After the tournament favourites crashed out last night, how does the World Cup 2026 betting market look?
Spain are through, and they made it look easy. A France side built around Mbappe, Dembele, Barcola and Olise - the most dangerous front four left in the tournament - were shut out 2-0 in Dallas without ever laying a glove on Unai Simon's goal.
Mikel Oyarzabal opened the scoring from the penalty spot after Lucas Digne needlessly caught Lamine Yamal in the box, before Pedro Porro doubled the lead with a slick finish set up by Dani Olmo just after the hour.
France didn't force a save out of Simon until well into the second half.
It leaves Spain looking every bit the best team at this World Cup - and it's now England's turn to find out if this really is their year.
Thomas Tuchel's side face Argentina on Wednesday night knowing the winner walks into Sunday's final against a Spain team that has barely put a foot wrong all summer - but for England fans, that's almost beside the point right now.
Beat Argentina, and this side reaches a first World Cup final since 1966.
Who is the favourite to win the World Cup 2026?
Spain are a best price of 8/11 with AKbets.
De la Fuente's side have won 56% of their duels and 68% of their aerial battles across the tournament, numbers that back up what the eye test already tells you - this is a team beating opponents in every phase of the game, not just on the ball. They're unbeaten in 37 matches across all competitions, a joint European record, and have kept six clean sheets in seven World Cup games this summer.
Spain World Cup Winner Odds
8/11. Spain's semi-final win over France tells you why bookmakers have them this short. France didn't register a shot on target until the 81st minute, and Spain's front five, featuring Yamal, pulled the reigning European champions apart for large spells.
This Spain side has now beaten France in three straight semi-finals across the last two major tournaments and the Nations League.
If they win Sunday, it's the Euros-World Cup double last achieved by a European nation in 2010 - by Spain themselves.
England World Cup Winner Odds
16/5 (best price AKbets).
16/5. England's price tells you exactly where the bookies think this tournament is heading - very much alive, but needing everything to click. The case for backing them starts with two players in career-best form: Bellingham and Kane have scored 12 of England's 13 goals this summer, and if that strike rate holds up for two more games, England have more than enough firepower to beat anyone left in the draw, Spain included.
The case against is the same stat read the other way - this is a side with almost no secondary goal threat, and Tuchel has already admitted the win over Norway was littered with technical errors that a sharper Argentina or Spain side would punish.
Get past Argentina cleanly and with confidence restored, and England's odds to go all the way should shorten fast; stutter through another nervy knockout win and Sunday could look like Euro 2020 and Euro 2024 all over again.
This is England's first World Cup semi-final since 2018 and only their third since 1966.
Argentina World Cup Winner Odds
17/4 with AKbets. Argentina are priced as outsiders for a reason that has nothing to do with quality and everything to do with how they've been winning.
This is a team that has needed a grandstand finish to get out of the last two rounds - 2-0 down to Egypt with 11 minutes left before three late goals turned the tie around - and that kind of knockout football is thrilling to watch but a poor guide to backing a team to lift the trophy.
What keeps Argentina's odds respectable is Messi, still the difference-maker even at 39 and even having covered less ground at pace than any other outfield player in the tournament; he simply doesn't need to sprint to hurt you.
Where the money's gone since Dallas
The market has moved fast since Spain's win over France. Oddschecker reports 42% of outright winner bets placed since full-time in that game have backed Spain, with 34% on England and 24% on Argentina -England are being backed as the more likely of the two semi-finalists to get through and give Spain a game on Sunday.
