Rodri is back in the hunt for his second Ballon dOr trophy after handing France a 2-0 defeat in the World Cup Semi Finals.
Rodri's sensational World Cup campaign has transformed the Ballon d'Or market overnight, with the Spain midfielder seeing his odds slashed from 150/1 before the semi-final against France to as short as 14/1 following another commanding display in Spain's 2-0 victory. The 2024 Ballon d'Or holder was already enjoying an outstanding tournament, but his performance in guiding Spain into their first World Cup final since 2010 has sparked renewed belief that he could become a multiple-time winner of football's biggest individual prize.
Spain’s 2-0 win over France yesterday sent a clear message: Rodri was central to another composed, controlled performance on the big stage. In a match that demanded discipline and quality in midfield, he once again looked like the player who sets the rhythm for club and country.
Who is the Betting Favourite to Win 2026 Ballon dOr?
Despite Rodri's dramatic move, Harry Kane remains the bookmakers' favourite at 6/4. The England captain has enjoyed a remarkable campaign for both club and country and stands on the brink of leading England to a first World Cup final since 1966. Kane has scored six goals at the tournament and remains firmly in the Golden Boot race, while his leadership and consistency have strengthened his Ballon d'Or credentials throughout the season.
The closest challenger in the market is Lionel Messi at 9/2. Argentina's captain continues to produce on the biggest stage, leading the World Cup for total shots while sitting level at the top of the Golden Boot standings. If Messi guides Argentina to consecutive World Cup titles, few players would have a stronger claim to add a record-extending ninth Ballon d'Or to his collection.
Spain's exciting new generation is also well represented in the betting. Lamine Yamal is available at 5/1 after another outstanding international tournament, while Kylian Mbappé remains firmly in contention at 6/1 despite France's semi-final exit. Mbappé finished his World Cup campaign among the tournament's leading scorers, while Yamal has continued to establish himself as one of football's brightest young stars.
Rodri Keeps Spain Stable in the Biggest Moments
Manchester City star and Spain captain has made it a habit of delivering week in week out in major tournaments. He won the Ballon dOr in 2024, Euro 2024 including the Golden Ball, and is now getting back to his best in this World Cup.
Many feared that the former Atletico Madrid player might not be the same player after his ACL injury last year. However, he dominated a French team in the World Cup Semis that looked unstopabble on paper. Rodri's case is built differently to the attacking stars around him. Rather than relying on goals and assists, the Manchester City midfielder has dominated matches through control and consistency.
He leads the World Cup with 655 completed passes, has won 22 tackles, produced nine key passes, registered 11 clearances, and recovered possession 21 times in the middle third, with only Elliot Anderson and Granit Xhaka recording more. Higher up the pitch, he has also won possession five times in the attacking third, a figure bettered by only five players in the competition.
Ballon dOr 2026 Betting Trends
According to Oddschecker data from the last 24 hours, Rodri has attracted the overwhelming majority of support in the Ballon d'Or market, accounting for 61.7% of all bets placed.
England and Real Madrid star Jude Bellingham was the most backed player last week after a pair of braces against Mexico and Norway saw his odds reduce dramatically as well. He is a distant second with 14.0%, followed by Lionel Messi on 9.5%.
Kylian Mbappé has received 5.4% of bets, while Lamine Yamal rounds out the top five with 3.2%, highlighting just how much confidence punters have placed in Rodri's chances following Spain's run to the World Cup final.
