With Brazil, Portugal, and the Netherlands eliminated, France and Spain have emerged as the leading contenders to win the World Cup.
The World Cup has reached the quarter-final stage and the outright betting market has undergone a dramatic reshuffle. While several traditional powers entered the tournament among the favourites, the Round of 16 delivered enough surprises to significantly alter the landscape.
Before a ball was kicked, Spain, France, Argentina and England headed most bookmakers’ lists. Brazil, despite questions over consistency, also commanded strong support. Since then, Brazil’s shock defeat to Norway and Portugal’s exit at the hands of Spain have narrowed the field considerably.
The Round of 16 itself was packed with intrigue. France edged Paraguay 1–0, Morocco continued their remarkable run by defeating Canada 3–0, and England survived a stern test from Mexico. Spain’s disciplined victory over Portugal underlined their credentials, while Belgium dispatched the United States with authority. Norway’s upset of Brazil stands as the knockout stage’s defining surprise so far, and Argentina and Switzerland completed the quarter-final line-up with victories over Egypt and Colombia respectively.
Who is the Betting Favourite to Win the 2026 World Cup?
France and Spain are the favourites to win the 2026 World Cup according to latest odds, with both sitting at the top of the market in current odds listings. The 2018 Champions have an implied win probability of 32% and are as short as 21/10 to win the trophy. Didier Deschamps’ side have combined defensive solidity with attacking flair, conceding just once in their last three matches while continuing to create chances in abundance. Their path is far from straightforward, however, with a quarter-final against a fearless Moroccan team and the prospect of meeting either Spain or Belgium in the semi-finals.
Spain, meanwhile, eliminated Portugal and now have an implied probability of 20% to win their second title. Their possession-based approach has been complemented by a newfound ruthlessness in front of goal, and they look every inch a championship-calibre side.
Argentina and England occupy the next tier of contenders. The reigning champions still possess the experience to go all the way, despite surviving a scare twice in two rounds. Their current odds to win are 9/2 (implied win probabiltiy of 18%), while Thomas Tuchel's England side also remain in the hunt with 16% chance of winning their first World Cup title in 60 years.
Dark Horses of the 2026 World Cup
With Germany, Portugal, Brazil and Netherlands out of the World Cup, there are currently a few Dark Horses that can upset the favourites and go all way. Among them, Norway deserve special mention. Inspired by Erling Haaland and buoyed by their stunning triumph over Brazil, they have maintained their dark horses reputation, and even turned themselves into legitimate threats.
Facing England in their next match, this would be one of the standout Quarter-Final ties, and will be really introguing to watch how the English defenders contain Erling Haaland. Norway are defensively sound, and have a goalkeeper in fine form, which is always a bonus heading into the latter end of the tournament.
Morocco’s fairy-tale run continues to capture imaginations, though sustaining it against Europe’s elite will be an enormous challenge. The Atlas Lions have already shown they are far more than a feel-good story. An unbeaten group-stage campaign that included Brazil, followed by a commanding 3–0 victory over Canada, has given them genuine belief.
Their compact defensive structure, technical midfield and pace on the break make them dangerous against any opponent. However, overcoming France in the quarter-finals will require another exceptional performance, but would be a statement to other contenders that they are here to improve on their 2022 World Cup position, and even go all the way.
World Cup 2026 Betting Trends
According to Oddschecker data from the last 24 hours, England have attracted the highest share of bets in the World Cup outright market, accounting for approximately 29% of the total bets placed. The Three Lions’ dramatic victory over Mexico and their favourable side of the draw appear to have strengthened punters’ confidence ahead of the quarter-finals.
Argentina rank second with around 19% of bets received, followed by France on 13% and Norway on just under 10%. Spain have drawn about 6% of the betting activity, while Morocco account for roughly 3% of outright wagers over the same period. Despite England’s popularity among bettors, France continue to be widely regarded by bookmakers as the team to beat as the tournament enters its decisive phase.
