Derby vs Birmingham Championship relegation odds prediction and market movement after the 1-2 result. Bookmakers now offer 13/5 on Derby to go down.
Derby's price in the Championship Relegation market has been slashed from 5/1 to just 13/5 with StarSportsBet after a third straight league defeat, this time a 2-1 home loss to Birmingham City.
Derby are now 13/5 (StarSportsBet) to go down, a sharp move in from 5/1 in the Championship Relegation market.
The Rams led through Bobby Clark on 40 minutes at Pride Park before Carlos Vicente equalised two minutes later.
Paik Seung-ho grabbed Birmingham's winner on 64 minutes to complete the turnaround.
Forward Henrik Meister was stretchered off in the second half and entered concussion protocols.
Here's the reality for Derby County: the loss to Birmingham was their third Championship defeat on the bounce, following reverses away to West Ham United and at home to West Bromwich Albion. That's the kind of run that turns a preseason afterthought into a genuine relegation contender, and the market has reacted accordingly. This is also a team that has now lost four of its last five games at Pride Park — a ground that is supposed to be a fortress, not a soft touch. When a side stops picking up points at home, the alarm bells start ringing loudly, and the sportsbooks moved fast.
The manner of it is what really moved the needle. Head coach John Eustace was blunt afterwards, pointing to defensive lapses, a failure to protect the far post, and set-piece vulnerability as the reasons his team let the game slip. Derby actually led this one before conceding twice, and that pattern — being on top, then unravelling at the back — is exactly what backers price in when they shorten a relegation number. Losing Meister to a head injury only sharpened the concern, and the shift from 5/1 to 13/5 reflects a squad that suddenly looks fragile where it matters most.
Derby Championship Relegation odds
Best odds on Derby in the Championship Relegation market sit at 13/5, available with both StarSportsBet and PricedUp, and there's no split to hunt for elsewhere — those two are level at the top of the board for this selection right now.
Last updated: 12 September 2026, 18:29 UK time
Odds below are live and may have changed since publishing this article.
Who are the favourites for Championship Relegation?
Derby's 13/5 makes them a live name in the conversation, but they are not yet the shortest price on the board — that reflects a club sitting near the foot of the table with just one win and one draw from their opening seven Championship matches. Below is how the front of the market lines up as things stand.
Preston – 4/5 (PricedUp), the current market favourite to drop.
Lincoln – 10/11 (PricedUp, StarSportsBet, William Hill), a widely-backed second name.
Bolton – 11/10 (StarSportsBet, Bet365, William Hill, PricedUp), tightly packed with the leaders.
Derby – 13/5 (StarSportsBet, PricedUp), the mover after three straight defeats.
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How do Derby avoid relegation?
The short-term picture is about steadying the ship at the back, and Eustace has a couple of things working in his favour despite the drift toward danger. Captain Carlton Morris returned to the starting lineup against Birmingham after a layoff with an injury picked up in August, and midfielder David Ozoh has been made a permanent signing to add steel to the spine of the team — both of which point to a squad trying to firm up rather than one falling apart. The immediate blow is losing Henrik Meister, who has been ruled out of the upcoming schedule to complete mandatory concussion protocols. If Eustace can fix the set-piece and far-post problems he called out and turn Pride Park back into a source of points, the 13/5 will start to look generous — but until the defending improves, the market is right to keep Derby firmly in the picture.
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