Kylian Mbappe is now the favourite to win the World Cup Golden Boot following his two goals vs Sweden on Tuesday.
Kylian Mbappe has been cut from 7/2 to 1/1 to win the 2026 World Cup Golden Boot after scoring twice in France’s 3-0 win over Sweden.
The France captain is now level with Lionel Messi at the top of the tournament scoring charts on six goals, while Erling Haaland sits just behind on five.
Mbappe’s brace also strengthened his position in the Golden Boot standings because he has two assists, which would give him the edge if he and Messi finish level on goals. Golden Boot ties are decided first by assists, then by fewest minutes played.
Mbappe dominates Golden Boot betting after Sweden double
Oddschecker betting data shows a sharp surge in support for Mbappe following his Sweden brace, with 68% of Golden Boot bets in the last 12 hours backing the France forward.
That is a major shift from the pre-tournament market, where only 7% of bets had been placed on Mbappe to finish as top scorer. Despite being the third-most popular pick before a ball was kicked, the 2022 Golden Boot winner is now the clear market mover after another decisive knockout-stage display.
Latest World Cup Golden Boot odds
Kylian Mbappe and Lionel Messi take up a big chunk of the World Cup betting market, currently priced at 1/1 and 6/4 respectively. Harry Kane (18/1), Erling Haaland (20/1) and Vinicius Jr (33/1) follow them in the market.
Why is Mbappe favourite to win the Golden Boot?
Mbappe’s case is built on form, volume and France’s tournament path. He now has 18 goals in 18 World Cup appearances, putting him just one behind Messi’s all-time men’s World Cup record, and his six goals at this tournament have come before France have even reached the quarter-finals.
Mbappe won the 2022 World Cup Golden Boot with eight goals after his final hat-trick against Argentina, so he has already shown he can sustain elite scoring numbers deep into a tournament.
France’s attacking structure should only help his chances. Olise’s creativity has become a major weapon, while Bradley Barcola and Ousmane Dembele give France the width and pace to stretch opponents and create space for Mbappe in central areas. France have scored at least three goals in five consecutive matches and have outscored opponents 13-2 overall, underlining why the market has reacted so strongly to Mbappe’s latest double.
Can Messi, Haaland or Kane catch Mbappe?
Messi remains the biggest threat in the betting market, sitting level with Mbappe on six goals. However, Mbappe’s assists advantage could prove crucial if the pair finish tied, and France’s attacking depth arguably gives him the stronger supply line.
Haaland is still firmly in the race on five goals, but Norway face a tougher route, with Brazil next in the Round of 16.
Kane is available at a much bigger price, but he would likely need England to go deep and for his penalty-box role to produce a major knockout-stage surge. At this stage, the market is increasingly centred around Mbappe and Messi, with Haaland the main outsider still within touching distance.
When do France and Mbappe play next?
France will face Paraguay in the Round of 16 on July 4, giving Mbappe another opportunity to strengthen his Golden Boot lead.
With France scoring freely, Mbappe level at the top of the scoring chart and Oddschecker punters now moving heavily behind him, the shift from 7/2 to 1/1 looks like one of the biggest Golden Boot market moves of the tournament so far.
