A deep dive into the key stat categories identifies the likeliest winner of the Masters 2023 at Augusta, but there is one problem for Niall Lyons.
Two weeks today we shall be in the throes of the first major of the season and with plenty to digest it pays to start the research early so we're not scrambling about in the dark come Masters Monday.
There will of course be nuggets of information that will leak over the next week and it'll be vital to see what weather materialises between now and then and who those conditions could suit.
That is difficult to quantify a few weeks beforehand but there are essential numbers we need to consider before entering the market for the Masters 2023.
Thankfully Augusta has stepped out of the dark ages a little recent years and strokes gained stats are now freely available. It doesn't paint a different picture to what we already knew but it's certainly worth taking a look at which categories were most important.
Which departments of the game contribute to a better finish?
Below we see the breakdown in how each department of the game contributes to the overall finishes of the top 10 during the past two years.
Masters 2022 - Stats for Top 10 finishers
| Position | Player | Putt | ATG | APP | OTT | T2G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scottie Scheffler | 13 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 2 |
| 2 | Rory McIlroy | 34 | 1 | 13 | 4 | 1 |
| T3 | Cameron Smith | 9 | 17 | 2 | 49 | 7 |
| T3 | Shane Lowry | 4 | 4 | 51 | 1 | 12 |
| 5 | Collin Morikawa | 22 | 8 | 8 | 20 | 3 |
| T6 | Corey Conners | 21 | 7 | 16 | 12 | 4 |
| T6 | Will Zalatoris | 6 | 10 | 40 | 16 | 19 |
| T8 | Justin Thomas | 12 | 11 | 7 | 47 | 16 |
| T8 | Sungjae Im | 11 | 21 | 24 | 14 | 20 |
| T10 | Charl Schwartzel | 30 | 12 | 5 | 43 | 9 |
| T10 | Cameron Champ | 20 | 34 | 11 | 8 | 13 |
| Average | 16.5 | 11.5 | 16.5 | 20.2 | 9.6 |
Masters 2021 - Stats for Top 10 finishers
| Position | Player | Putt | ATG | APP | OTT | T2G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hideki Matsuyama | 23 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 2 |
| 2 | Will Zalatoris | 7 | 31 | 9 | 5 | 7 |
| T3 | Xander Schauffele | 41 | 3 | 18 | 8 | 3 |
| T3 | Jordan Spieth | 53 | 1 | 7 | 9 | 1 |
| T5 | Jon Rahm | 28 | 9 | 39 | 1 | 4 |
| T5 | Marc Leishman | 20 | 7 | 6 | 47 | 6 |
| 7 | Justin Rose | 4 | 20 | 21 | 35 | 24 |
| T8 | Patrick Reed | 2 | 26 | 28 | 40 | 33 |
| T8 | Corey Conners | 35 | 48 | 1 | 16 | 5 |
| T10 | Cameron Smith | 34 | 8 | 18 | 21 | 9 |
| T10 | Tony Finau | 35 | 2 | 11 | 51 | 8 |
| Average | 25.6 | 14.4 | 14.7 | 22.7 | 9.2 |
Where are most approaches hit from at the Masters?
In 2021, 22.8% of approaches were hit from 150-175 yards and 20.6% from 175-200. This represents a huge percentage of the irons for the week. A similar story played out in 2022 with a combined 38% being hit from those brackets once again. The top 10 in proximity stats from those yardages are listed below.
| Approaching 150-175 | Approaching 175-200 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Xander Schauffele | 22' 8" | Jon Rahm | 29' 6" |
| Cameron Young | 22' 11" | Will Zalatoris | 29' 11" |
| Jon Rahm | 23' 5" | Collin Morikawa | 30' 6" |
| Tom Kim | 23' 9" | Xander Schauffele | 30' 9" |
| Jordan Spieth | 24' 1" | Si Woo Kim | 30' 10" |
| Si Woo Kim | 24' 7" | Cameron Young | 31' 1" |
| Gary Woodland | 24' 10" | Scott Stallings | 31' 2" |
| Tom Hoge | 25' 2" | Keegan Bradley | 31' 4" |
| J.T. Poston | 25' 6" | Rory McIlroy | 31' 9" |
| Corey Conners | 25' 8" | Tony Finau | 31' 10" |
It was no secret prior to these last couple of years but there is little room for error in any department of the game from the tee, until you reach the green. In 2021 only one player who ranked inside the top 10 on the greens finished in the top five (Zalatoris).
