Harry Kane remains the Ballon d’Or favourite, but Declan Rice, Ousmane Dembele, Michael Olise and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia are closing in.
Harry Kane remains the favourite in the latest Ballon d’Or odds, but the market has tightened dramatically with Arsenal and Paris Saint-Germain preparing to meet in the Champions League final.
The Bayern Munich and England striker is now 3/1 to win the award, having drifted from 6/4 during May, while Oddschecker data shows that 63% of all bets so this week have backed either Kane or Declan Rice.
Kane accounts for 34% of weekly bets, with Rice close behind on 29%. That represents a major surge for the Arsenal midfielder, who had attracted just 12% of bets in the month before this week.
Who is the favourite to win the Ballon d'Or?
Harry Kane remains the Ballon d’Or favourite at 3/1, but the market has tightened sharply around Champions League finalists. Oddschecker data shows 63% of bets this week backed Kane or Declan Rice, while Dembele, Olise and Kvaratskhelia have shortened dramatically from triple or double-figure odds.
Kane still favourite despite May drift
Kane’s Ballon d’Or case remains built on extraordinary individual numbers. He finished the Bundesliga season with 36 league goals, becoming the first player in Bundesliga history to win the top scorer award in each of his first three seasons in Germany. Bayern also ended the league campaign as champions with a record-breaking 122 goals.
However, Bayern’s Champions League exit has clearly opened the door for other contenders. Kane scored his 55th goal of the season in the semi-final second leg against PSG, but it arrived too late to stop the holders progressing to the final.
That explains the drift from 6/4 to 3/1. Kane is still the market leader, but without the Champions League, his hopes may now depend heavily on whether England can give him another major stage at the World Cup.
Declan Rice the betting story of the week
The biggest betting mover by volume is Rice. His odds place him among the leading contenders, but the sharper story is the weight of support: 29% of all Ballon d’Or bets this week, compared with just 12% in the previous month.
Rice’s claim is less about raw attacking numbers and more about status, influence and silverware. Arsenal have reached the Champions League final for only the second time in their history, beating Atletico Madrid 2-1 on aggregate, while Rice’s defensive output in their Premier League title-winning season has been stellar: 70 tackles and 37 interceptions in a campaign where Arsenal boasted the league’s meanest defence.
Luis Enrique’s comments before the final also help frame the Rice narrative. The PSG boss described Arsenal as “the best team in the world” without the ball.
Dembele, Olise & Kvaratskhelia among the major movers
Ousmane Dembele is now the 9/2 second favourite, a remarkable turnaround given he had been as big as 100/1 in March.
Dembele’s case is also about more than goals. Luis Enrique has praised his work rate and defensive contribution, saying PSG’s forwards must be judged on what they do without the ball as well as their attacking output.
Michael Olise is another big riser. Now 6/1 fourth-favourite, he had been as big as 33/1 in January. Olise was voted the Bundesliga’s Player of the Season for 2025/26, no player provided more assists in the Bundesliga and only Kane was involved in more goals.
Kvaratskhelia may be the most explosive contender left in the market. The PSG winger was 200/1 in March but is now 8/1 fifth-favourite. He has 10 goals and six assists in this season’s Champions League and became the first player since the last-16 format returned in 2003 to contribute to a goal in seven successive knockout matches.
With PSG facing Arsenal in the Champions League final on Saturday 30 May at the Puskás Aréna in Budapest, a decisive Kvaratskhelia display could see him shorten close to favouritism.
Last 10 Ballon d’Or winners
| Year | Winner |
|---|---|
| 2025 | Ousmane Dembele |
| 2024 | Rodri |
| 2023 | Lionel Messi |
| 2022 | Karim Benzema |
| 2021 | Lionel Messi |
| 2019 | Lionel Messi |
| 2018 | Luka Modric |
| 2017 | Cristiano Ronaldo |
| 2016 | Cristiano Ronaldo |
| 2015 | Lionel Messi |
When will the Ballon d’Or be awarded?
The official date for the 2026 Ballon d’Or ceremony has not yet been confirmed by UEFA or France Football at the time of writing. The 2025 ceremony took place at the Théâtre du Châtelet in Paris on Monday 22 September, with Dembele winning the men’s award.
The award is judged across the season rather than the calendar year, with UEFA’s guidance stating that the reference period covers the full season from August to the following August, including international competitions. That means the Champions League final and this summer’s World Cup could still have a decisive impact on the race.
The World Cup final is scheduled for Sunday 19 July 2026, so performances in North America may yet reshape the market before the Ballon d’Or voting picture becomes clearer.
