PGA handicapper Matt MacKay is here with his latest power rankings ahead of Round 1 on Thursday from East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, Georgia.
PGA Power Rankings: Top 5 Golfers For 2023 Tour Championship
The final 30 players inside the FedExCup rankings are set to compete for an $18 million first-place purse, with millions more to claim in the last event of the 2023 PGA Tour season. Unlike the first two FedExCup playoff events, the Tour Championship features a staggered scoring format, with Scottie Scheffler, ranked No. 1 in the FedExCup, beginning his first round at -10-under-par.
Viktor Hovland's impressive win at the BMW Championship catapulted him to No. 2 in the FedExCup, meaning he'll start at -8-under-par. This applies to all 30 golfers, as the bottom five (26th-30th) will begin Thursday at even par.
There's a ton of financial incentive to compete despite the staggered scoring format. It rewards golfers for their entire body of work over a grueling season that started back in September 2022. Last year, we saw Rory McIlroy win the FedExCup, going 11-under-par in the final two rounds at East Lake Golf Club to defeat Sungjae Im and Scottie Scheffler by one stroke.
Golfers should be aggressive throughout the weekend, playing without an enforced cut line and simply trying to climb the final leaderboard to earn anywhere from $500,000 to $18 million based on their final finishing position on Sunday afternoon.
It's shaping up to be an exciting finish to an incredibly entertaining season, as Scheffler and Jon Rahm dominated consistently, while Hovland's late push with two outright wins, including a -9-under-par final round at Olympia Fields, has resulted in him leapfrogging McIlroy and Rahm to inch closer to winning his first ever FedExCup.
Let's find out when the opening tee times will be and how to watch, then look at the top outright betting odds. We'll spend some time doing a course review of East Lake Golf Club, followed by the final top-five power rankings to pinpoint the golfers to bet outright ahead of the 2023 PGA Tour Championship.
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Tour Championship Course Guide
East Lake GC is a par 70 that runs roughly 7,400 yards in length. Much like its previous playoff counterparts, the fairways are narrow, while the greens are much smaller than the average square footage seen at regular season PGA Tour events. The fairways aren't as consistently doglegged, but thick rows of trees and plenty of water will create a difficult test to pass.
Sand bunkers litter the fairways and flank the greens, enforcing precision off the tee and on approach. Plus, several holes, especially the par 3 15th, feature water hazards that are set up to create leaderboard chaos. Being able to find greens in regulation will be imperative while avoiding the rough and tree-lined fairways goes a long way toward setting up birdie and eagle attempts. East Lake ends with one of its two par 5 holes, running nearly 600 yards in length, which will also create an entertaining finish to each round.
2023 Tour Championship Odds
| Name | Best Price | Worst Price |
|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | 13/8 | 5/4 |
| Rory McIlory | 7/2 | 3/1 |
| Viktor Hovland | 5/1 | 11/8 |
| Jon Rahm | 8/1 | 7/1 |
| Patrick Cantlay | 20/1 | 14/1 |
Tour Championship Power Rankings | Matt MacKay Outright Bets
Scottie Scheffler 13/8
Yes, wagering on Scottie Scheffler is the definition of chalk at 13/8 atop the outright PGA Tour betting markets. However, it's still plus money, while Scheffler will attempt to hold onto his No. 1 ranked two-stroke lead with Hovland, McIlroy, and Rahm in his rearview. Scheffler has a ridiculous 16 T10 finishes this season, including two outright wins, but he's yet to secure a FedExCup victory.
Ranked first in total strokes gained, including off-the-tee, approach, and tee-to-green, Scheffler is the best ball striker we've seen in decades. Overcoming the putting inconsistency is key to betting his short odds, but I see several scenarios where the Texas native does enough to take home the hardware. We can wait for a slow start to get better odds; however, Scheffler tends to start fast, so let's jump on this number before it flips to minus odds on most sportsbooks.
Viktor Hovland 5/1
Last year, Viktor Hovland started much lower than -8-under-par, but he rallied in the final three rounds after a +1 start, winding up T15. The Norwegian is fresh off of a blistering round of 61 at Olympia Fields, where he sunk seven birdies on the back nine thanks to strong approach shots with his irons.
East Lake presents a similar opportunity to replicate this feat, so at 5/1, combined with his highest start in the Tour Championship to date, I like betting on Hovland's outright odds this week. His putter is much better of late, and we don't have to worry about his ball striking or driving, so let's bet a unit on Hovland's outright odds at 5/1 on Paddy Power.
Max Homa 33/1
Max Homa is a difficult player to assess. On the one hand, he has multiple outright wins this season, including a couple of podium finishes that could've added a couple more to his resumé. Despite these accolades, Homa can be a bit shaky and inconsistent, which is why we're landing good value at 35/1 odds for his outright win.
Last year at East Lake, Homa logged a T5 finish, going -16-under-par in the final three rounds to nearly contend for the FedExCup title. His putting is an asset, so at this number, I'm willing to wager a unit on Homa's lucrative outright odds.
Matt Fitzpatrick 50/1
Another player who can be inconsistent but delivers incredible iron play is Matt Fitzpatrick. The Englishman has an outright win at the RBC Heritage earlier in the spring, plus he was in contention until the last couple of holes at the BMW Championship this past weekend.
Fitzpatrick ranks 13th in strokes gained putting, 34th around the green, and 17th in scrambling. 55/1 is really good value for a player of his caliber in a field this light, so despite starting at -4-under-par this week, six strokes behind Scheffler, I'm willing to lay half a unit on Fitzpatrick's 50/1 outright odds at East Lake. After all, he carded a six-under-par opening round here in 2022.
Russell Henley 60/1
My favorite longshot golfer this week is Russell Henley, who can get into a rhythm when least expected. The Georgia native will likely have a big crowd supporting him at East Lake, while he'll start at -3-under-par thanks to recording three consecutive T8 finishes or better since the Wyndham Championship.
Henley won the World Wide Technology Championship back in November at -23-under-par, plus he's ranked 17th strokes gained tee-to-green, 31st approaching the green, and 24th around the green. Ranking 27th greens in regulation and third-hole proximity is icing on the cake at this ridiculous number, so let's wager a quarter unit at 110/1 odds.
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