Scheffler ranked 13th on the greens last year, while runner up McIlroy ranked 34th. There is a clear distance between putting and the other departments, so when you hear the commentators mention you need to putt really well around here, you simply don't. An average week on the greens will do should your long game play to a different tune.
Strokes gained tee to green (off the tee+approach+around the green) differentiates the contenders from the nearly men at Augusta. Approach play has always been talked about but it is interesting to note that work around the greens has ranked a shade more important than approach play.
Off the tee is the least relevant aspect of the tee to green combination at Augusta, so I'm going to rank the top 20 T2G over the past three months who gain most from around the green and on approach. A couple have not qualified as of yet so I'll list those who will be there in a few weeks’ time.
The T2G table toppers in focus
| Name | ATG | APP | T2G | Average ATG/APP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | 15 | 2 | 1 | 8.5 |
| Rory McIlroy | 46 | 9 | 2 | 27 |
| Jon Rahm | 19 | 5 | 3 | 12 |
| Collin Morikawa | 57 | 3 | 4 | 30 |
| Patrick Cantlay | 43 | 20 | 5 | 31 |
| Max Homa | 58 | 1 | 6 | 29 |
| Tony Finau | 60 | 8 | 7 | 34 |
| Jason Day | 1 | 45 | 8 | 23 |
| Justin Thomas | 2 | 24 | 9 | 13 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | 88 | 15 | 11 | 51 |
| Viktor Hovland | 113 | 12 | 12 | 62 |
| Cameron Young | 94 | 21 | 13 | 57 |
| Jordan Spieth | 12 | 17 | 16 | 14 |
| Wyndham Clark | 31 | 13 | 17 | 22 |
| Chris Kirk | 10 | 14 | 18 | 12 |
| Sungjae Im | 18 | 37 | 19 | 27 |
| Xander Schauffele | 29 | 11 | 20 | 20 |
Scheffler ranks 1st which is of no surprise. Rahm, Thomas, Kirk, Spieth and Schauffele are next in line. Kirk more than likely doesn't have the power to compete at Augusta so if we eliminate him we are left with five of the best.
- Scheffler 8/1
- Rahm 8/1
- Thomas 22/1
- Spieth 18/1
- Schauffele 25/1
This doesn't make the puzzle much easier to solve so let's see which of these five golfers fit some other trends that look necessary for a title tilt between the pines.
- Nine of the last 11 winners had posted a top 10 across their three previous starts prior to winning – the only exceptions were Matsuyama and Garcia, who won the Dubai Desert Classic five starts previous to his win over Rose
- All winners this century had a previous top 40 at the Masters
- Seven of the last 11 winners had a previous top 10 at the Masters
- Six of last 11 winners had won earlier that season
- Excluding the November Masters, eight of the last 11 winners had not missed a cut that year
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Unless Rahm posts a top 10 at the Matchplay he is kicked out by not having posted a top 10 in three starts, although that may be harsh as he was forced to withdraw at Sawgrass because of an illness.
The rest are eliminated for not landing a win this season. It leaves Scheffler, the tournament favourite being the man to beat in all departments. One must urge a little caution with the defending champion though if you look at subsequent finishes for winners over the last 10 years.
| YEAR | WINNER | SUBSEQUENT MASTERS FINISHES |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Scheffler | ? |
| 2021 | Matsuyama | 14 |
| 2020 | Dustin Johnson | MC-12 |
| 2019 | Tiger Woods | 38-DNP-47 |
| 2018 | Patrick Reed | 36-10-8-35 |
| 2017 | Sergio Garcia | MC-MC-DNP-MC-23 |
| 2016 | Danny Willett | MC-MC-MC-25-MC-12 |
| 2015 | Jordan Spieth | 2-11-3-21-46-3-MC |
| 2014 | Bubba Watson | 38-37-MC-5-12-57-26-39 |
| 2013 | Adam Scott | 14-38-42-9-32-18-34-54-48 |
As we can see above only once since 2013 has the defending champion posted a top 10 finish the following year. It's difficult to pinpoint a reason for this but it is quite possible the Champions dinner is a distraction from the beginning of the week and preparation may not be as perfect as you'd hope.
Throw in the par 3 event that many friends and family want to participate in and you have a busy week for the defending champion before you even deal with the media obligations that a returning winner will have.
Of course, there have been exceptions to this before 2013 and there will be more to come but the question is whether Scheffler can find some balance come tournament week with his obligations sure to rock his equilibrium.
Next week I'll take a dive into the non majors winners and pinpoint who is the most likely to land his first major victory at Augusta. The countdown is on!
