World Cup Golden Boot: Messi, Haaland & Mbappe Odds to Win

Lionel Messi has replaced Kylian Mbappe as the favourite to win the 2026 World Cup Golden Boot after scoring a hat-trick for Argentina, while Erling Haaland also made an immediate impact on his tournament debut.

Seven goals from three of football’s biggest names transformed the Golden Boot market on Tuesday.

Messi’s treble in Argentina’s 3-0 victory over Algeria saw his odds collapse from 22/1 to 11/4, moving him ahead of Mbappe at the top of the betting.

Mbappe was cut from 6/1 to 3/1 after scoring twice in France’s 3-1 win over Senegal, while Haaland shortened from 18/1 to 8/1 following his brace in Norway’s 4-1 victory over Iraq.

Who is favourite to win the 2026 World Cup Golden Boot?

Lionel Messi is the new favourite to win the 2026 World Cup Golden Boot at 11/4, after scoring a hat-trick against Algeria. Kylian Mbappe is close behind at 3/1, while Erling Haaland has shortened to 8/1 following his brace against Iraq.

Why Have Lionel Messi’s Golden Boot Odds Shortened?

Messi’s odds were cut dramatically from 22/1 to 11/4 after his first World Cup hat-trick.

His performance against Algeria took him to 16 career World Cup goals, level with Miroslav Klose’s men’s tournament record. Messi also became the first player to appear at six World Cups and the oldest player to score a World Cup hat-trick.

The three goals came on his 200th appearance for Argentina and immediately gave him control of the early Golden Boot race.

Argentina next face Austria before completing their group campaign against Jordan. Those fixtures should give Messi further opportunities, particularly because Lionel Scaloni’s team continue to structure much of their attacking play around him.

Can Messi win the Golden Boot?

Messi has three clear advantages:

• He already has a one-goal lead.
• Argentina are strong candidates to reach the knockout stages.
• He remains central to their chance creation and finishing.

The principal concern is his workload. Messi turns 39 during the tournament, and Argentina could manage his minutes if qualification is secured early.

His price has also contracted considerably after one performance. At 11/4, bettors are being asked to back him at close to the shortest point in the market despite most of the tournament still being ahead.

Messi verdict: The deserved favourite based on the current standings, but his price now offers less value than it did before the tournament.

Is Kylian Mbappe the Most Likely Golden Boot Winner?

Mbappe shortened from 6/1 to 3/1 after scoring twice in France’s 3-1 win over Senegal.

His second goal made him France’s outright record international scorer with 58 goals. The brace also took him to 14 career World Cup goals, placing him only two behind Messi and Klose.

Mbappe has already demonstrated that he can sustain his scoring across an entire World Cup. He won the 2022 Golden Boot with eight goals, including three in the final against Argentina.

France face Iraq next before meeting Haaland’s Norway in their final group match. The Iraq fixture could provide Mbappe with an immediate opportunity to move level with or ahead of Messi.

Why Mbappe may be the strongest selection

Mbappe combines three qualities that are particularly important in a Golden Boot market:

• An established World Cup scoring record.
• A leading role within one of the tournament’s strongest teams.
• A realistic chance of playing seven or eight matches.

France were not completely convincing during the first half against Senegal, but their attacking depth became evident after the break. Bradley Barcola also scored after coming off the bench, underlining the number of chances France can create even when their overall performance is uneven.

The drawback is that Didier Deschamps has several elite attacking options capable of sharing the goals. However, Mbappe remains France’s primary scorer and produced two decisive finishes even during a match in which he was relatively quiet for long periods.

Oddschecker betting activity indicates that bettors still regard him as the man to beat. Mbappe has received 49% of all Golden Boot bets placed through Oddschecker during the last 12 hours, compared with 21% for Haaland and 17% for Messi.

Mbappe verdict: The most complete Golden Boot candidate and Oddschecker’s preferred winner of the three at 3/1.

Can Erling Haaland Win the Golden Boot?

Haaland’s Golden Boot odds shortened from 18/1 to 8/1 after his two goals helped Norway defeat Iraq 4-1.

Both goals came during the first half of his World Cup debut. His opening finish came from a low cross into the penalty area before his pressure on the Iraq defence helped create his second.

Norway’s tactical approach is an important part of Haaland’s appeal. Stale Solbakken’s team are designed to deliver the ball into areas where their centre-forward can finish, giving Haaland a potentially greater share of his country’s chances than Messi or Mbappe.

His qualifying record also demonstrates his international scoring potential. Haaland scored 16 goals in eight European qualifying matches as Norway reached their first World Cup since 1998.

What could prevent Haaland winning?

Norway’s remaining group matches are considerably more difficult.

They face Senegal next before playing France. Norway are also less certain than Argentina or France to progress deep into the knockout rounds, which could leave Haaland with fewer appearances.

The 4-1 scoreline against Iraq was comfortable, but Norway did not dominate every stage of the match and conceded an equaliser during the first half. Their defensive vulnerabilities could become more significant against stronger opposition.

Haaland may therefore need to score heavily during the group stage rather than relying on a long run towards the final.

Haaland verdict: The best value option at 8/1, but Norway’s difficult group and less certain knockout prospects make him a riskier selection than Mbappe or Messi.

Compare the Latest World Cup Golden Boot Odds

Think Messi will hold on, Mbappe will defend his Golden Boot or Haaland will finish as the tournament’s leading scorer? Compare the latest 2026 World Cup Golden Boot odds from leading bookmakers on Oddschecker.