All the trends point towards one man becoming the next first time major winner of the US Open, reveals oddschecker golf tipster Niall Lyons.
We are halfway through Major Championship season with the best two yet to come in the US Open at LA Country Club and The Open at Royal Liverpool. Majors in California are always welcome as we have a bank of form in the state that can usually be relied upon.
Jon Rahm was the latest to frank his form at Torrey Pines by backing up his win there in the Farmers then obliging on the same track at the 2021 US Open. First of all we'll list the previous champions since 2012 and spot the key trends.
Previous US Open Winners – Betting Trends
| Winners | Season Best Prior to US Open Win | First Time Major Winner? | Previous Major Finish |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fitzpatrick 2022 | 2nd Wells Fargo Championship | Yes | 5th PGA |
| Rahm 2021 | 5th Masters *Withdrew Memorial with 6 shot lead after 54 holes* | Yes | 8th PGA |
| Dechambeau 2020 | Won Rocket Mortgage | Yes | 4th PGA |
| Woodland 2019 | 2nd Sentry TOC | Yes | 8th PGA (PGA moved to May) |
| Koepka 2018 | 2nd Fortworth (Injury meant he only played 5 times before US Open) | No | 13th PGA |
| Koepka 2017 | 2nd Texas Open | Yes | 11th Masters |
| Johnson 2016 | 3rd Memorial | Yes | 4th Masters |
| Spieth 2015 | Won Hyundai TOC | No | Won Masters |
| Kaymer 2014 | Won TPC Sawgrass | Yes | 31st Masters |
| Rose 2013 | 2nd Arnold Palmer | Yes | 25th Masters |
| Simpson 2012 | 3rd Hyundai TOC | Yes | 44th Masters |
It's a broken record on these trends articles but I can't stress enough how important the previous major result is. Hovland was in the final group at the 2022 Open Championship then the penultimate group at the 2023 Masters and once again in the final group at the USPGA.
Koepka fought it out with Rahm in the final group at the Masters in April and that provided the perfect stepping stone to landing another major next time out at Oak Hill.
Hovland improved upon poor efforts on Sundays at St Andrews and Augusta to give Koepka a real run for his money in New York but ultimately ran out of luck when bunkered off the tee on the 70th hole. Nevertheless, it looked like one of those efforts that could catapult him towards landing the big one.
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15 of the last 18 winners of this event have been first time major winners and it pays to focus on those who have yet to win one and fit the trends. The last eight winners of this event have also finished inside the top 13 in their previous major finish.
Going back to 2012 the last 11 winners have all had a top five finish posted earlier that season and we can narrow that down to a top three if we take into account the fact Rahm had a six-shot lead at the Memorial before succumbing to the dreaded Covid test. We can safely assume he'd have won there, or at least finished in the top three.
Let's take a look at the USPGA result and see who fits these trends.
US PGA Championship Leaderboard – Betting Trends
| US PGA Result | Player | Season Best | Top 13 Previous Major | Season Top 3 | Non Major Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | B. Koepka | Won USPGA | Y | Y | N |
| T2 | V. Hovland | Won Hero World Challenge | Y | Y | Y |
| T2 | S. Scheffler | 2 Wins | Y | Y | N |
| T4 | B. DeChambeau | 4th USPGA | Y | N | N |
| T4 | K. Kitayama | Won Arnold Palmer | Y | Y | Y |
| T4 | C. Davis | 4th USPGA | Y | N | Y |
| T7 | S. Straka | 2nd Sanderson Farms | Y | Y | Y |
| T7 | R. McIlroy | Won CJ Cup | Y | Y | N |
| T9 | J. Rose | Won Pebble Beach | Y | Y | N |
| T9 | P. Cantlay | 2nd Shriners | Y | Y | Y |
| T9 | C. Smith | Won Australian PGA | Y | Y | N |
| T12 | V. Perez | Won Abu Dhabi | Y | Y | N |
| T12 | C. Conners | Won Texas Open | Y | Y | N |
| T12 | S. Lowry | 5th Honda Classic | Y | N | N |
Hovland, Kitayama, Straka, Cantlay, Perez and Conners fit all these trends mentioned above. Undoubtedly one of the best form lines you can draw in California is previous form in the state and it'll no doubt become a narrative over the next few weeks, especially involving Max Homa.
Below I've listed those who hit the trends and their California form dating back to 2021.
Results in California Venues
| Player | Genesis 23 | Pebble 23 | Farmers 23 | Amex 23 | Fortinet 22 | Genesis 22 | Pebble 22 | Farmers 22 | Amex 22 | US Open 21 | Fortinet 21 | Genesis 21 | Pebble 21 | Farmers 21 | Amex 21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hovland | 13 | 42 | 4 | MC | 5 | 2 | |||||||||
| Kitayama | MC | 29 | MC | MC | MC | MC | |||||||||
| Cantlay | 3 | 26 | 33 | 4 | 9 | 15 | 15 | 3 | 2 | ||||||
| Straka | 45 | 15 | 16 | 49 | MC | 43 | 32 | MC | |||||||
| Perez | MC | ||||||||||||||
| Conners | 61 | MC | MC | MC | MC | MC | MC | 37 |
Conners, Straka and Kitayama have sketchy enough form around these parts and it's alarming they've shown very little here under these conditions in the past few years. Perez has played the majority of his career on the DP World Tour so is difficult to quantify in this category. Hovland has three top fives in his last six starts but Cantlay trumps them all with four top four finishes, one further top 10 and two more top 20 finishes.
He also has a win at Sherwood and hasn't missed a cut in California in his last 16 starts. Throw in the fact he is becoming a lot more consistent in these majors with two top 10s and two top 20s in his last four tries and we have the man whom all the trends point towards to be the next first time major winner of the US Open Championship.
