ground to leapfrog their rivals and keep the dream alive.
A win would take Forest to 68 points - potentially enough to finish in the top five if either Newcastle (away at Everton) or Aston Villa (away at Manchester United) fail to win.
However, a draw or defeat would almost certainly end Forest’s Champions League aspirations.
