Vinicius Junior is back at Real Madrid training, but his long-term future is still very much up in the air.
Vinicius Junior is back in Madrid training, but the questions over his long-term future haven't gone anywhere. The Brazilian returned to Valdebebas on Monday following his World Cup break with Brazil, passing a routine medical before linking up with Jose Mourinho's squad for the first time this pre-season.
On the surface, it looked like business as usual. Beneath it, the uncertainty around his contract situation is as live as ever.
Vinicius has just a year left on the deal he signed in 2027, and a year and a half of on-off renewal talks have so far failed to produce an agreement. Real Madrid are reportedly prepared to let him leave this summer rather than risk losing him for nothing next year, and Arsenal have positioned themselves as the frontrunners if that happens.
Mikel Arteta is said to be a long-term admirer, and the Gunners' hierarchy have already sanctioned the financial framework needed to get a deal done. With pre-season now underway and Mourinho settling into his second spell in charge, the coming weeks look set to be decisive.
Vinicius Junior Next Club Odds
The prices tell their own story. Bookmakers still expect Vinicius to stay put at the Bernabeu, and it's not hard to see why. He's spent his entire European career there since arriving from Flamengo in 2018, he's won two Champions League titles in a Madrid shirt, and by his own camp's admission he'd rather stay if the numbers can be made to work. Arsenal, priced at 7/2, are very much the live alternative rather than the favourites, but a move of this size rarely stays under wraps for long, and those odds could shift fast depending on how talks between Madrid and his representatives progress.
Vinicius Junior to Arsenal Odds
Arsenal's interest isn't a snap decision, sources suggest they've been working on this behind the scenes for months.
Vinicius scored in both of his Champions League final appearances, in 2022 and 2024, and has hit more than 20 goals in each of his last five seasons. He'd also arrive with a point to prove against English opposition, having been part of the Madrid side beaten 5-1 on aggregate by Arteta's Arsenal in last season's Champions League quarter-finals.
The dressing room fit is there too. Arsenal already have Brazilians Gabriel Magalhaes, Gabriel Martinelli and Gabriel Jesus on the books, and are separately in talks with Newcastle over Bruno Guimaraes, another Brazil international.
Financially, this would be Arsenal's most eye-catching move under Arteta by some distance. Vinicius has previously turned down an offer from Madrid worth around €20m net a year, and Arsenal are reportedly ready to break their usual wage structure to get a deal over the line, with a sign-on fee and image rights package potentially sweetening the pot. Arsenal's ownership has already signed off on the figures required.
Will Vinicius Junior Leave Real Madrid?
The sticking point in Madrid has consistently been money, specifically, a renewal bonus that would be unprecedented in the club's history. Vinicius is said to be seeking a package close to €30m a year including bonuses, partly to close the gap with teammate Kylian Mbappe, who benefited from a signing bonus when he joined as a free agent in 2024. Madrid have resisted, wary of the knock-on effect it could have on future contract talks with other players.
There's also a football angle to watch. Vinicius reportedly struggled to see eye to eye with previous coach Xabi Alonso, at one point storming down the tunnel after being substituted against Barcelona. Whether his relationship with Mourinho proves smoother could yet shape his thinking. Madrid's move for RB Leipzig's Yan Diomande, seen by some as insurance in case Vinicius departs, is another detail some believe could push things toward a summer exit rather than a renewal.
For now, no date has been set for the next round of talks between Madrid's hierarchy and Vinicius's camp, though sources indicate a meeting is expected imminently. With Mourinho already overseeing pre-season training, Madrid drew 2-2 with Fiorentina at the weekend and face Ferencvaros next, the clock is ticking on a decision either way.
