The 2023 John Deere Classic is the next event on the PGA Tour schedule. Matt MacKay brings us his PGA Power Rankings ahead of Round 1 on Thursday.
After watching Rickie Fowler end his four-year win drought with a one-hole playoff win over Collin Morikawa and Adam Hadwin at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, the PGA Tour picks up and relocates to its next event in the Midwest at the 2023 John Deere Classic.
Located in Silvis, Illinois, TPC Deere Run is a par 71 track that is expected to be another birdie fest, similar to what we saw at Detroit Golf Club this past weekend.
PGA Power Rankings: Top 5 Golfers for 2023 John Deere Classic
J.T. Poston will attempt to defend his title at the John Deere Classic. He won with a comfortable three-stroke lead last year, despite only going -2-under-par in the final round, utilising his scorching hot -9-under-par first round to cruise to his second outright career win on the PGA Tour.
It's been an underwhelming season for Poston, plus we'll see nine of the top 50 ranked golfers in OWGR compete at TPC Deere Run this week, which is the most in over a decade.
Cameron Young (14/1) is currently the outright betting favourite for the John Deere Classic, followed by Denny McCarthy (16/1), Russell Henley (18/1), Ludvig Aberg (20/1) and Adam Hadwin.
14 of the previous John Deere Classic events were only won by one stroke or decided in a playoff, with the exception coming from Michael Kim in 2018. Kim went -27-under-par to win by eight strokes en route to setting numerous PGA Tour records.
Click here to read Niall Lyons' John Deere Classic tips and preview.
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He'll be teeing off at 60/1 outright odds. Other previous outright winners expected in the field this week include Lucas Glover (75/1), Dylan Frittelli (180/1), Ryan Moore (150/1), and local favourite Zach Johnson (80/1), who recorded an outright win at -20-under-par back in 2012.
Now, let's assess TPC Deere Run's course layout. Afterward, we will review the current outright betting odds leaderboard, then reveal five of my favourite golfers to bet on and explain why each one is worth wagering on ahead of Thursday's opening round at the John Deere Classic.
Let's keep the momentum going after successfully predicting Fowler's outright win at Detroit Golf Club with five more outright bets at the 2023 John Deere Classic.
John Deere Classic Course Preview
TPC Deere Run is a par 71 that runs just short of 7,300 yards in length. Designed by D.A. Weibring, this track has been a mainstay on the PGA Tour schedule since its inaugural event was held in 1996. Built on land that used to be an Arabian horse farm, there is quite a bit of elevation at TPC Deere Run, as it's sandwiched between Rock River and the iconic Mississippi River.
The course opens with a couple of easy holes, starting with the first hole - a par 4 that runs 396 yards, followed by the 562-yard par 5-second hole. The front-nine and back-nine each have three consecutive par 4s, while the back-nine offers two par 5s, compared to only one on the front-nine.
Water hazards appear from time to time, but the main hazard is the sprawling sand bunkers that flank the fairways and small-sized greens. Most of the fairways are doglegged, so ball striking off of the tee will be important, but the width of these fairways is a bit more forgiving than we've seen at other recent courses.
Tree-lined fairways and thick rough will punish errant lies off the tee, so strokes gained off the tee are essential. Finding greens in regulations is always a plus, especially when they are on the smaller side of the average.
2023 John Deere Classic Odds
| Player | Best Odds | Worst Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Denny McCarthy | 16/1 | 12/1 |
| Russell Henley | 16/1 | 12/1 |
| Cameron Young | 20/1 | 16/1 |
| Ludvig Aberg | 25/1 | 18/1 |
| Adam Hadwin | 28/1 | 20/1 |
John Deere Classic Power Rankings | Matt MacKay Outright Bets
Denny McCarthy
Denny McCarthy has been coming up just short in recent events, logging finishes of second place and T7 at the Memorial Tournament and Travelers Championship. The 30-year-old American has one of the best putters on the PGA Tour, ranking fourth in strokes gained putting, which is always appealing at a course that cedes a lot of birdies and eagles.
McCarthy logged a T6 finish at TPC Deere Run in 2022, going -5-under-par or better in each of the first three rounds before falling flat with an even-par 71 in the final round. McCarthy has been sharp lately, also ranking ninth in scrambling, sixth in total putting, and 16th in bogey avoidance. Plus, he's ranked 14th in scoring average at 69.7 this season. McCarthy is chalk for a reason this week.
Let's ride his 14/1 odds accordingly, which just so happens to be the same value we got for Rickie Fowler ahead of his opening round at the RMC last week.
Adam Schenk
Last year, Adam Schenk withdrew from the John Deere Classic due to a terrible +6-over-par opening round. I have little concern about betting on Schenk this time around, as he's been red-hot lately, recording finishes of second-place, T7, MC, MC, and T7 in his last five events. Yes, the missed cuts indicate volatility, which is why we are getting lucrative 30/1 odds for Schenk's outright probability.
Still, Schenk logged a T4 finish at TPC Deere Run in 2021, plus he's got plenty of stats to convince most sceptics he can finally grab his first PGA Tour outright win since turning professional eight years ago. Schenk is ranked 38th in total strokes gained, including 41st putting, while also ranking 11th in total birdies this season. Let's invest confidently at 30/1, especially since Schenk has performed well at this course in the past, along with three T7 finishes or better since late May.
Eric Cole
If we're looking for birdies and eagles, look no further than Eric Cole. The 35-year-old Californian has been relying on his putter and short game to keep him near the top of leaderboards lately, securing previous finishes of T24, T6, T39, and T24 entering the John Deere Classic this week. He didn't compete at this event in 2022 while missing the cut at +1-over-par in 2021.
I'm not phased at all. And here's why. Cole ranks 51st in strokes gained tee-to-green, 25th around the green, and 17th in putting. He's also ranked second in total hole outs, 12th in scrambling, 21st in sand save percentage, and 16th in birdie or better conversion rate. Cole has started and finished strong this season, which makes him one of my favourite players to bet outright on the 2023 John Deere Classic.
Stephan Jaeger
It took a while, but Stephan Jaeger kicked his play into the next gear during the final round of the Rocket Mortgage Classic last week. The German golfer went nine-under-par after failing to score lower than -4-under-par in the first three rounds. Jaeger went T30 at TPC Deere Run in 2022, following a similar trend of waiting until the final round to go off.
He's a finesse player, ranked ninth in strokes gained around the green, 30th tee-to-green, and 16th finding greens in regulation. Jaeger is ranked 30th in scoring average at 70.2 while ranking first in total birdies, sinking 352 of them this season. He's ranked sixth in Round 1 scoring average, so expect a quick start and a strong finish. We just need Jaeger to be consistent in the middle rounds. At 40/1, he's worth sprinkling on as he seeks his first PGA Tour win.
Callum Tarren
Callum Tarren is one of the most underrated ball strikers on the PGA Tour. The 32-year-old Englishman only has one T10 finish this season, but he's got a great skillset that aligns nicely at TPC Deere Run. Tarren went T6 at this event last season, regressing in the final round, going -1-under-par after going -12-under-par in the middle rounds.
This year, Tarren does not have a lot of appealing metrics, but he's ranked 23rd in driving distance, 16th club head speed, and fourth in approach shots from 125-150 yards and putting from nine feet. He's 100/1 for a reason, but he could easily get hot at this course, where Tarren has sustained success in previous outings. Let's sprinkle accordingly on his long outright odds.
Click here for the best John Deere Classic odds through oddschecker.
