Following the penultimate Champions League group stage match, we analyse the chances of a Top 8 Finish for the English clubs.
With only one game to go in the Champions League group stage, the race is heating up to get through automatically to the Round of 16 through a Top 8 Finish.
We check out each English team's odds to achieve a Top 8 Finish, who they face in Gameweek 8, and some of the permutations which would see them avoid a play-off round.
Arsenal - Current Position: 1st (Top 8 Finish Secured)
Gameweek 8 Match: vs Kairat Almaty (H)
Arsenal secured their place in the Round of 16 and in the Top Two of the league phase with an emphatic 3-1 victory over Inter Milan on Tuesday night. Winning in Milan took Arsenal's league phase record to 7 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses. That victory also means throughout the knockout stages, Arsenal will play the second-leg of their tie at home. Mikel Arteta's side are currently the 4/1 favourites to win this year's Champions League.
In a match which effectively means nothing, with Bayern Munich three points and five goals behind them in second, Arteta will most likely look to rest key players in their Gameweek 8 tie at home to Kairat Almaty. At the time of writing, Arsenal are 1/16 favourites to get the win in that one.
Liverpool - Current Position: 4th
Gameweek 8 Match: vs Qarabag (H)
Top 8 Finish Odds: 1/40 (97.6% Implied Probability)
Liverpool's statement victory 3-0 away at Marseille on Wednesday all but confirmed their place in the Champions League Top 8. That win took The Reds' record in the league phase to 5 wins and two losses, placing them on 15 points, two points clear of Barcelona in 9th.
Arne Slot's team host Qarabag to Anfield on Gameweek 8 and are heavily favoured to get the result they need to automatically progress to the knockout stages. This is represented in their current odds of 1/40 (97.6% probability) to finish in the Top 8.
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Tottenham - Current Position: 5th
Gameweek 8 Match - vs Eintracht Frankfurt (A)
Top 8 Finish Odds - 1/1 (50% Implied Probability)
Currently sat on 14 points, Tottenham could still mathematically leapfrogged by 11 teams on Gameweek 8 with Borussia Dortmund in 16th on 11 points the last team. Tuesday's win over BVB eased the pressure on manager Thomas Frank and improved their Top 8 chances, with bookmakers cutting their odds from 9/4 to 1/1.
In Gameweek 8, Spurs travel to face Eintracht Frankfurt, who are 33rd in the table and are already eliminated from this season's Champions League. The latest odds have Spurs are 10/11 favourites to get the victory they need on the final matchday to secure their Top 8 position.
Newcastle - Current Position: 7th
Gameweek 8 Match - vs PSG (A)
Top 8 Finish Odds: 7/1 (12.5% Implied Probability)
Newcastle face the hardest task on paper out of the English clubs to finish inside the Champions League Top 8, despite their current position in the table. Eddie Howe's side will travel to PSG on Gameweek 8 to face the holders, with the hosts also needing a result to secure their Top 8 position. The Parisiens are currently one place above Newcastle in the table, bettering the Geordies on goal difference.
Similar to Spurs, Newcastle can be leapfrogged on Gameweek 8 by everyone down to Borussia Dortmund in 11th. Considering they are just under 4/1 to get the victory away in Paris, bookmakers currently have Toon at 7/1 to achieve a Top 8 Champions League finish.
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Chelsea - Current Position: 8th
Gameweek 8 Match - vs Napoli (A)
Top 8 Finish Odds: 7/4 (36.4% Implied Probability)
Another English team facing an uphill task in Gameweek 8 is Liam Rosenior's Chelsea team. The Blues will travel to Napoli on the final matchday with their Italian rivals desperate for a win to pull them back into a play-off position. The Naples side currently sit in 25th and as it stands, would face elimination from the tournament at the league phase.
Bookmakers currently have the Napoli vs Chelsea match a near-level match up, with the home side 15/8 and Chelsea 7/5. The latest odds of 7/4 for a Top 8 Finish mean the bookies are favouring Chelsea to miss out on automatic qualifcation and face a play-off match up to make the Round of 16.
Manchester City - Current Position: 11th
Gameweek 8 Match - vs Galatasaray (H)
Top 8 Finish Odds: 5/6 (54.5% Implied Probability)
Following their shock 3-1 defeat away to Bodo/Glimt on Tuesday, Manchester City are the only English club who's Top 8 fate is out of their hands heading into the final matchday. Luckily for City, they face an easier task than others around them on Gameweek 8, hosting a Galatasaray side who sit comfortably in 17th. Despite mathematically being able to finish in the Top 8 and finish outside of the Top 24, it would be a near miracle if either were to happen to the Turkish side.
City are 1/4 favourites to get the victory on Gameweek 8 and put themselves in a strong position to achieve a Top 8 Finish.
